USD exchange rate today (July 14): USD continues to maintain momentum...

USD exchange rate today: Early morning of July 14, the State Bank announced the central exchange rate of the Vietnamese Dong to the USD remains unchanged, currently at 25,128 VND.

The USD Index (DXY), which measures the greenback's performance against six major currencies, stood at 97.87.

Forecast of USD trend this week

The DXY index, which measures the value of the USD against six major currencies, is hovering around 97-98, pausing just before the important resistance level of 98.00. This level reflects the USD's slight recovery after hitting a multi-year low (around 96.30-96.40) in early July 2025. This recovery is largely supported by positive market sentiment towards US economic data, however, pressure from new trade policies, especially tariffs imposed by the Donald Trump administration, is creating both opportunities and risks for the USD.

Chart of DXY Index fluctuations over the past week. Photo: Marketwatch

The US Federal Reserve is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate at 4.25-4.5%. However, markets are expecting the Fed to cut rates by 0.25% at its September and December meetings, due to pressure from President Trump and some signs that inflation may be slowing. If US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, due in the coming days, shows higher-than-expected inflation, the Fed may delay a rate cut, thereby strengthening the US dollar. Conversely, if inflation is lower than expected, the US dollar could come under pressure as investors expect the Fed to ease policy sooner.

Another important factor is US trade policies, especially new tariffs. The Trump administration has announced a 35% tariff on imports from Canada and a 20% tariff on some other trading partners, in an effort to boost domestic production. These measures could increase prices in the US, pushing up inflation and supporting the dollar in the short term.

The situation in the Middle East will also affect market sentiment. A reduction in tensions in the region could reduce demand for the safe-haven US dollar, putting downward pressure on prices. Conversely, any unexpected developments, such as a military response from Iran or its allies, could send the US dollar soaring as investors seek safety. In addition, China’s GDP report, due this week, will also impact the US dollar. If China’s economy shows signs of weakness, the US dollar could benefit as Asian currencies like the yuan weaken.

While tariff concerns are supporting strength in the dollar, some traders remain skeptical about the medium-term outlook for the currency, which has come under selling pressure this year.

“My baseline forecast remains for a slow but steady decline in the dollar over the medium term. However, it has clearly fallen quite a bit in a short period of time, so there is now the potential for a modest recovery,” said Michael Brown, an analyst at Pepperstone.

The USD is likely to maintain a slight upward momentum or stabilize in a narrow range next week, with the DXY index fluctuating around 97-98.5. However, downside risks remain if geopolitical factors ease or the Fed signals an earlier-than-expected rate cut.

The USD tends to continue to maintain a slight upward trend. Photo: thoibaotaichinhvietnam.vn

Domestic USD exchange rate today

In the domestic market, at the beginning of the trading session on July 14, the State Bank announced the central exchange rate of the Vietnamese Dong against the USD at 25,128 VND.

* The reference USD exchange rate at the State Bank's buying and selling exchange center remains unchanged, currently at: 23,922 VND - 26,334 VND.

USD exchange rates at commercial banks are as follows: