From October to December 2024, storms and tropical depressions in the East Sea are likely to appear higher than the average of many years (4-5 storms/year). The number of storms making landfall may be higher than the average of many years (1.9 storms/year); concentrated in the Central region and the southern provinces; be on guard for the possibility of storms and tropical depressions forming right in the East Sea.
Regarding the rain situation, Mr. Nguyen Van Huong noted that the rainy season in the Central region is likely to start from around mid-September in the North of the Central region and late September in the Central region; warning of a high risk of heavy rain and flooding in the Central region in October - November.
Along with that, cold air is likely to be active in November - December 2024, in which severe cold in the North is likely to appear from the second half of December (equivalent to the average of many years).
Regarding the total rainfall and flood situation in the regions, Mr. Nguyen Van Huong forecasted that the total rainfall in the North in October - November will be generally 10 - 20% higher than the average of many years; in December, it will be generally 20 - 40mm; 5 - 10mm lower than the average of many years in the same period.
In the Central region, in October and November, rainfall is generally 10-30mm higher than the average of many years. In December, in the North Central region, rainfall is generally 15-30mm, especially in the provinces of South Nghe An - Ha Tinh, rainfall is generally 50-100mm, lower than the average of many years by 5-10mm; in the provinces of Quang Binh - Quang Tri, rainfall is generally 100-200mm, higher than the average of many years by 10-15mm; in the provinces from Thua Thien - Hue to Khanh Hoa, rainfall is generally 250-500mm, in some places higher than the average of many years by 30-60mm; in the Ninh Thuan - Binh Thuan region, rainfall is generally 30-80mm, higher than the average of many years by 15-30mm.
The total rainfall in the Central Highlands and the South from October to November is 5-20% higher than the average of many years. In December, in the Central Highlands, it is generally 30-50mm, while in some places in the Southern Central Highlands and the South, it is generally 50-80mm, and in some places it is 10-30mm higher than the average of many years in the same period.
In October 2024, floods are likely to occur on the rivers of the North with peak water levels on major rivers at alert level 1, and on small rivers at alert level 1 - alert level 2. From October to December, the flow on rivers in the North is generally at or 10 - 20% higher than the average of many years, Tuyen Quang lake (on Gam river) and Thac Ba (on Chay river) are 30 - 70% higher than the average of many years; the flow to large reservoirs on the Da river is 5 - 10% lower than the average of many years.
In the North Central region, from October to November, rivers in Thanh Hoa are likely to experience 1-2 small floods; rivers in Nghe An and Ha Tinh are likely to experience 3-4 floods. The peak flood level of the downstream Ma River is still below alert level 1, the downstream Ca and La Rivers are at alert level 1 - alert level 2. The flow rate on rivers in Thanh Hoa is 60-160% higher than the average of the same period in September - November and 10% higher in December; the downstream rivers in Nghe An are 10-40% higher in November - December, and the Ngan Sau River is 40-45% higher in November - December.
In the Central Central region, in the second half of September, the water level on rivers is likely to have 1-2 floods and fluctuate. From October to December, on rivers in the Central Central region, there is a possibility of 3-5 floods, in which major floods on rivers are mainly concentrated from October to November. The flood peak on rivers is likely to be at alert level 2 - alert level 3, some rivers are above alert level 3. The annual flood peak is likely to be approximately equal to or higher than the average of many years. From October to December, the flow on rivers from Quang Binh to Quang Ngai is approximately equal to or higher than the average of many years from 10 - 29%.
In the South Central region, during October - December, 2 - 4 floods occurred on rivers in the region, the flood peaks of rivers in Binh Dinh and Khanh Hoa were at alert level 2 - alert level 3, some places above alert level 3; the flood peaks of the main rivers in Phu Yen, Ninh Thuan, and Binh Thuan fluctuated at alert level 2. The flow on rivers was generally at approximately the same level and 30 - 50% higher than the average of many years in the same period; in particular, La Nga River (South Binh Thuan) was at approximately the average of many years.
In the second half of September - November, there is a possibility of 3 - 5 floods on rivers in the Central Highlands, with flood peaks reaching alert levels 2 - 3, with some rivers above alert level 3. The total flow on rivers is generally lower than the average of many years in the same period, rivers in the Northern Central Highlands are 15 - 60% lower than the average of many years, rivers in the Southern Central Highlands are 3 - 38% lower; in particular, the Krong Ana River, EaKrong River, and Dak Nong River are at levels higher than the average of many years.
“The Mekong River water level will gradually rise, peaking around October 2024 and fluctuating at alert level 1, flood peaks at downstream stations of the Mekong River will be at alert level 2 - alert level 3 and above alert level 3, appearing in October - December. Coastal areas in the North, North Central and Central Central regions need to be on guard against large waves combined with rising water due to the impact of storms and tropical depressions in October - December, with a high risk of riverbank and coastal erosion,” said Mr. Nguyen Van Huong.
From October to December, due to the influence of the Northeast monsoon, wave heights in the Gulf of Tonkin, the sea off the Central Coast, and the North and Central East Sea can reach over 4m, with rough seas. The coastal provinces and cities of the Southeast region need to be on guard against high tides during this time, which can cause flooding in low-lying areas, riverside areas, and areas outside the dikes in this area.
Baotintuc.vn
Source: https://baotintuc.vn/van-de-quan-tam/bao-do-bo-vao-dat-lien-du-bao-tang-nguy-co-mua-lu-don-dap-o-trung-bo-20240916153905209.htm
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