Since the beginning of 2025, the domestic gold price has increased by a total of about 13 million VND/tael (15%), after an extremely hot 2024. The world gold price has also surpassed the 3,000 USD/ounce mark and is at its highest price ever. However, experts participating in the talk show "Investing in stocks, real estate or gold?", organized by Nguoi Lao Dong Newspaper on March 26, all commented that the market is facing many risks.
All investment channels are bright.
Gold expert Tran Duy Phuong analyzed that gold prices have been increasing continuously since the end of October 2023 - the time when geopolitical tensions broke out in the Middle East. In 2024, gold prices continued to increase sharply in a low interest rate environment when central banks in many countries cut interest rates. Since the end of 2024, US President Donald Trump's trade policies have continued to have a strong impact on gold. "Gold prices have increased by about 40% in 2024. Earlier this year, when the US, Canada, Mexico and China responded by imposing tariffs on each other, it pushed commodity prices to new highs; inflation increased in the context of a low interest rate environment, making gold prices benefit. The all-time high reached 3,056 USD/ounce and is currently above 3,000 USD/ounce. Domestic gold prices also increased following world gold prices, SJC gold prices have set a new high of 100.4 million VND/tael" - Mr. Phuong analyzed.
Regarding the stock market, on March 26, the VN-Index adjusted to 1,326.09 points, down 5.83 points compared to the previous session; the HNX-Index decreased by 3.23 points to 241.33 points. However, compared to the continuous increase of the previous 8 weeks, this was only a very gentle adjustment session. Mr. Nguyen The Minh, Director of Analysis - Individual Clients - Yuanta Vietnam Securities Company, analyzed that the 1,300-point mark of the VN-Index is considered a very strong psychological barrier for the Vietnamese stock market. However, thanks to major "catalysts" such as the prospect of market upgrading, low interest rates at commercial banks, accumulation throughout 2024 and attractive P/E valuation in 5 years... have helped the index increase rapidly. "After the VN-Index surpassed 1,300 points, it stimulated a massive cash flow, with trading value exceeding VND20,000 billion in some sessions. Many large enterprises are planning to list on the stock exchange or move from UpCoM to HoSE, creating new products for the market, which also helps the stock market to flourish," Mr. Minh analyzed.
Experts speak at the talk show “Investing in stocks, real estate or gold?”. Photo: TAN THANH
Meanwhile, the real estate market in some areas is suddenly bustling after a long period of stagnation. The newspaper Nguoi Lao Dong also published an article warning of virtual land fever in some areas just a few weeks after rumors of merging provinces and cities were spread. Economist - Dr. Dinh The Hien pointed out the macro factors that are supporting the real estate market, such as economic growth set at 8% or more; credit growth this year at 16% and interest rates maintained at low levels. However, is real estate really "hot"? "Some large real estate projects with high prices have buyers; while some segments of townhouses and land with lower prices are still very picky. Therefore, real estate is "hot" with real transactions, no need to observe further, avoid following rumors and taking risks" - Dr. Hien said.
Risk-Averse Investment Strategy
One of the questions that many people are interested in with the current gold market is whether they should buy at the price of 97-98 million VND/tael? Should those who have bought gold at the 100 million VND/tael mark in recent days cut their losses or continue to hold?
According to Mr. Tran Duy Phuong, gold prices are forecast to continue to increase this year, but the growth rate will hardly be equal to that of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025. At the same time, during the upward process, gold prices will still have some adjustments of 200-250 USD/ounce. And at this time, buying gold for short-term trading will be quite risky when world gold prices begin to decline. Recently, the issue of tariffs and interest rate cuts has been reflected in the sharp increase in gold prices. In the near future, gold prices will have adjustments when the trade war and tariffs are being resolved; geopolitical tensions cool down...
Regarding the specific investment strategy for 2025, gold expert Tran Duy Phuong said that investors who "jumped" at the peak of the gold price of 100 million VND/tael will suffer losses if they sell now. But if you do not borrow money to buy gold, you can continue to hold it. But buying gold now is not advisable, waiting for the gold price to reverse to buy will have a better profit. "For those who want to sell gold to take profit, if the expected profit is achieved - buying gold at 80-85 million, even 90 million VND/tael, you can sell. However, if you sell and the gold price continues to increase, you should not regret it, because no one can predict accurately. Selling when the expected level is reached is reasonable" - Mr. Phuong said.
In the stock market, although the VN-Index has increased for 8 consecutive weeks, there is a strong differentiation between industry groups. Within each industry group, there is also a differentiation between each group of stocks. For example, in the real estate group, while Vingroup stocks (VIC, VHM, VRE) have been trading well, increasing by 20%-40% in just the past few months, many other real estate stocks have not increased as expected.
The effective stock investment strategy in the industry groups mentioned by Mr. Nguyen The Minh is real estate and banking in the roadmap to upgrade the stock market. Because when upgraded, cash flow from investment funds will flow into large-cap stocks that meet the requirements. "In addition, stocks in the technology, electricity, consumer goods, securities, banking industries... will have prospects this year, when cash flow tends to spread throughout the market. Particularly, the technology stock group, although there has been a period of outstanding growth, has not yet experienced a bubble and still has quite bright prospects" - Mr. Minh stated his opinion.
If you have real housing needs, you should still buy real estate.
According to experts, the real estate market is showing signs of virtual fever, overheating in some segments, but the general level is still supported by many factors from a series of home loan packages from banks, policies to stabilize low interest rates, and continue to remove legal difficulties for projects.
Source: https://nld.com.vn/vang-chung-khoan-hay-bat-dong-san-196250326215452055.htm
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