Import and export exports experience strong breakthroughs.

In the first five months of 2026, import and export activities saw a strong surge, with high growth in various sectors, and an increase in turnover of approximately $90 billion compared to the same period last year. However, in this race, the domestic business sector lagged behind.

A new record has been set.

Geopolitical shifts impacting supply chains, increased import standards in many markets, and rising shipping costs do not seem to hinder the export race.

Imports and exports in May 2026 exceeded $99 billion, marking the first time merchandise trade reached this record level. As a result, in the first five months of the year, the total import and export turnover of the whole country exceeded $445 billion, an increase of 25% compared to the same period last year, or nearly $90 billion, demonstrating the pivotal role of the nation as one of the world's top 20 largest trading countries.

A highlight of trade in the first five months was exports reaching US$215.66 billion, a 19.5% increase (equivalent to a US$35.13 billion increase), while imports reached US$229.46 billion, a 30.8% increase (equivalent to a US$54 billion increase). Due to the continuous increase in imports in recent months, the trade balance showed a deficit of nearly US$14 billion (compared to a trade surplus of over US$5 billion in the same period last year).

Exports increased significantly in the first five months, but the growth rate of the domestic business sector is slowing down, while the FDI sector is surging. Statistics show that the domestic economic sector exported $43.5 billion, a mere 2.5% increase, accounting for 20.2% of total export turnover; while the FDI sector (including crude oil) reached $172.16 billion, a strong increase of 24.7%, accounting for 79.8%.

Sectors that recorded strong growth included electronics, computers and components, up 46.2% ($56.1 billion); machinery, equipment, tools and other parts, up 22.1% ($27 billion); telephones and components, up 17.7% ($26.37 billion); and transportation vehicles and parts, up 17.1% ($8 billion).

The textile, footwear, wood, and wood products sectors generated a trade surplus and showed growth, albeit at a low rate of only 0.4%, 0.2%, and 2.9% respectively compared to the same period last year, with corresponding export values ​​of US$15.1 billion, US$9.78 billion, and US$7.02 billion. These sectors face challenges due to slow market demand recovery and rising transportation and insurance costs.

For agricultural products, the export race has been boosted by efforts to raise standards and meet the requirements of importers, resulting in significant growth in several agricultural product groups (fruits and vegetables increased by 20.4%, pepper increased by 14.4%...).

For the fisheries sector, May alone brought in $1.02 billion, bringing the cumulative total for the first five months of 2026 to $4.67 billion, an 11% increase compared to the same period last year.

According to the Vietnam Association of Seafood Processing and Export (VASEP), the double-digit increase shows that the seafood industry is still maintaining its recovery momentum, but this result does not fully reflect the difficulties behind it, as orders are more cautious, the market is more fragmented, and compliance requirements are increasingly becoming a key condition for retaining customers.

Notably, Vietnamese seafood exports to China and Hong Kong reached US$1.2 billion, a 40.5% increase over the past five months. Increased demand for shrimp, pangasius, crab, mollusks, and other high-value seafood in these markets significantly supported exports as businesses capitalized on opportunities to secure orders.

Stay focused on the core market.

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Thanks to thorough market analysis, timely information gathering, flexible production management, and accurate calculation of consumer purchasing power, export growth to key markets has consistently reached double digits.

Of these, the US continues to be Vietnam's largest export market, with a turnover of $69.6 billion, an increase of 21.6% compared to the same period; exports to the EU reached $26 billion, an increase of 13.2%; China reached $30.1 billion, an increase of 28.2%; South Korea reached $13.2 billion, an increase of 14.7%; ASEAN reached $18.5 billion, an increase of 16.9%; and Japan reached $12.1 billion, an increase of 14.2%.

These six markets/regions alone purchased $171 billion worth of goods from Vietnam in the first five months of the year, ranging from electronics and machinery to textiles, wood products, and seafood.

The Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade) assesses that the acceleration of exports amidst difficulties both domestically and internationally shows that businesses in major export sectors are effectively utilizing free trade agreements such as EVFTA, CPTPP, RCEP... to create a competitive advantage.

"FTAs continue to be effective in expanding export markets and reducing tariff barriers, thereby helping exports achieve new growth milestones," the Import-Export Department stated.

Order variables in the second half of the year

Having gone through nearly the first half of the year, the export picture is positive, but this result is not a guarantee for the second half of the year because risks are still lurking, along with unanswered questions.

For seafood, despite positive growth in the first five months, orders for the second half of the year remain uncertain, most notably the unpredictable situation in the US and EU, facing negative growth rates of -10% and -2.2% respectively.

VASEP recognizes that the US and EU are two markets with significant pressure regarding tariffs, trade protection measures, traceability, food safety, combating illegal fishing, and sustainable development.

Nevertheless, VASEP forecasts that seafood exports in 2026 could reach an increase of approximately 8-10%, with a value exceeding $12 billion, if the Chinese market continues to maintain demand, pangasius retains its price advantage, and shrimp improves its competitiveness. Conversely, if compliance costs, logistics, trade protection measures, and raw material shortages persist, growth in the second half of the year will slow down.

For manufacturing industries, the biggest concern is exporting to the US, because the trade negotiations and reciprocal tariff levels are still unclear.

Virginia B. Foote, founder and president of Bay Global Strategies and president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Hanoi (AmCham Hanoi), commented that Vietnam is facing a crucial stage in trade negotiations with the US, as the deadline for completing the Countervailing Duty Agreement (ART) is approaching.

Information from recent contacts indicates that bilateral Vietnam-US negotiating teams, from the technical level to the highest level, have been actively deployed and are expected to finalize the agreement in June 2026.

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"From now until July 24th, Vietnam's most important goal is to finalize the signing of the ART agreement with the US to establish stable tariffs for exported goods, in the context of many direct competitors having already reached initial agreements with Washington," Ms. Foote said.

Export businesses are increasingly interested in reciprocal tariff agreements with the US as many of Vietnam's competitors have already taken a step ahead in establishing tariff frameworks with Washington.

Indonesia and Bangladesh have reached initial agreements with an ART tariff rate of 19%, while maintaining the Most Favored Nation (MFN) tariff regime. Meanwhile, China will not sign an ART agreement, but is expected to sign two other trade agreements with the US and is projected to apply a rate around 20%.

However, tariff competition has not changed the positive assessment of the US market this year. VnDirect Securities' analysis department believes that consumer demand in the US continues to remain relatively stable. Nevertheless, external risks still need to be monitored. The US's 10% global tariff under Section 122 (Section 301, US Trade Act of 1974) is expected to expire in July 2026, while the trend of increasing trade reviews for countries with large surpluses like Vietnam has not yet subsided.

In 2026, exports are targeted to grow by 15-16%. Exports have shown strong growth in the first five months; however, imports of raw materials, machinery, and equipment have exceeded exports in recent months, widening the trade deficit. Nevertheless, experts believe this is not a cause for concern, as the high import volume is to stockpile raw materials in preparation for the year-end production cycle.

Source: https://baodautu.vn/xuat-nhap-khau-but-pha-manh-me-d615560.html