The WTO forecasts that global merchandise trade volume will increase by 2.7% in 2024, despite potential risks arising from conflicts around the world. The WTO also emphasizes the growing importance of so-called "connected nations" in global supply chains and trade, particularly Mexico, Vietnam, and India.
According to the updated Global Trade Outlook report published on October 10th, the figure is higher than the 2.6% forecast the organization made in April. This adjustment is based on previously positive data. The report indicates that global merchandise trade showed an upward trend in the first half of 2024, increasing by 2.3% year-on-year in 2023. This trend is projected to continue through the end of 2024, albeit at a moderate pace, and may extend into 2025.
According to the Director-General of the World Trade Organization (WTO), Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, while there are grounds to expect a gradual recovery in global trade this year, countries still need to be cautious about potential risks, especially the risk of escalating geopolitical tensions in regions around the world such as the Middle East. In that case, directly affected countries could suffer the most serious consequences. Furthermore, conflicts also affect global energy markets and shipping activities, leading to volatility in global trade. Ms. Okonjo-Iweala urged countries to continuously strive to promote inclusive and comprehensive global trade growth, ensuring global economic stability and sustainable growth.
For each region, the demand for import and export goods in Asia is stronger than in Europe. Specifically, the report predicts that Asia's export volume will increase by 7.4% in 2024, faster than other regions. The region witnessed a strong recovery in goods exports in the first half of this year, with the main drivers being China, Singapore, and South Korea.
However, import activity in Asia shows contrasting trends. While China's exports have only grown modestly, other countries such as Singapore, Malaysia, India, and Vietnam are experiencing strong growth. This shift highlights the emerging role of these countries, referred to by the WTO as "connected nations" across regions despite conflicts, thus potentially helping to mitigate the risk of fragmentation in global economic activity.
According to Ralph Ossa, the WTO's chief economist, much of the cross-regional trade appears to be conducted through these connected countries, while many other direct bilateral trade relationships are being affected.
The South American region is also on track for recovery in 2024, after experiencing declines in both exports and imports in 2023. African commodity export growth is in line with global trends.
The WTO forecasts global economic growth to stabilize at 2.7% in both 2024 and 2025. Asia is expected to see the fastest growth this year, projected at 4%. Meanwhile, Europe's growth is projected at 1.1%.
According to VNA
Source: https://doanhnghiepvn.vn/kinh-te/wto-danh-gia-cao-vai-role-of-vietnam-in-the-global-supply-chain-and-trade/20241011090136703
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