Mirae Asset Securities Vietnam has just released the report "Stock Selection Portfolio Based on Business Results in the First Quarter of 2025". Thereby, the analysis team gives suggestions on a new "basket" of goods in the context of stagnant profits of listed enterprises and signs of instability in the stock market at the beginning of the second quarter.
Selection criteria include stable business results, good growth, owning a unique story, based on a combination of the SEPA method of selecting stocks with good fundamentals by Mark Minervini and the Canslim investment method by William O'neil.
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| Mirae Asset assesses that businesses have passed the peak recovery phase after low profits (Illustration photo) |
According to Mirae Asset's Q1/2025 profit data (updated to May 5, 2025), the average profit after tax (PT) of listed enterprises still increased compared to the same period, but the breakthrough momentum has weakened and the level of differentiation between industries is deepening.
Specifically, the number of green sectors has narrowed compared to the fourth quarter of 2024, while the growth rate of total after-tax profit of the whole market has reached the lowest level in six quarters. Citing FiinTrade (updated on May 9, 2025), Mirae Asset recorded after-tax profit in the first quarter of 2025 growing by 11.8% over the same period, far behind the 20.7% growth rate in the first quarter of 2024.
The leading growth industries include: Communications (14,361.4%), retail (74.5%), real estate (59.3%), utilities (48.9%), chemicals (37.5%), information technology (21.1%), insurance (18.1%), banking (15.3%)... On the other hand, there are also many declining industries, notably: Telecommunications (down 47.9%), oil and gas (down 56.5%), tourism and entertainment (down 17.5%), financial services (down 4.7%)...
Mirae Asset assessed that businesses have passed the peak recovery phase after a period of low profits; the market is gradually stabilizing, forcing investors to screen more carefully as profits are diverging and many pillar industries have passed their short-term peak.
Regarding stock market developments, at the end of the first three months of 2025, the VN-Index only managed to increase by about 3%, far below the nearly 14% level of the first quarter of 2024. In early April, the index lost nearly 20% in a strong correction, set in the context of global economic fluctuations and tariffs.
Liquidity also dropped quite sharply, with the average matched order value in the first quarter reaching VND 16,039 billion/session, down 25% over the same period and 15% lower than the average level in 2024. By March 31, 2025, HOSE's capitalization reached about VND 5.45 million billion, equivalent to 47.4% of 2024 GDP and accounting for 93.6% of the capitalization value of listed stocks in the whole market.
'Panning for gold'
On that basis, Mirae Asset's filter recommends that investors prioritize a "lineup" that can hold the ball firmly (gross profit margin continuously improves), a sharp attack (growth story) and abundant physical strength (good liquidity). In the context that VN-Index is still prone to "falling" when macro news changes color, Super and Good codes, if disbursed at the right time, can completely become a "stopper" to maintain the profit rhythm for the portfolio, waiting for the moment when the market has a wide path to break out.
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| Source: Mirae Asset Securities Vietnam |
Commenting on the electricity industry, Mirae Asset believes that the Power Plan VIII (adjusted) and the Electricity Law (amended) are paving the way for a more competitive power generation market, with electricity consumption demand forecast to grow sustainably in 2025. As a result, REE, NT2, and POW will be three variables worth watching.
With real estate and construction, the "story" of revival after legal solutions is quite attractive. The implementation of the Law on Real Estate Business, the revised Law on Construction and the preferential interest rate credit package for social housing opens up a new "runway", allowing stocks such as: DIG, VHM, DPG, HHV to completely "take off".
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| Source: Mirae Asset Securities Vietnam |
Meanwhile, chemicals, fertilizers and rubber will be the groups of industries that benefit from tax policies and commodity prices. From July 1, 2025, fertilizers will be subject to a 5% output VAT, helping the industry recover input tax; rubber prices remain high when global supply is in short supply. Therefore, DGC, BFC, DRI, DPR are stocks that investors need to closely monitor the movement of input prices.
| In general, the strategy of "defending" with essentials and "attacking" with "stories" will help investors' portfolios balance between safety and breakthrough potential in an economic environment with many variables. |
Source: https://congthuong.vn/mirae-asset-dai-cat-tim-vang-sau-mua-bao-cao-quy-i2025-387212.html
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