Nigel Farage has never held a position in the British government. As leader of the anti-immigration Reform UK party, he only oversees a mere eight MPs from that party in Parliament. In the eyes of voters, he is one of the politicians with the lowest approval ratings.
However, Farage's newly formed party won more than 1,400 of the 5,000 seats in the local elections last May.
Meanwhile, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer's ruling Labour Party won just over 1,000 seats, losing more than 1,200 seats it had previously held. The Conservative Party, which had alternately dominated British politics alongside the Labour Party, also gained just over 800 seats, losing more than 400 seats compared to before the election.
In this election, voters chose the politicians they wanted to represent them in their local area. The election results sent an alarming message to the ruling Labour Party about the level of satisfaction British voters have with how they are running the country, according to Chandelis Duster, an NPR analyst.
A decade after Farage helped push through Brexit, the 62-year-old former businessman is in a position to once again disrupt the British political order. "If Mr. Starmer goes, that will be the third prime minister I've brought down," Farage told an aide after reviewing the May election results.
Prime Minister Starmer finally resigned on June 22nd. The most likely successor to the prime ministership is now former Manchester mayor Andy Burnham. In the past seven years, Britain has had six prime ministers: David Cameron, Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, Rishi Sunak, and Starmer.
Britain used to be a nation that prided itself on political stability. From 1945 to 2016, the UK had only 13 prime ministers, with power constantly shifting between the Labour and Conservative parties. But now, the average rate of prime ministerial changes in Britain is every 14 months.
Currently, the UK has five or six major political parties, not including the nationalist parties in power in Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. Reform UK led the polls last year by nearly 30%, marking the first time since World War I that a party other than the Conservatives and Labour has held the lead for such an extended period.
Mr. Starmer was elected two years ago with a promise to end the constant turmoil in British politics. However, his tenure has seen his approval ratings plummet and core Labour voters switch to other parties, including Reform UK on the right and the Greens on the left.
"Never before have we seen far-right and left-wing parties so strong and centrist parties so weak. This situation is not going to disappear anytime soon," commented Vernon Bogdanor, a professor of political science who has been writing about British politics since the 1970s.
Max Colchester, a WSJ analyst, said that British politics has become volatile and fragmented as a result of a number of issues.
The 2008 financial crisis ended a long period of explosive growth, and subsequent austerity policies only exacerbated the recession. Brexit brought further years of uncertainty and weak investment. Then came the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia's war in Ukraine, which caused inflation to skyrocket. In addition, a series of political scandals erupted, including the boisterous Downing Street parties during the pandemic lockdown.
As a result, food prices have risen, while wages have remained virtually unchanged. With an aging population driving up costs from healthcare to welfare, the tax burden on Britons is at its highest level since World War II, according to David Luhnow, a WSJ analyst.
Immigration numbers surged during the Conservative Party's rule, even after many Britons voted for Brexit, partly to curb the influx of asylum seekers into the country. This is considered one of the reasons that helped Starmer win overwhelmingly against his Conservative opponent Rishi Sunak in 2024, bringing the Labour Party back to power after more than a decade.
One of the Labour Party's first moves upon coming to power was to raise taxes, despite pre-election promises not to do so. This further damaged the British economy.
Public services have yet to show any significant improvement, with 7 million people still on waiting lists for routine medical care.
"People are fed up," said Ros Connors, head of a local community radio station in Basildon, eastern England, as he listened to listeners' complaints about everything from the cost of living to immigration.
The fragmentation of British politics stems from new rifts over globalization, immigration, and social issues, gradually replacing the traditional divide between Labour-leaning working-class and Conservative-leaning middle and wealthy classes. These upheavals have also paved the way for the rise of populist movements, including Farage's Reform UK.
James Orr, the policy planning leader at Reform UK, argues that the left-right political divide is outdated. He believes British society is now divided between those who benefit from globalization and those who feel left behind by changes in trade, technology, and immigration.
To attract this group of voters, Reform UK pursued policies that blended left- and right-wing elements, such as tightening immigration, cutting taxes for the wealthy while still protecting pensions and the public healthcare system.
According to Orr, many British voters today are more concerned with domestic issues such as immigration, taxes, and quality of life than with international crises like Ukraine or Iran.
A survey by the National Centre for Social Research shows a sharp decline in support for immigration, waning trust in the government, while many Britons are hoping for tax cuts and spending reductions.
In response to this shift, both Reform UK and the Labour Party adjusted their messaging to appeal to communities that felt left behind, focusing more on local issues and the daily lives of citizens.
Burnham argued that his Labour Party had "lost its ability to understand the ambitions of the working class" and needed to stand up for those who "have felt left behind for the past 25 years".
Blackpool, located on the northwest coast of England, is a place where political stances are shifting. The popular resort town, once a staunch Brexit supporter and a Conservative under Boris Johnson, switched to the Labour Party in the last election, but few expect the region to repeat that in the next one.
Peter Flynn, a 54-year-old local electrician and former Conservative voter, likened the rise of Reform UK to the 1381 peasant revolt, when a disgruntled group stormed the Tower of London.
"That's exactly what's happening right now. Ordinary people are really standing up and taking action," he said.
Flynn and a business partner acquired Talbot, the Conservative Party's social club, and undertook renovations last year. The two-story building has now been repainted in Reform UK's signature turquoise. They also display flyers featuring Mr. Farage with the message "Reform needs you."
He argued that it was time for Britons to stop voting blindly for either of the two main parties.
In the May local elections, Reform UK gained control of Essex County Council from the Conservative Party for the first time in 25 years. The party is reviewing the council's planned spending on climate policies. They have also pledged to cut wasteful local government spending to ensure no tax increases are made on citizens.
Outside the Basildon council office in Essex, 70-year-old stall owner Tony Hall shared that he would give Reform UK a chance.
"Things have changed so quickly," he said.
According to WSJ, NPR, and Guardian
Source: https://baohatinh.vn/ly-do-nen-chinh-polit-anh-roi-vao-khung-hoang-post312766.html
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