Banks are aggressively lending for real estate.

The proportion of real estate loans at many banks increased sharply in the first half of this year. In particular, the credit growth rate of many banks reached 20-30%, three times higher than the overall credit growth rate of the entire system.

Capital is pouring into real estate.

Financial reports for the second quarter of 2025 show that in the first half of this year, real estate was a major contributor to credit growth for many banks.

For example, at Techcombank , in the first six months of this year, real estate business loans (including both credit and bonds) accounted for 59% of total outstanding loans. Including individual customers, the proportion of real estate loans at Techcombank reached over 64% of the bank's total outstanding loans. Techcombank's consolidated growth in real estate business loans (credit alone) reached 21.5% compared to the end of 2024 (almost double the bank's 11.6% loan growth).

At many other commercial banks, real estate business loans also recorded very strong growth in the first half of the year. Specifically, at HDBank, outstanding real estate business loans reached VND 83,125 billion, an increase of 22% compared to the beginning of the year and accounting for 16.4% of total loans. AtSHB , outstanding real estate loans reached VND 163,754 billion, an increase of nearly 28.4% compared to the beginning of the year, accounting for 27.5%, instead of 24.5% at the end of 2024. At MB, real estate business loans reached VND 85,834 billion, an increase of nearly 34% compared to the beginning of the year and accounting for 9.72% of total loans (up from 8.26% at the end of last year).

Outstanding real estate business loans at the end of June 2025 increased by 32% at TPBank , 30% at PGBank, 19% at VietBank, and 15% at MSB...

As of June 30, 2025, outstanding real estate loans are estimated to reach VND 3.18 million billion, 2.4 times higher than at the end of 2024 and accounting for 18.5% of the total outstanding loans in the entire system.

It's not difficult to understand why banks are aggressively lending to the real estate sector. Analysts at SSI Research believe that, given the uncertainty surrounding global market tax policies, the main drivers of credit growth are real estate and infrastructure. These are also two sectors receiving increasing policy attention, aligning with the government's efforts to stimulate domestic demand and maintain economic growth.

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However, Mr. Tran Ngoc Bau, General Director of WiGroup (a company specializing in providing economic and financial data), warned that the sharp increase in real estate credit in the context of weak production and consumption poses the risk of an "imbalanced" credit flow.

Plenty of capital, cheap capital, but it must be injected in the right direction.

Explaining the focus on real estate lending, Mr. Nguyen Anh Tuan, Director of Retail Banking at Techcombank, said that the demand for home ownership among the people is very high. This is a long-term and ever-present need. Techcombank's leadership also affirmed that non-performing loans (NPLs) in Techcombank's home loan segment are being tightly controlled, maintaining around 2%. This ratio is tightly controlled thanks to a strategy of selecting collateral from the outset, as well as the capacity to effectively handle collateral. Loans with collateral therefore have a very low actual loss rate.

Although banks assert that the risks are low, experts still warn of potential risks. Currently, the social housing loan package (145,000 billion VND) is being disbursed very slowly due to a lack of supply. Real estate lending has increased sharply mainly because banks are aggressively lending to high-end real estate projects. If this situation continues, instability will occur in both the real estate market and the banking sector.

This year, the government aims for GDP growth of 8.3-8.5%. To achieve this goal, economic experts believe that credit growth for the whole year could reach 18%, instead of the 16% target set by the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) at the beginning of the year.

Recently (July 31st), the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) announced an upward adjustment to the credit growth targets for credit institutions. Along with this, the SBV requested credit institutions to direct capital flows into production and business sectors, priority sectors, and growth drivers; and to strictly control credit to sectors with potential risks, ensuring safety and efficiency.

According to economic experts, a credit growth rate of 18-20% this year is consistent with GDP growth and inflation levels, and is not yet at an "overheated" point. However, this credit growth rate is only safe if capital flows are directed towards priority sectors. Conversely, if credit flows into speculative areas such as stocks and real estate, asset bubbles could form, putting pressure on interest rates and inflation, creating risks of bad debt and macroeconomic instability.

“If capital flows are directed towards priority sectors, credit growth this year only needs to increase by 17-18% to meet the GDP growth target of 8.3-8.5%. However, if it flows into speculative sectors such as stocks and real estate, credit must increase by over 20% to achieve the GDP growth target of 8.3-8.5%,” Associate Professor Dr. Nguyen Huu Huan (University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City) commented.

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Amidst a surge in credit, in recent months, some commercial banks have begun to slightly increase deposit interest rates across various maturities, applicable to large deposits.

In response to this situation, on August 4th, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) held a meeting with commercial banks, requesting them to stabilize deposit interest rates; continue to reduce operating costs, strengthen digital transformation, and be ready to share a portion of profits to reduce lending interest rates. Mr. Pham Chi Quang, Director of the Monetary Policy Department (SBV), stated that the average deposit interest rate is only 4.18% per year, basically stable compared to 2024. The average lending interest rate has decreased to 6.53% per year, a reduction of 0.4 percentage points compared to the end of 2024.

The State Bank of Vietnam requires credit institutions, in addition to maintaining stable interest rates, to strive to reduce interest rates while simultaneously directing credit towards production and business sectors, priority sectors, and growth drivers; and to strictly control credit to sectors with potential risks, ensuring safety and efficiency.

Source: https://baodautu.vn/ngan-hang-ram-ro-cho-vay-bat-dong-san-d350030.html