Thailand is worried.

Tourists visit the Royal Palace, one of the most popular tourist attractions in Bangkok, Thailand, on May 20, 2025. Photo: Reuters .

According to Thailand's acting Minister of Tourism and Sports , Artthakorn Sirilatthayakorn, the closure of Middle Eastern airspace has significantly impacted European markets, a region that had seen a strong recovery for the country last year, the Bangkok Post reported.

In the short term, escalating conflict has affected many passengers due to connecting flights through Middle Eastern aviation hubs. This could also erode traveler confidence in long-haul flights to Thailand.

The sharp increase in operating costs for airlines has led to higher airfares, as fuel accounts for approximately 25% of their operating expenses.

According to preliminary forecasts from the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT), in the worst-case scenario , the number of international visitors to Thailand could decrease by 25%, to around 27-29 million, compared to the target of 36.7 million visitors this year.

If the fighting ends within three months, the agency forecasts a potential 18% decrease in tourist numbers, to 30-31 million, considered the baseline scenario . In the most optimistic scenario , if tensions ease within 2-4 weeks, the impact on tourism would be minimal, only about 2%.

Tourists gather in large numbers in Bangkok's Chinatown, Thailand. Photo: Reuters.

However, Mr. Artthakorn stated that "it is still too early to predict the final outcome." While awaiting developments, TAT is stepping up its efforts to diversify its promotional activities towards less affected markets, especially targeting customers from mid-range and nearby regions.

"We still need to strive to maintain visitor numbers during Easter and Songkran in April, hoping to welcome at least 30 million tourists this year," he said.

By 2025, Thailand is expected to welcome approximately 33 million international tourists, generating revenue of 1.53 trillion baht. Earlier this year, the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) set a target of 36.7 million international tourists with revenue of 2 trillion baht.

According to forecasts, long-haul tourists are expected to account for approximately 30% of the total number of visitors but contribute up to 45% of Thailand's tourism revenue.

Mr. Artthakorn said the Ministry of Tourism and Sports and TAT will meet with representatives from hotels, travel companies, and airlines on March 9 to further assess the impact of the fighting and discuss response measures.