The WTO forecasts that global merchandise trade volumes will grow by 2.7% in 2024, despite risks that may arise from conflicts around the world. The WTO also highlights the growing importance of so-called “connector states” in global trade and supply chains, particularly Mexico, Vietnam and India.
According to the updated Global Trade Outlook Report released on October 10, the figure is higher than the 2.6% forecast that the organization made in April. This forecast adjustment is based on previous positive data. According to the report, global merchandise trade has been on an upward trend in the first half of 2024, with an increase of 2.3% compared to the same period in 2023. This trend is forecast to continue until the end of 2024, but at a moderate level, and may extend into 2025.
According to the Director General of the World Trade Organization (WTO) Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, although there are grounds to expect a gradual recovery in global trade this year, countries still need to be cautious about potential risks, especially the risk of escalating geopolitical tensions in regions around the world such as the Middle East. In that case, the countries directly affected may suffer the most serious impacts. In addition, conflicts also affect global energy markets and shipping activities, leading to fluctuations in global trade activities. Ms. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala called on countries to continue making efforts to promote comprehensive and inclusive growth in global trade, ensuring global economic stability and sustainable growth.
Regionally, demand for goods exports and imports in Asia is stronger than in Europe. Specifically, the report stated that Asia's export volume will increase by 7.4% in 2024, faster than other regions. The region witnessed a strong recovery in goods exports in the first half of this year, with the main drivers being China, Singapore and South Korea.
However, import activity in Asia shows mixed trends. While China’s exports are growing only modestly, other countries such as Singapore, Malaysia, India and Vietnam are growing strongly. This shift reflects the emerging role of the latter, which the WTO calls “connecting countries” across regions despite conflicts, and thus may help reduce the risk of fragmentation in global economic activities.
As explained by Mr. Ralph Ossa - chief economist of the WTO, currently much cross-regional trade seems to be conducted through these connecting countries, while many other direct bilateral trade relationships are affected.
South America is also on track to recover in 2024, after seeing a decline in both exports and imports in 2023. Africa’s merchandise export growth is in line with global trends.
The WTO forecasts global economic growth to stabilize at 2.7% in both 2024 and 2025. Asia will see the fastest growth this year, forecast at 4%. Meanwhile, the growth group for the European region is forecast at 1.1%.
According to VNA
Source: https://doanhnghiepvn.vn/kinh-te/wto-danh-gia-cao-vai-tro-cua-viet-nam-trong-chuoi-cung-ung-va-thuong-mai-toan-cau/20241011090136703
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