A series of information is about to be released that both stock and gold investors are paying close attention to.

September is a volatile month with a host of events that could impact financial markets, from stocks to gold.

Many notable information are expected this September - Photo: AI

International events affect stocks and gold

Domestic analysts agree that important US economic reports will shape the sentiment of financial markets, including stocks and gold, in the coming time.

As for August unemployment claims data, which will be released on September 4 (US time), it will provide a clear view of the health of the labor market.

Earlier on August 21, Reuters news agency reported that the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the US increased the most in the past three months, while the number of people continuing to receive unemployment benefits also reached a four-year high.

Just one day later, on September 5, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce the unemployment rate, a key indicator to assess the economy.

The biggest attention will be on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on September 16-17.

Experts from Barclays and JP Morgan have predicted that the Fed will likely cut interest rates for the first time this year. This decision will have a profound impact, especially on the gold and stock markets.

Along with the Fed, the European Central Bank (ECB) will also announce its interest rate decision on September 11.

Despite the lack of volatility in inflation in the euro area, most forecasts suggest that the ECB will maintain its benchmark interest rate at current levels.

Any signals from the ECB are worth watching, as they can affect the USD/EUR exchange rate, thereby indirectly affecting gold prices.

According to experts at Vietcombank Securities (VCBS), the Fed's reduction of pressure on the interbank market as the treasury bill tool is becoming less effective, at the same time creates room for the State Bank to continue maintaining a low interest rate policy until the end of the year.

Many other events in the country

Domestically, September is the time when large ETFs such as Vaneck and FTSE restructure their portfolios. This activity often causes strong fluctuations for stocks in the index basket, creating both opportunities and risks for investors.

In addition, the VN30 futures contract expiring in September is also an important factor. This is the time to rebalance cash flows, often creating large fluctuations and an opportunity for derivatives investors to take advantage of.

One of the most anticipated events in Vietnam this month is the release of third quarter GDP figures at the end of September.

This data will reflect the health and recovery speed of the Vietnamese economy after the first 9 months of the year, and is the basis for assessing the stock market outlook in the coming time.

With the speed of market reaction becoming faster and faster, it is essential to have a good grasp of the economic calendar.

This helps investors be more proactive in managing risks and taking advantage of potential opportunities, especially in markets sensitive to monetary policy and economic data such as stocks and gold.

Stocks are still expected to rise to 1,854 points.

Vietcombank Securities (VCBS) uses the average of Asia- Pacific P/E valuation as a basis for comparison to value the Vietnamese stock market.

In recent years, the VN-Index has often been valued at a level equivalent to the regional average. Based on this, VCBS estimates that the P/E ratio of the Vietnamese market in 2025 will fluctuate between 13.4x and 16.4x.

As of August 26, 2025, VN-Index recorded a historical peak of 1,688 points and is currently fluctuating around this peak.

In the last 4 months of the year, the index is forecast to continue to move according to the base scenario at 1,672 points, and may move towards the positive scenario at 1,854 points, supported by: (i) expectations of market upgrade, (ii) drastic management policies to promote growth, and (iii) further steps from flexible diplomatic activities.

However, VCBS also noted that on the upward journey, the market is unlikely to avoid strong fluctuations, even with the potential for reversal risks. Notable risk factors include: (i) rising inflationary pressures, and (ii) the possibility of changes or reversals in monetary policy.

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BINH KHANH

Source: https://tuoitre.vn/loat-thong-tin-sap-bung-ra-ma-ca-nha-dau-tu-chung-khoan-va-vang-do-don-su-chu-y-20250904084132124.htm