Risk considerations come first

The stock market experienced a positive trading week when the index recovered and continued to maintain its upward momentum after a sharp decline in the first two sessions of the week, helping VN-Index reach 2 points.

At the end of the week, VN-Index increased 18,02 points, equivalent to 1,43% compared to last week to 1.281,8 points. HNX increased 0,89% to 241,68 points.

Banking stocks returned to lead the market with many codes increasing strongly, surpassing the peak, and liquidity increased prominently with TCB up 8,45%, VIB up 7,56%, MBB up 5,25%, BID up 3,83 ,4,5%... The three codes BID, VCB and CTG had the most positive impact on the VN-Index with a contribution of nearly XNUMX points to the index. 

Liquidity improved with trading value on HoSE reaching 27.484,54 billion VND/session, up 15,7% compared to last week.

The minus point is that foreign investors continue to net sell, mainly on HoSE with a value of 3.102 billion VND, while last week they net sold 2.609 billion VND, HNX net sold 90 billion VND.

Regarding developments in the next trading week, Mr. Nguyen Anh Khoa - Head of Analysis and Research Department of Agriseco Securities Company and Mr. Bui Van Huy - Director of Ho Chi Minh City Branch of DSC Securities Company both said that VN-Index is in a significant resistance area. Note, it is likely that shaking will continue. However, there is currently no short-term trigger for the market to fall deeply.

Messenger (Investor): What do you think about last week's trading developments?

Mr. Nguyen Anh Khoa: The rising momentum of Vietnamese stocks is similar to the world stock market, especially in the US. It is worth noting that although money flow continues to circulate among industry groups, trading results are uneven and only the banking group is the main driving force for the index's recovery.

Cash flow entered strongly last week when the total transaction value on the 3 exchanges was about 16% higher than the average of the last 5 weeks. Cumulatively since the beginning of the year, the total transaction value on all three exchanges has doubled compared to the same period in 3.

Mr. Bui Van Huy: The recovery momentum of Vietnam's stock market is completely in sync with developments in the world stock market. After the Fed's March meeting, there were no significant "hawkish" signals, and world stock markets all recovered strongly. The US stock market led the way by setting a new peak.

The domestic context after the Fed meeting will not have too many ominous risks next week when general information about the Fed has gone smoothly with the global stock market.

Investors: In your opinion, what information should investors pay attention to next week?

Mr. Nguyen Anh Khoa: In the short term, the fact that cash flow circulates but mostly only the banking group increases prices shows the risk of the possibility of a common distribution rhythm. With the VN-Index being in a notable resistance zone, it is likely that large amplitude fluctuations will continue to occur and it will take more time to observe the ability to absorb supply at this point.

After each hot increase, the market will often need time to accumulate/distribute to shake off investors with weak positions and open up opportunities for investors to participate and new cash flows into the market. school.

This is relatively reasonable at the present time when the market will need a break before receiving important information before the upcoming general meeting of shareholders of large enterprises on the floor.

Mr. Bui Van Huy: The area around 1.300 points is a very strong resistance area and is not necessarily easy to overcome. However, the chance to surpass the 1.300 point threshold has increased compared to last week thanks to a less pressured context and the synchronization of global stocks.

Investors should note that market volume and breadth still show signs of divergence with price. VN-Index rose but the number of codes losing their short-term uptrend increased, currently only about 60% of codes on HoSE maintain short-term uptrend, compared to about 80% of the most recent peak, this is signs of weakness.

However, it is also important to see that if shaking occurs, there is no short-term trigger for the market to fall deeply.

Investors: According to him, investors should act wiselyo in this moment?

Mr. Nguyen Anh Khoa: In the short term, the risk level for new disbursement positions will be high. Investors prioritize holding existing positions and only disbursement during fluctuations in the support zone to find better positions.

In the context that the first quarter of 2023 is the quarter with the sharpest decline in profits in 2023 when the business activities of most industry groups are going backwards, I expect that the first quarter of 2024 will have many industry groups with positive growth. poles include: steel, rubber, securities, retail and livestock industry.

Mr. Bui Van Huy: In general, with the current liquidity and nothing too alarming, short-term opportunities will always appear whether the market breaks out or not.

However, in high price areas, with each transaction, the profit/risk consideration needs to be given top priority. For example, if you get 5% right and if you get 10% wrong, those chances are not a good chance. On the contrary, for example, stocks that have 15 - 20% remaining while losing 5 - 7% should be prioritized..