Another culprit behind the swift collapse of the "Assad regime".

The Syrian economy has shrunk by 85% in nearly 14 years of civil war, devastating infrastructure and causing hyperinflation. This dire economic situation has contributed to the rapid collapse of President Bashar al-Assad's regime, which had weathered numerous difficulties for over a decade.

Since the uprisings of 2011, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime has weathered more than a decade of hardship, facing numerous challenges ranging from civil war to layers of international sanctions.

Syria: Another culprit contributing to the collapse of the 'Assad regime'. (Source: Reuters)

After a devastating civil war, what remains of the Syrian economy?

The Syrian economy was valued at $67.5 billion (equivalent to €63.9 billion) in 2011. The country ranked 68th out of 196 countries in the global GDP ranking, on par with Paraguay and Slovenia.

Sadly, 2011 was also the year that large-scale protests against President Bashar Assad's regime erupted, triggering rebel uprisings that escalated into a full-blown civil war.

According to DW , as of last year, the Syrian economy had officially fallen to 129th place globally, with its value decreasing by 85% to just $9 billion, according to estimates by the World Bank. This bad news has placed the country on par with the economies of Chad and the Palestinian Territories.

Nearly 14 years of conflict, coupled with a series of international sanctions and the displacement of 4.82 million people — more than one-fifth of the country's population — has transformed Syria into one of the poorest countries in the Middle East, with even its workforce dwindling.

According to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), as of December, 7 million Syrians, more than 30% of the population, remained displaced and wandering within their own country. The conflict has devastated the country's infrastructure, causing lasting damage to electricity, transportation, and healthcare systems. Several cities, including Aleppo, Raqqa, and Homs, have seen widespread destruction. The 4,000-year-old ancient city of Aleppo, once a vibrant and prosperous center renowned for its medieval architecture and rich cultural history, has been reduced to a desolate wasteland.

The civil war has caused the Syrian pound to depreciate significantly, leading to a sharp decline in purchasing power. Last year, the country experienced hyperinflation — very high and accelerating inflation, the Syrian Center for Policy Research (SCPR) said in a report published in June. The consumer price index (CPI) doubled compared to the previous year.

SCPR reports that more than half of Syrians are living in extreme poverty, unable to secure basic food security.

The two main pillars of the Syrian economy—oil and agriculture—have been devastated by the war. Although small compared to other Middle Eastern countries, Syria's oil exports accounted for about a quarter of government revenue in 2010. Food production contributed a similar amount to GDP.

President Assad's regime lost control of most of its oil fields to rebel groups, including the self-proclaimed Islamic State (IS) and later Kurdish-led forces.

Meanwhile, international sanctions have nearly crippled the government's ability to export oil. With oil production falling to just under 9,000 barrels per day in government-controlled areas last year, the country has become heavily reliant on oil imports from Iran.

When will Syria return to its former state?

Some observers of the Syrian situation have warned that, in the best-case scenario, it could take nearly 10 years for the country to return to its 2011 GDP levels and two decades to completely rebuild. But what worries is that Syria's prospects could worsen if political instability continues.

Before the task of rebuilding damaged cities, infrastructure, energy facilities, and agricultural sectors can begin, international analysts remain concerned about the future Syrian government.

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the group that led the uprising last weekend, said it is now working to form a new government. Syrian interim Prime Minister Mohammed al-Bashir declared that his government will operate until March 1, 2025, when a formal cabinet is formed as planned. He also emphasized that "it is time for the Syrian people to enjoy stability and peace after years of conflict."

However, strict international sanctions against Syria remain in effect, and HTS is also subject to some of the harshest international sanctions.

There have been immediate calls for the lifting or easing of those sanctions, but it could take weeks, months, or even longer.

Senior analyst Delaney Simon at the International Crisis Group wrote on social media that Syria is "one of the most heavily sanctioned countries in the world," adding that maintaining those restrictions would be like "pulling the rug out from under Syria just as it's trying to stand."

Without easing those restrictions, investors will continue to shy away from this war-torn country, and aid agencies may also have to be cautious about intervening to provide humanitarian aid – something critically important for the Syrian people right now.

In other news, in his first interview in his new role with Al Jazeera on December 10, al-Bashir said: "We have invited members from the old administration as well as some directors in Idlib to participate in supporting the transition process. Their task is to facilitate all the necessary work over the next two months, aimed at building a new constitutional system that serves the Syrian people."

Meanwhile, the Associated Press reported that the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden is considering whether to remove HTS from the list of terrorist groups, noting that HTS will be a "significant component" of Syria in the near future, according to two senior White House officials.

However, President-elect Donald Trump, who is just over a month away from taking office in the White House, recently stated on the social media platform Truth Social that Washington "shouldn't interfere."

Another priority in Syria's reconstruction is the eastern province of Deir el-Zour, which holds approximately 40% of Syria's oil reserves and several gas fields. The province is currently under the control of the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

Currently, following the nationwide curfew, most shops across Syria remain closed. However, some economic activity is gradually resuming; the Syrian Central Bank and several commercial banks have reopened, and employees have been asked to return to work. The Syrian currency will also continue to be used.

The Syrian Ministry of Oil also ordered all employees to return to work from December 10th and pledged to provide protective measures to ensure their safety.

UN aid chief Tom Fletcher wrote on X that his agency would "respond wherever, whenever, [and] however possible, to support those in need, reception centers are also being opened, including food, water, fuel, tents, blankets."

Meanwhile, several European countries immediately announced they would suspend asylum applications for Syrian citizens, and the United Nations refugee agency, UNHCR, called for "patience and vigilance" regarding the return of refugees. Austria went further than most EU countries, declaring that it was preparing an "orderly repatriation and deportation program" for Syrians.

Thus, the challenges facing Syria and its economy remain immense, and uncertainty still awaits them in the future. Meanwhile, the fragile recovery process will require significant support from the rest of the world.

Source: https://baoquocte.vn/syria-them-mot-thu-pham-day-de-che-assad-sup-do-chong-vanh-297231.html