OECD lowers global growth forecast.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) warned on June 3rd that conflict in the Middle East is undermining global economic growth prospects and could have even more serious consequences if the parties do not reach an effective ceasefire before 2027.

In its latest Economic Outlook report, the OECD forecasts global economic growth to slow from 3.4% in 2025 to 2.8% in 2026, before recovering to around 3.1% in 2027 under the baseline scenario.

The organization stated that the forecast was based on two main scenarios: a short-term disruption scenario, in which the impacts of conflict are controlled and energy prices gradually stabilize from mid-2026; and a prolonged disruption scenario, with more serious and long-lasting economic consequences.

If the conflict extends into 2027, global economic growth could fall even further, to just 2.1%, significantly lower than the average of 3.4% during the 2013–2019 period before the COVID-19 pandemic.

The OECD warns that the longer the instability lasts, the greater the economic and social costs. Global investment risks declining, including in energy-intensive sectors such as artificial intelligence (AI), which could further increase unemployment.

The organization also noted that persistently high prices for energy, fertilizers, and oil-related products will put significant pressure on developing economies, where spending on energy and food accounts for a large proportion of household consumption.

Even in a scenario where conflict is only short-term disruptive, the OECD still forecasts global inflation to rise to 4% this year, compared with 3.4% in 2025.

For major economies, US growth is projected to slow to 2% this year and 1.8% in 2027. In the Eurozone, GDP is expected to grow by only 0.8% this year, down from 1.4% last year, amid the region's heavy reliance on energy imports.

The OECD emphasized that the global economic outlook is currently being heavily influenced by the unpredictable developments in the Middle East conflict, and warned that negative impacts could persist even after the conflict ends.

Source: https://vtv.vn/oecd-ha-du-bao-tang-truong-toan-cau-100260603224827452.htm