Repeated raids on Belgorod province could force Russia to send troops from the front lines in Ukraine to protect the border, leaving the defense line thin.
Officials in Belgorod, the southwestern Russian province bordering Ukraine, on May 24 announced that many UAVs had infiltrated and dropped explosives on many structures in the provincial capital city. The drone raid occurred a day after two pro-Ukrainian armed groups on May 5 used several armored vehicles to cross the border into Belgorod, attacking a border checkpoint, killing one officer and injuring 22 others. love.
These are the largest and boldest cross-border raids since Russia began its operation in Ukraine. They also take place in the context of the Ukrainian army preparing to launch a major counter-offensive, forcing Russia to deploy forces to reinforce the defensive position on the front line of more than 1.000 km.
“The Ukrainians are trying to stretch Russian forces in different directions to create space. Russia would then be forced to send reinforcements to fill these gaps, further straining their forces," said Neil Melvin, an analyst at the Royal Research Institute for Defense and Security (RUSI). , speak.
Russia is concentrating most of its forces in the Donbass region, which has witnessed intense fighting for months, especially in the city of Donbass. Many elite Russian units are also located on the southern front, in case Ukraine attacks on the Crimean peninsula.
Meanwhile, cross-border raids were recently launched from the Kharkov region in northern Ukraine, about 160 kilometers from the front line. Although the incursions did not cause great damage to Russia, they created considerable disturbance in the lives of the people, forcing Moscow to quickly deploy countermeasures.
"They will have to respond and send more troops there, deploy more units to reinforce the border area, even though this may not be the direction of Ukraine's attack," Melvin said.
Members of the Ukrainian Volunteer Army in northern Ukraine, near the Russian border, May 24. Image: AFP
It took the Russian military two days to deploy its forces and repel the armed group that attacked the Belgorod region from May 22. They claimed to have killed more than 5 "terrorists" and accused Ukraine of being behind the raid.
Kiev denied, saying the attack was carried out by a Russian citizen, considering it an internal matter of Russia. Two armed groups operating in Ukraine, the Russian Volunteer Army (RVC) and the Russian Freedom Corps (FRL), claimed responsibility for the attack. These are two militia groups that include Russian fighters who once joined Ukraine's international corps.
After withdrawing to the Ukrainian border, the representatives of these two groups held a press conference in a forest in the north, declaring that they would continue infiltration activities across the Russian border in the near future and said that the security forces Russian security forces responded "slowly and weakly" to the attack.
Marl Galeotti, head of Mayak Intelligence consulting firm in London, said that the raid by the two armed groups was much smaller in scale than the operations of regular Russian-Ukrainian forces on the front lines. However, they still serve as Ukraine's "battle-shaping" operation on the eve of the counter-offensive.
“This is an attempt to hit two targets with one arrow. It made Moscow feel insecure, worried about domestic security risks, and forced the Russian military to disperse its forces, which had suffered a lot of their losses after more than 15 months of fighting," he said.
Sergey Radchenko, an international relations expert at Johns Hopkins University, said the border raids also showed that Russia's security had deteriorated after more than a year of hostilities in Ukraine.
“This is why Ukrainian intelligence is interested in cross-border offensive operations by militia groups, which have no strategic significance. The message they send from such raids is to expose holes in Russia's security network," he said. Such vulnerabilities will force Russia to spend a lot of resources to patch, affecting its ability to defend on the Ukrainian battlefield.
The province of Belogrod and the capital of the same name. Graphics: FT
Igor Girkin, a former officer of the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) who once joined the militia in eastern Ukraine, wrote on Telegram on May 24 that the raids would lead to "the formation of a new front along the border". world", forcing the Russian army to reallocate forces to strengthen the position.
This will give the Ukrainian military an important advantage, as they plan a major counter-offensive, according to Girkin.
“The raids show that the Russian border is extremely vulnerable. Ukrainian forces not only conduct long-range attacks against infrastructure in Crimea or Lugansk, but also coordinate operations with militias that conduct harassment," said Samuel Ramani, an expert on operations. Russian military action at Oxford University, said.
However, observers also believe that the raid may partly benefit the Russian leadership in the information war, especially when the pro-Ukrainian armed group uses US armor to attack targets in the country. Belgorod.
“The Russian military has praised its efforts to successfully stop a campaign of sabotage and terrorism backed by Ukraine and the West. That is to arouse concern in the Russian public about the threat from the West, to help strengthen support and solidarity for the operation in Ukraine," said Ramani.
Thanh Tam (Follow Reuters, NBC News)
