Can Arsenal bounce back?

TPO - Dropping points in the final minutes against bottom-of-the-table Wolves has put Arsenal under immense pressure in the Premier League title race against Man City. Although they still sit five points ahead, their own confidence has been shaken.

Trembling under pressure

Wednesday's trip to Molineux highlighted the issues that leave Arsenal vulnerable in the title race – particularly their failure to capitalize on advantage and their inability to cope with the pressure of the game.

"The gap" is a term frequently used by manager Mikel Arteta and his players since Arsenal became title contenders in the 2022-23 season. Initially, their goal was to close the gap with Man City. Over time, the task has become how to widen that gap this season, but maintaining this consistently has been a challenge for Arsenal since the start of the winter transfer window.

At the turn of the year, they topped the list for the most times leading by one goal when matches went into the final 15 minutes of Premier League games this season (8 times). In their recent match against Wolves, they reached their 9th such instance, the second highest in the league currently.

Arsenal only dropped points in these two games, against Sunderland and Wolves – both away from home – but received warning signs in two consecutive home games where they beat Brentford and Wolves earlier in December. In both of those matches, Arteta's side led 1-0 in the final 15 minutes, creating tension at the Emirates. They scored second goals against both teams later, but Wolves equalized 1-1 after Arsenal players seemed to hesitate between defending to protect their lead or attacking to finish off their opponents.

A familiar sense of unease permeated their performance in the second half at Molineux.

Arsenal dropped points against bottom-placed team after leading by two goals.

In the opening minutes of the second half, Arsenal repeatedly launched long balls from their own half. Both center-backs William Saliba and Gabriel, along with goalkeeper Raya, tried to get the ball as quickly as possible towards Wolves' final third. Wolves' defenders won every challenge against Viktor Gyokeres. With the striker proving ineffective, the Wolves players gained even more confidence to attack Arsenal's defense at high speed. This confidence was further fueled by the passionate support of the fans in the stands.

Arsenal perform best away from home, silencing their own fans. But the Gunners' actions at Molineux only fueled the atmosphere, as they blatantly wasted time and inexplicably cleared the ball away.

“We held our ground, and that was really important,” Wolves manager Rob Edwards told reporters after the game. “We want the players to be more aggressive. We felt this was the right time to do that: to play with more emotion. And I think we did a lot of that at the start of the second half.”

“We know they are under a lot of pressure right now, and at the right time, we can go forward and play more possession. To be honest, we probably could have done that much sooner than expected.”

This isn't the first time such behavior has occurred. The Arsenal players' failure to follow Arteta's instructions to slow down in the final 10 minutes of the game is reminiscent of an issue he raised after the goalless draw with Nottingham Forest last month, where a lack of composure in regaining possession led to chaos.

"If I ask them what we have to do now, what the game demands, they all know, but we were unable to do that throughout the match," Arteta said when asked about how his players could improve their emotional control during matches.

A question mark over courage

Knowing the answer and still failing shows the difficulty of the task Arsenal faces. Even neutral observers might predict Arsenal would easily beat Wolves, regardless of the game situation after half an hour.

Coach Arteta knows his players' problems, but he can't "fix" them.

Edwards's view that Arsenal would be under pressure was brought up with Arteta. “That’s obvious, isn’t it?” the Spaniard replied. “If you’re at the top, you have to win, you have to win, and win, and win. So, that’s nothing new.”

Creating larger lead margins and displaying greater composure are crucial for Arsenal to regain their winning form consistently. Arsenal had numerous opportunities to pull ahead before the January transfer window. Before successfully signing Semenyo and Guehi, Man City consistently faltered, but then Arsenal also dropped points.

In their last eight Premier League matches, Arsenal have only won three (four draws, one loss). From having the opportunity to pull 11 points ahead of Man City in round 22, the Gunners now face the risk of Pep Guardiola's team closing the gap to just two points. The two teams will face each other directly at the Etihad in mid-April, and Arsenal fans are feeling more anxious than ever.

In the two seasons they competed directly with Man City in the Premier League (2022-23 and 2023-24), Pep Guardiola's team scored 94 and 96 goals respectively. It's noteworthy that Erling Haaland contributed 63 goals (33%) to that total of 190 goals, but even this season, Arsenal still scored fewer goals per game (1.92) than City (1.96) despite being 5 points ahead of the second-placed team.

Based on a basic estimate of an average of 1.92 goals per game in 38 matches, the number would be 73, still far short of the two most recent league-winning teams, City and Liverpool last season (86).

The key to recovery

Arsenal's expected goals difference (xGD), which compares the number of goals they should have scored and conceded, has been raised as a concern regarding their last 11 Premier League matches over the past three seasons. Their value of -0.47 is lower than any other team currently playing in the Premier League over the same period.

Gyokeres failed to live up to Arsenal's expectations.

If they want to improve on that record this spring, the final stretch of the 2023-24 season could provide the best inspiration. Arsenal won nine of their last eleven games that season, compared to just five in the 2022-23 and 2024-25 seasons.

Two key factors behind Arsenal's impressive form in the 2023-24 season were the surge in goals from set pieces following their pre-season training in Dubai in January and the repositioning of Kai Havertz. These goal-scoring methods can't be considered entirely new, but Arteta has shown some innovations that could help Arsenal widen the points gap when they need it most.

First, there's Havertz. Instead of just playing as a central striker, his role as a second striker has helped connect the whole team in a way that others struggle with when he's absent. Another (recent) new idea is to use Bukayo Saka in the center because it puts him closer to the goal, while also making it harder for opponents to predict his intentions. Using both players in similar positions has created many goals and scoring opportunities.

Saka impressed at number 10.

Arteta has indicated that Havertz is likely to feature in the game against Tottenham next week, so once he recovers, it could present a different tactical dilemma for Arteta. Could they partner together, with Havertz as the central striker and Saka behind him, or will one of them be sidelined? This combination is unseen, but it might be necessary given what each player brings to the team.

One of the benefits of using Havertz as a striker is that he creates a platform for the team's play. Within the first 20 seconds of the game against Sunderland, Raya delivered a long pass to him. Havertz's excellent control of the ball immediately created a scoring opportunity for Arsenal. It was an effective method to help Arsenal attack according to Arteta's ideas, but Gyokeres has failed to provide the Gunners with the same kind of platform in matches where they needed it.

Arteta is undoubtedly thinking about these things, but one thing is clear: Arsenal cannot continue to give opponents the chance to turn things around. There were signs of what could happen if they continued like this earlier in the season. Now, these defeats threaten to become the main story of the entire season.

Arsenal currently lead by five points, but Man City have a game in hand. To maintain this slender advantage, Arteta and his players understand that a quick and positive change is necessary.

Source: https://tienphong.vn/lieu-arsenal-co-the-dung-day-post1821947.tpo