Recovery with caution

According to a survey conducted by the consulting firm Sentix on 1,267 investors, investor confidence in the Eurozone rose by 2.4 points, reaching its highest level since April 2023.

Similarly, the outlook index rose to -2.3 points from -5.5 points in February. This marks the sixth consecutive increase and the highest level since February 2022. The Eurozone current situation index also rose to -18.5 points from -20 points last month. The Eurozone economy has shown signs of recovery since the beginning of this year. The Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB) Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global, rose to 47.9 in January – the highest level since July 2023.

Previously, the recovery picture was overshadowed by the stagnation of the German economy. Contrary to the general trend, Germany's outlook index fell to -27.9 points due to "persistent economic recession." The current situation index even dropped to -40.5 points – the lowest level since July 2020. After a period of stagnation in the spring and summer of last year, the German economy contracted by 0.3% at the end of 2023 due to reduced investment. The German Federal Government forecasts the country's economy will grow by only 0.2% in 2024. Federal Economy Minister Robert Habeck recently acknowledged that the German economy is emerging from the crisis more slowly than expected.

According to chief economist Cyrus de la Rubia at HCOB, with both input and output prices in the services sector rising, the ECB is not yet ready to ease monetary policy. At the end of January, the ECB kept interest rates unchanged at a record high of 4% and reaffirmed its commitment to fighting inflation. This was the third consecutive time the ECB kept interest rates unchanged after a long period of raising rates to curb price increases. Experts believe the Eurozone should remain cautious. Sentix CEO Manfred Hübner noted that the recovery is not typical of a spring recovery because the growth momentum is relatively weak, based on very weak indicators at the end of 2022.

VIET LE

Source: https://www.sggp.org.vn/phuc-hoi-trong-than-trong-post729441.html