Take advantage of the opportunity to accumulate good stocks.

Last week, the stock market experienced declines in 4 out of 5 trading sessions, dragging the VN-Index down close to the 1,250-point mark. Liquidity also plummeted, and the lack of leading stocks contributed to the overall sluggishness of the market.

Stocks putting downward pressure on the index included SSB, down 15.3%; VIC, down 3.9%; and BID, down 2.2%. Conversely,FPT , up 0.7%; TPB, up 2.5%; and SBT, up 8.4%, were the main factors supporting the market.

At the end of the week, the VN-Index fell 22.25 points compared to the previous week, equivalent to 1.7%, to 1,251.7 points; the HNX-Index fell 0.9% to 232.4 points; and the UPCoM-Index fell 0.4% to 92.9 points.

Foreign investors sold a net 1,132.9 billion VND across all three exchanges, including a net selling of 1,122.2 billion VND on HoSE, a net selling of 17.2 billion VND on HNX, and a net buying of 6.5 billion VND on UPCoM.

What is the market waiting for?

Assessing the subdued market performance last week, Mr. Dinh Quang Hinh - Head of Macroeconomics and Market Strategy Department, Analysis Division of VNDirect Securities, believes that this reflects caution in the face of important macroeconomic developments.

This includes the upcoming Fed interest rate meeting in the middle of next week, with forecasts suggesting the Fed may cut interest rates for the first time this year; the market is waiting to see the State Bank of Vietnam's reaction after the Fed's interest rate cut; and Typhoon Yagi , the largest storm in decades, has hit northern Vietnam, disrupting the production and business activities of some enterprises.

VN-Index performance last week (Source: TradingView).

Sharing the same view, Ms. Nguyen Thi My Lien - Head of Analysis Department at Phu Hung Securities (PHS) - commented that next week, the market is confident in the scenario that the Fed will cut interest rates for the first time in two years, by 25 basis points.

Several factors could prompt the Fed to take a more aggressive stance, such as a 50-basis-point rate cut. However, factors related to the US presidential election are particularly noteworthy, and the Fed will typically limit further interest rate easing during this sensitive period.

Regarding the Vietnamese economy , according to newly released August data, inflation is currently at 4%. Some positive signs include falling fuel prices. Experts from PHS predict that inflation will stabilize below 4%, around 3.6%, towards the end of the year, which will be a supportive factor for the market.

Stocks are at the beginning of a new wave.

Experts from VNDirect maintain a positive outlook on the prospects of the Vietnamese stock market in the latter part of the year, and believe that the scenario of the VN-Index surpassing 1,300 points this year is entirely feasible.

Supporting factors include the Fed's expected 0.75% reduction in the policy interest rate in the final months of the year; easing exchange rate and inflation pressures, allowing the State Bank of Vietnam to shift its focus to prioritizing economic growth, increasing money supply, and maintaining low interest rates; continued improvement in the business performance of listed companies; and new progress in the market upgrade process.

At the same time, past experience shows that "market peaks always appear during periods of high trading activity and market bottoms form when market liquidity is low."

Mr. Dinh Quang Hinh - Expert at VNDirect Securities

Market peaks always occur during periods of high trading activity, and market bottoms form when market liquidity is low.

Therefore, Mr. Hinh believes that the VN-Index is in a consolidation phase for the year-end uptrend, and investors should take advantage of this period to increase their stock holdings around the 1,250-point support level of the VN-Index.

Investors prioritize sectors with positive growth prospects at the end of the year, such as banking, securities, import/export (textiles, seafood, wood products), and industrial real estate.

Meanwhile, experts from PHS noted that the stock market has seen significant divergence in recent months, between different sectors, and even between stocks within the same sector. For example, in the banking sector, those focused on corporate lending have recovered better than those focused on consumer and retail lending.

Therefore, investors should pay attention to sectors with attractive valuations, such as banking.

According to Ms. Lien, with an optimistic scenario of interest rates falling in the near future, the financial sector, including banks and securities firms, will benefit. Notably, the securities industry also has the potential for an upgrade in its rating, therefore, leading companies in the sector will offer safer investment opportunities.

Source: https://www.nguoiduatin.vn/lang-kinh-chung-khoan-16-9-tan-dung-thoi-co-de-gom-co-phieu-tot-204240915161440492.htm