13:36, 09/06/2023
The collapse of the Kakhovka dam in Kherson province has caused massive flooding in southern Ukraine, threatening to wash away villages and thwart hopes of Ukrainian forces advancing across the Dnieper River.
Russia and Ukraine have accused each other of intentionally destroying the dam. Meanwhile, experts are assessing the damage to the environment, and authorities on both sides are working hard to evacuate thousands of people. Currently, a big question is how the Kakhovka dam failure will affect the Russia-Ukraine conflict and how does it affect the parties involved?
Impact on Russia
When the Kakhovka dam broke, Ukraine immediately blamed Russian forces, which control the dam and the surrounding area. The incident came less than 48 hours after Moscow announced that Ukraine was officially launching a long-planned counter-offensive. Kiev officials say the timing may not be a coincidence.
Kherson has long been seen as a potential target for a Ukrainian counterattack. Russia has controlled Kherson since 2022, shortly after launching a special military operation in Ukraine.
Russia then withdrew from the city of Kherson and established defenses on the eastern bank of the Dnieper, while Ukraine controlled the area on the west bank of the river. The Dnieper River, where the Kakhovka Dam lies, now serves as a natural boundary separating regions controlled by Russia and Ukraine.
Ukraine has repeatedly warned in the past that Russia may be planning to blow up the dam, while Moscow has issued a similar warning about Ukraine. Christopher Tuck, a conflict and security expert at King's College London, said: "The dam failure could give Russia an advantage because Moscow is strategically defensive and Ukraine is offensive. . Kiev will certainly have a hard time crossing the river due to the high flood waters."
An increase in the intensity of Ukrainian attacks on the front lines this week may be a sign that Ukraine has begun to counterattack, but the size of the battlefield is shrinking. According to analysts, this could benefit Russia.
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| The Nova Kakhovka dam collapsed in Kherson region, southern Ukraine, on June 6. Photo: Reuters |
Michael A. Horowitz, geopolitical and security analyst - head of intelligence at consulting firm Le Beck, said: "The failure of the Kakhovka dam will make Ukraine's attempt to cross the river significantly hindered. say, not even do. More importantly, it will reduce the area of the front lines that the Russian army needs to protect after the fierce fighting in the winter that consumes both human and material resources.
Adviser to the President of Ukraine, Mykhailo Podolyak, accused Russia of blowing up the dam with the aim of "creating an obstacle to Kiev's offensive activities". According to some Western officials, the US government has intelligence sources that favor the possibility that Russia is behind the attack on the Kakhovka dam.
Impact on Ukraine
For its part, Russia denies all the accusations made by Ukraine and the West, and accuses Kiev of destroying the dam to distract attention from the massive counter-offensive. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu suggested that Kiev could take advantage of the dam failure to move its units from the Kherson frontline to more needed places.
Some Russian military bloggers argue that the dam failure will benefit Ukraine because the areas controlled by Moscow will be hardest hit. Floodwaters will disrupt mine traps and damage Russian frontline positions. According to some analysts, the defenses that Russia has painstakingly built over the past several months will be partially affected, but there is no clear indication of Ukraine's motives yet.
According to expert Michael A. Horowitz, the failure of the Kakhovka dam will make both sides lose some advantages. “Some of the defenses that the Russian military has built along the coast will be lost and this will certainly affect settlements in areas controlled by Russia. As for Ukraine, this would lead to an environmental disaster and the risk of losing one of the main energy sources in the south.”
A few months before the incident, experts expressed concern about the risk to the Kakhovka dam, warning that the reservoir at its back was already too full due to heavy rain and melting snow. “The dam failure was a disaster for everyone,” said Frank Ledwidge, a lecturer in military strategy at the University of Portsmouth in the UK.
Can Ukraine's counterattack be thwarted?
It is still too early to determine how the dam failure will affect the Ukrainian counter-offensive, especially since Kiev has kept its plans absolutely secret. But many observers say the incident could hinder ground attacks and force the Ukrainian government to focus all its attention and resources on remedial action.
Phillips O'Brien, professor of strategic studies at St. Andrews in Scotland notes: “A hydroelectric dam failure could leave large areas inundated for long periods of time. The wet and muddy conditions on the ground will make it difficult for Ukraine to move large numbers of armored vehicles or artillery to disrupt Russian fortifications.
And according to expert Christopher Tuck, it is very unlikely that the dam failure will stop Ukraine's counterattack completely: "River attacks are often very difficult, so Ukraine can choose to attack along the axis. inland rather than along the Dnieper. But flooding could disrupt secondary Ukrainian attacks from that direction.”
Even before the dam failure occurred, the Dnieper River was considered a significant obstacle to Ukrainian forces. They will have to find a way to cross this river by boat, overpass or pontoon or helicopter. All of those vehicles are at risk of being attacked.
Instead of crossing the Dnieper River, Ukraine could choose to attack the eastern side of the river, in the Zaporizhia region, said Michael Kofman, director of the Russian Studies Program at CNA. This offensive would help them avoid a dangerous river crossing, while still giving them a chance to separate Russian forces south of Kherson and in the eastern region.
“If Ukraine's plan is to break through the Russian defenses in Zaporizhia and advance to the land line from Crimea, or to cut off the land corridor connecting to the Crimean peninsula, flooding will probably not impede operations. theirs,” noted Michael Kofman.
According to VOV
