Russian Su-30SM continuously "collapsed" before Ukraine's attacks

Since the outbreak of full-scale conflict, the Black Sea Fleet has lost more than half of its Su-30SMs, reflecting the increasing offensive pressure from Ukraine in Crimea.

Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, the 43rd Regiment of the Black Sea Fleet has suffered heavy losses. On August 14, 2025, the unit's seventh Su-30SM was shot down, causing the force to lose more than half of its multi-role fighters. This loss directly affects the ability to control the skies and support the Russian Navy in the Black Sea.

The 43rd Regiment is deployed at the Saki Air Base, Novofedorivka - Crimea. This is the main unit carrying out air strikes, patrolling the Black Sea, supporting naval forces and carrying out long-range strikes deep into Ukrainian territory.

According to military analyst Denys Tomenchuk, at the start of the conflict, the 43rd Regiment had 12 Su-30SMs - equivalent to a full squadron - and a squadron of Su-24MRs, specialized in reconnaissance and tactical bombing. The Su-30SMs, with their wide range of weapons, played a key role in both strike and interception missions.

The first serious loss came on March 5, 2022, when a Su-30SM was shot down near Mykolaiv while on a strike mission. Both pilots, Major Oleksiy Golovensky (squadron commander) and Captain Aleksey Kozlov (navigator), ejected and were captured by Ukrainian forces. This was the first shock to the unit just a few weeks after the operation began.

Then, on August 9, 2022, Ukrainian forces carried out a precision strike on the Saki base, destroying three Su-30SMs and damaging another. At the same time, five Su-24s were also destroyed and three were damaged. This is considered one of the most damaging operations for the Russian Air Force in Crimea since 2014.

More than two years later, in the early morning of September 11, 2024, a Su-30SM was shot down by special forces of the Ukrainian Defense Intelligence Agency (GUR) using a man-portable air defense system (MANPADS). The incident demonstrated Ukraine's ability to deploy mobile air defense systems, surprising the Russian Air Force even in areas controlled by Moscow.

Just a few months later, on May 2, 2025, the GUR, in cooperation with the Security Service of Ukraine (SSU) and the Defense Forces, shot down a Su-30SM over the Black Sea for the first time in history using an AIM-9 Sidewinder missile launched from a sea-based unmanned vehicle. This is a testament to Ukraine's creativity and flexibility in asymmetric warfare.

The latest climax was on August 14, 2025, when another Su-30SM of the 43rd Regiment was destroyed along with its entire crew. The Russian military confirmed the incident, bringing the total number of Su-30SMs completely lost from the unit to 7 since 2022.

In addition to the seven irreparable losses, the 43rd Regiment also suffered two seriously damaged Su-30SMs, one in the Saki 2022 raid and the other in the UJ-26 Bober long-range UAV attack on July 1, 2025. These losses continue to degrade the unit's combat capabilities.

The loss of many Su-30SMs forced Russia to disperse its remaining forces to safer bases deeper in its territory, reducing the frequency of patrols and limiting its ability to impose air superiority in the northwestern Black Sea region. At the same time, its missions of providing fire support for the fleet and intercepting cruise missiles of Ukraine were also affected.

While Russia still has the capacity to produce new Su-30SMs, the pace of replenishment of the 43rd Regiment is constrained by pressure from other fronts and the need to replace losses across the battlefield. In addition, the delivery and deployment of new aircraft to Crimea is highly risky given Ukraine’s long-range strike capabilities.

The loss of more than half of the Su-30SM squadron has significantly weakened the Black Sea Fleet’s naval aviation capabilities. As Ukraine continues to expand its long-range strike capabilities, Russian Air Force bases in Crimea will continue to be a key target. This forces Moscow to reconsider its defense strategy and force allocation in the Black Sea region.

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