'Development for stability'

In that sense, 2026 is not just an annual planning milestone, but a "transitional" moment in development thinking: continue following old habits or boldly choose a new path — development for long-term stability.

The demographic dividend — a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.

Vietnam is in a rare demographic phase that will last for just over a decade. More than 65% of the population is of working age; over 24 million people are of school age — a very large workforce.

A rapidly emerging middle class comprises approximately 13% of the population and grows by around 1.5 million people annually. This is not only a driving force for consumption, but also the social foundation of a modern economy , demanding more transparent, equitable, and efficient institutions.

But a young, dynamic population doesn't automatically translate into growth. It only becomes a driving force when education , policies, and the business environment are reformed to encourage innovation, increase productivity, and expand opportunities for young people to create value right here in this land—instead of remaining at the bottom of the global value chain.

Vietnam is in a rare phase of its demographic history that will last for just over a decade more.

Over the years, Vietnam has come a long way: GDP per capita has risen from under $700 in 1986 to nearly $5,000; the poverty rate has decreased to below 1%; average growth over several decades has been around 6.4% per year; and the Human Development Index (HDI) has reached 0.766 — placing it in the high-development group.

According to PISA surveys, education consistently ranks among the leading countries in the region, with expanded access to learning; in healthcare , life expectancy has increased to over 74 years, and infant mortality rates have dropped sharply; 93% of the population is covered by health insurance; electricity coverage is almost nationwide, and rural access to clean water has improved significantly compared to three decades ago.

Behind those figures lies not only economic achievement, but also an improvement in quality of life, new opportunities opened up for tens of millions of people — and the foundation for setting the next step.

From “stability for development” to “development for stability”

Nevertheless, alongside these achievements are difficult questions about the quality and depth of growth. Labor productivity has increased slowly over the past decade; many private enterprises, despite having been established and accumulated for over thirty years, still struggle to reach regional prominence; and not a few "technology giants" have chosen other destinations within ASEAN for large-scale and high-tech projects.

These phenomena not only reflect increasingly fierce competitive pressure, but also point to institutional limitations — from the legal environment and procedures to the capacity for policy implementation — which are becoming tangible barriers to the aspiration for faster and more sustainable economic development.

World Bank studies clearly indicate that to achieve the 2045 target, Vietnam must simultaneously increase productivity by approximately 1.8% per year and maintain an investment rate of around 36% of GDP. If relying solely on investment, this rate would need to increase to 49% of GDP—an unrealistic figure; and if relying solely on productivity, it would require a breakthrough far exceeding the current level. These warnings suggest that the old growth model—heavily reliant on expanding capital and labor—is no longer sufficient.

For many years, Vietnam has chosen the motto "stability for development" — and that has proven to be the right choice in a context of significant change, helping to maintain macroeconomic balance and strengthen social confidence.

But as traditional drivers gradually diminish, it's time to shift to a different way of thinking: "development for stability." Because stability cannot be sustainable if productivity doesn't increase, if the impetus for innovation is suppressed, and if institutions don't move towards transparency, efficiency, and placing national and people's interests at the center.

Breakthrough thinking for "spectacular growth"

In many recent discussions on high growth targets, Dr. Tran Dinh Thien emphasized that Vietnam can only achieve “spectacular development” when it dares to remove cognitive and institutional barriers — when resources are allocated according to market principles, when the State is not simultaneously a “player” and an “arbitrator,” and when the private sector is truly given the leading role as the driving force of the economy.

"Institutional breakthrough" is therefore not just a slogan. It has very specific coordinates: a transparent land market; an administrative procedure system that drastically reduces compliance costs; a fair competition mechanism—where private businesses can grow based on their own genuine capabilities and innovative aspirations.

In that sense, setting high growth targets is not just about economic figures, but a natural pressure forcing the entire system to innovate in thinking and acting — improving governance quality, enhancing implementation, and unleashing the inherent strengths of society.

2026 — Choose a new path

Therefore, 2026 should be seen as a pivotal year: a year to enhance productivity and the quality of growth, rather than simply expanding investment; to reform administration to reduce costs and time for businesses; to promote innovation, the digital economy, and high value-added industries; to develop green infrastructure and energy as a foundation for long-term growth; to empower dynamic regions; and, most importantly, to unleash private sector resources on a foundation of fairness and transparency.

This is not an easy road. But the past eighty years have shown that Vietnam only moves forward when it dares to change — from achieving independence and national reunification to the Doi Moi (Renovation) period and escaping poverty. Today, the "Party's will" and the "people's aspirations" meet in a different aspiration: the aspiration for strong, equitable, and modern development — for the opportunities of every citizen, for the future of the younger generation, and for the country's position in a highly competitive world.

The question at this stage is no longer "can we do it?", but "how will we act to make it happen?".

And if we consider 2026 as the starting point of a new path—where development becomes the foundation of stability, where institutions are reformed to unleash resources, where the young population is transformed into productivity, knowledge, and opportunity—then it will be the year that Vietnam not only raises its development goals higher, but also begins to take longer strides on the road towards becoming a developed nation by 2045.

Source: https://vietnamnet.vn/phat-trien-de-on-dinh-2478018.html