Continuous decline leading up to the God of Wealth Day

Gold price update at the close of trading on February 18th: Continuous decline ahead of the God of Wealth Day. — Gold price update at the close of trading on February 18. (Illustrative image: Phan Anh)

Domestic gold prices

Domestic gold price trends. Chart: Khuong Duy

Last week, domestic gold prices plummeted, combined with the very high buy-sell spread last week, resulting in heavy losses for investors.

If an investor bought gold at DOJI Group on February 11th at 78.85 million VND/ounce and sold it today (February 18th), they would have incurred a loss of 2.8 million VND/ounce. Meanwhile, those who bought gold at Saigon Jewelry Company (SJC) would also have lost 2.9 million VND/ounce.

The current difference between the buying and selling price of gold is listed around 2.5-2.6 million VND/ounce. This difference is considered very high. Investors face the risk of losses when investing in the short term.

World gold prices

World gold price trends. Chart: Khuong Duy

Gold price forecast

Fourteen analysts participating in the Kitco News and Wall Street Gold Survey see little upside potential for gold in the near future.

Only three people, or 21%, expect to see higher gold prices next week. Meanwhile, eight analysts, or 57%, predict a price drop, and three other experts, or 21%, predict gold prices will trade sideways during this period.

221 votes were cast in Kitco's online polls, with a majority of investors remaining optimistic. 94 retail investors, or 42%, expect gold to rise next week. Another 72, or 33%, predict lower prices. Meanwhile, 55 respondents, or 25%, hold a neutral view on the short-term outlook for the precious metal.

Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said he would be watching Chinese investors after they return from the Lunar New Year holiday. He said, “Gold could struggle in the short term as expectations of interest rate cuts are easing, but overall, I look forward to seeing how Chinese investors react to slightly lower prices next week.”

Notably, James Stanley, senior market strategist at Forex.com, remains optimistic about gold's short-term outlook: “I think we’ll see the Fed continue its dovish policy, and that’s positive for gold. The test of spot gold prices below $2,000 this week has shown that.”

Everett Millman, Director of Market Analysis at Gainesville Coins, stated: “Part of it may be that the market realized it overreacted to the downturn. Both the PPI and the US CPI that we recently received were hotter than expected, all contributing to a stronger-than-expected US economy . That’s really negative for gold.”

Aside from weekly jobless claims figures and a handful of Fed spokespersons, next week promises to be a quiet one in terms of data, with the release of the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday being the only significant event on the schedule.

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