Sketching the picture of bank profits

Not many banks have announced their business results for the second quarter of 2025, but profits for this quarter as well as the whole year are forecast to be positive as credit increases, bad debts are handled, and provisions decrease.

The profit picture of banks in the second quarter of 2025 is forecast to be more positive than in the first quarter of 2025. Photo: Duc Thanh

Credit Impact on Profits

The first Big4 bank has revealed its business results, with credit increasing by 10% in the first half of the year. Specifically, at the 6-month review conference of 2025, Mr. Nguyen Tran Manh Trung, General Director of VietinBank, revealed that the Bank's outstanding credit is estimated to increase by 10% compared to the end of 2024; mobilized capital is estimated to increase by more than 9% and pre-risk provision profit continues to grow compared to the same period.

Although not announcing detailed profit figures for the first half of 2025, Mr. Trung said that profit before risk provisions continued to grow compared to the same period in 2024. According to the consolidated financial report for the first half of 2024, this target of VietinBank reached VND 28,826 billion.

Vietcombank Securities Joint Stock Company (VCBS) forecasts that in 2025, credit will increase sharply thanks to the recovery of the real estate market and credit to individual customers. Sacombank and HDBank are the two banks expected to have the highest growth rate in the list announced by VCBS, with an increase of 25%.

Next are banks such as MB (estimated increase of 23%), MSB and VietinBank (estimated increase of 16%)... HDBank is forecasted to have higher credit growth prospects than the industry average from the agricultural and rural lending segment, the recovery of the real estate market and the transfer of DongABank.

According to VCBS, some banks such as Sacombank, HDBank, MB will see second-quarter profits grow by over 20% compared to the same period last year. These banks' profits are expected to maintain positive growth with growth rates of 25% and 24% in the second quarter of 2025 and 2025, respectively. Meanwhile, the pressure to narrow NIM (net interest margin) in 2025 will decrease compared to the industry average.

VCBS expects Techcombank's credit to continue to grow well, driven by the recovery of the real estate and construction markets. The bank's total operating income in the second quarter of 2025 is forecast to reach VND15,030 billion, up 12%; pre-tax profit is estimated at VND8,452 billion, up 8%.

In 2025, with the diversification of non-interest income sources helping to bring positive profit growth potential, VCBS's report forecasts that Techcombank's total operating income (TOI) and pre-tax profit will increase by 18% and 20%, respectively. NIM is expected to reduce the pressure of narrowing thanks to CASA (demand deposits) continuing to remain at a high level, creating an advantage in capital costs for the Bank.

For TPBank, credit growth in 2025 is assessed by VCBS thanks to the recovery of the real estate market and retail consumption. VCBS experts forecast that the bank's profit will grow by 8% in the second quarter and by 7% in 2025.

Improved asset quality

MB Securities Joint Stock Company (MBS) commented that the profit picture of banks in the second quarter of 2025 is more positive than in the first quarter of 2025 thanks to continued positive credit growth and no further decline in NIM. Banks with credit growth in the first quarter of the year such as MSB, Eximbank, VPBank, SHB, VietinBank continued to grow well in the second quarter.

In the second quarter of 2025, VPBank, VietinBank, and Eximbank are forecast to have better credit growth than the entire industry and NIM will decrease less than the low base of last year. However, according to Ms. Tran Khanh Hien, Director of Research at MBS, asset quality will still be the top concern and is expected to gradually improve.

From a cautious perspective, Vietcap experts forecast that credit costs in 2025 will remain high, equivalent to the same period last year, based on expectations of low credit costs in the fourth quarter of 2024 due to some banks reversing one-time provision costs. In addition, Vietcap's report forecasts that banks will continue to increase their provision buffers in 2025.

Some banks are expected to have improved asset quality with low provisioning pressure such as BIDV, MB, MSB, VietinBank... VCBS experts assessed that credit demand at MSB is at a good level, expected to reach a growth rate of 21.2% for the whole year of 2025. In addition, NIM began to improve from the second half of the year. Asset quality improved, the bad debt ratio continued to decrease to 2% thanks to strong credit growth and increased recovery of written-off debt.

MSB's profit is estimated to reach VND2,512 billion (up 16%) in the second quarter of 2025 and VND8,029 billion for the whole year (up 16%). In addition, the Bank is completing its ecosystem with plans to divest and contribute capital to subsidiaries (transfer part or all of the contributed capital at TNEX Finance and contribute capital to buy securities companies and fund management companies).

VietinBank's pre-tax profit in the second quarter of 2025 and the whole year is forecast to reach VND7,859 billion and VND36,982 billion, respectively, an increase of 16%. Total operating income in the second quarter is estimated at VND22,194 billion, equivalent to 13%; the whole year of 2025 is at VND94,885 billion, equivalent to 16%. VCBS experts assess that VietinBank's credit growth will reach 16.9%, equivalent to the industry average, while NIM will begin to recover in the second half of 2025 with momentum coming from both mobilization and lending.

Notably, VietinBank's asset quality is well controlled, some restructured customers who have completed the probation period have been transferred to lower debt groups and will have their provisions reversed in the second quarter. In 2025, asset quality is one of VietinBank's top concerns, along with controlling bad debt below 1.8% and focusing on optimizing cost efficiency, strengthening asset quality control to ensure safe and effective growth.

In its analysis report on the banking sector, Vietcap Securities Joint Stock Company stated that credit growth in 2025 will still be driven more by the corporate lending segment. At the same time, banks with competitive advantages in corporate lending and capital mobilization are well positioned to seize growth opportunities.

The 2025 profits of some banks are forecasted as follows: Sacombank will increase by 48%, Vietcombank and ACB will both increase by 24%, TPBank will increase by 23%, Techcombank will increase by 21%. Banks such as VIB, VietinBank, MB, HDBank, BIDV, VPBank will all increase by more than 10%. LPBank is the only bank with a forecast of decreased profit growth in 2025.

Source: https://baodautu.vn/phac-thao-buc-tranh-loi-nhuan-ngan-hang-d314687.html