ASEAN maintains balance in an uncertain world.

In a world increasingly uncertain by geopolitical conflicts, strategic competition, and the risk of global economic fragmentation, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is demonstrating a remarkable characteristic: the ability to transform challenges into drivers of cooperation, and external pressures into opportunities to strengthen internal capabilities.

In a recent article published on the World Economic Forum (WEF) website, international experts assert that ASEAN's resilience is increasingly becoming a crucial strategic advantage, helping the region maintain growth, play a central role in the Asia-Pacific regional structure, and build trust with global partners.

This assessment is made against the backdrop of a continuously turbulent international environment, ranging from protracted conflicts in the Middle East and strategic competition between major powers to the risk of economic fragmentation and disruption of global supply chains. These pressures pose increasingly significant challenges to ASEAN's role.

In an uncertain world , ASEAN has consistently pursued an approach based on dialogue, restraint, and balancing interests. Source: Reuters

However, instead of being drawn into a spiral of confrontation, ASEAN is emerging as one of the few regions that continues to pursue multilateralism, promoting economic cooperation and maintaining dialogue mechanisms among parties with differing interests. After nearly six decades of development, ASEAN has not only become one of the world's most dynamic growth centers, but has also gradually built resilience against economic, financial, and geopolitical shocks.

This is why the current ASEAN narrative is no longer simply about economic growth or regional integration, but reflects how Southeast Asia is striving to shape a flexible and balanced development model in an increasingly polarized world.

From a "fragile" region to a dynamic growth center.

ASEAN was founded in 1967 in Bangkok, Thailand, at a time when Southeast Asia was still facing significant political instability, strategic divisions, and limited economic resources. At that time, few could have imagined that the region, once considered a "hotspot" of geopolitical competition, could become one of the world's most dynamic growth centers.

However, over the decades, ASEAN has gradually built trust among its member states, promoted economic cooperation, and shaped regional mechanisms based on the principles of consensus, non-interference, and dialogue.

One of the key milestones was the establishment of the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) in 1992. Subsequently, the formation of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) further boosted intra-regional trade, cross-border production, and attracted international investment.

As a result, ASEAN is emerging as a new growth pole of the global economy. According to data from ASEANStats, the region's combined GDP has increased from approximately US$2.5 trillion in 2015 to US$4.3 trillion in 2025. The value of merchandise trade has almost doubled, from US$2.3 trillion to US$4.4 trillion during the same period. Foreign direct investment (FDI) has also surged from US$115.4 billion to nearly US$242 billion.

These figures reflect the growing confidence of the international community in Southeast Asia as an emerging hub for manufacturing, consumption, and innovation. Amidst the restructuring of many global supply chains following the Covid-19 pandemic and geopolitical tensions, ASEAN is seen as an attractive destination due to its large market, young workforce, and strategic location in international trade.

Resilience is developed through crises.

It is noteworthy that ASEAN's resilience did not emerge by chance, but was forged through a series of regional and global crises.

Following the 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis, ASEAN recognized the need to strengthen regional economic coordination and monitoring mechanisms. The ASEAN Monitoring Process was launched in 1998 to enhance early warning capabilities and policy coordination. Subsequently, the Chiang Mai Initiative, established in 2000 with the participation of ASEAN+3, laid the foundation for regional financial cooperation, enabling countries to better respond to global financial fluctuations.

During the Covid-19 pandemic, ASEAN continued to demonstrate its adaptability by maintaining supply chain connectivity, promoting health cooperation, and implementing the Hanoi Action Plan to mitigate the impact of the pandemic on the regional economy.

Even amidst the Middle East conflict, which increases the risk of global energy and transportation disruptions, ASEAN has been quick to promote cooperation mechanisms to ensure energy security. At the 48th ASEAN Summit in Cebu, Philippines, earlier this May, regional leaders called for an early extension of the ASEAN Petroleum Security Agreement (APSA), thereby strengthening the ability to coordinate responses to energy shocks.

The ability to respond quickly to crises while maintaining a long-term vision has become a hallmark of ASEAN. This is also why the region continues to maintain its growth momentum while many major economies around the world face the risk of decline.

According to forecasts by the Asian Development Bank (ADB), developing Southeast Asia could achieve growth of around 4.6% in 2026, thanks to stable domestic demand and continued expanding infrastructure investment.

Maintaining a balance between geopolitical competition

One of the biggest challenges facing ASEAN today is the increasingly complex geopolitical environment. Competition between major powers, military conflicts, and the trend of economic fragmentation are creating growing pressure on Southeast Asian nations.

However, instead of choosing confrontation or taking a definitive side, ASEAN continues to pursue an approach based on dialogue, restraint, and balancing interests.

The admission of Timor-Leste as the 11th member of ASEAN in 2025 is also seen as evidence of the bloc's flexibility and scalability. After a 14-year process, Timor-Leste's accession is not only politically significant but also demonstrates ASEAN's continued appeal in an increasingly polarized world.

More importantly, ASEAN is demonstrating that regional cooperation does not necessarily have to be based on absolute homogeneity, but can exist based on mechanisms of dialogue and governance of differences.

Strengthening its central role in a fragmented world.

Nearly 60 years after its founding, ASEAN is entering a new phase with many opportunities but also numerous challenges. Strategic competition among major powers, climate change, the risk of supply chain disruptions, and the trend towards economic protectionism continue to create an environment of great uncertainty.

However, what helps ASEAN maintain its position is not only its market size or growth rate, but also its ability to maintain dialogue, build trust, and promote cooperation in an increasingly polarized world.

From a region once divided by war and instability, ASEAN has gradually built a regional community based on cooperation and multilateralism. In the current global context, this may well be ASEAN's greatest strategic advantage. Because in a volatile world, the ability to transform uncertainty into cooperation and crises into drivers of development may determine ASEAN's role in the regional and global order in the coming decades.

The ASEAN Future Forum 2026 is about to take place.

The ASEAN Future Forum (AFF) 2026 is scheduled to take place in Hanoi in mid-June 2026 with the theme “Together Building a Shared Future: Peace, Prosperity and People-Centered Development”. This is the third time Vietnam has hosted this forum, aiming to create an open, inclusive, and forward-looking dialogue space for regional leaders, academics, businesses, and experts, reflecting Vietnam's efforts to contribute more proactively to shaping the region's strategic priorities.

According to the Vietnamese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, AFF 2026 is expected to contribute initiatives, policy recommendations, and new perspectives to serve the implementation of the ASEAN Community Vision 2045. It is also an opportunity for ASEAN to continue sending a message about its adaptability, maintaining dialogue, and strengthening its central role in the rapidly changing regional structure.

Source: https://daibieunhandan.vn/asean-giu-can-bang-trong-the-gioi-bat-dinh-10418076.html