The era of "speculative" real estate trading is over.

VTV.vn - In 2026, the market is shifting towards a long-term strategy, and only those with strong financial capacity and a sustainable vision will be able to survive.

The era of short-term speculation is over; real estate is entering a long-term game.

Screening

According to research data from the Vietnam Association of Real Estate Brokers (VARS), in 2025, the entire market will record approximately 128,000 new products launched, the highest level in the 2019-2025 period and approaching the peak of supply. However, this increase cannot completely solve the housing shortage, as the supply structure continues to be unbalanced.

Because the majority of new supply comes from high-end apartment projects and high-value low-rise properties, while the affordable housing segment for the majority of the population remains severely lacking. Approximately 25% of the apartment supply on the market is priced above 100 million VND per square meter, mainly concentrated in a few large developers.

Mr. Nguyen Van Dinh, Chairman of the Vietnam Real Estate Brokers Association, pointed out that this supply-demand imbalance makes it difficult for real buyers to access the market, even with more products available. At the same time, this also increases the risk for short-term investment strategies that rely on the expectation of rapid price increases.

In fact, despite improved supply, real estate prices continue to set new benchmarks. This is due to pent-up housing demand over many years, along with supporting factors such as economic growth, infrastructure investment, and increasingly high project development costs. Many newly launched projects have recorded positive absorption rates, even experiencing sell-outs, with buyers having to pay premiums to own a property. During this period, investment capital flowed strongly into the market, helping many investors achieve high profits in a short time.

However, from the end of 2025, the market landscape began to change as supply increased across the board, and liquidity was no longer evenly distributed across all regions and segments. According to Mr. Dinh Minh Tuan, Director of the Southern region of Batdongsan.com.vn, the era of "profitable investments everywhere" is over. The current market is no longer suitable for short-term speculative strategies. Profit margins have narrowed significantly, while risks have increased, especially for investors using high financial leverage.

Furthermore, one of the fundamental factors reshaping the market is the breakthrough in transportation infrastructure. The accelerated investment in expressways, ring roads, and inter-regional routes over the past years has not only increased real estate values ​​but also shortened travel times and expanded development opportunities to suburban areas and satellite cities.

In 2025 alone, the whole country will start and inaugurate 564 projects with a total investment of over 5.14 million billion VND; of which private capital accounts for nearly 75%. The total length of expressways, interchanges and access roads all exceed the targets of the 2021-2025 five-year socio-economic development plan.

Alongside infrastructure development, resolving legal obstacles for projects has also become a crucial driving force for supply. Approximately 1,000 projects have had their difficulties resolved and resumed implementation, while many large-scale projects have been approved and implemented early to avoid the risk of land reclamation under the new regulations.

Mr. Nguyen Quoc Anh, Deputy General Director of Batdongsan.com.vn, commented that when supply is released on a large scale, the market is forced to enter a phase of genuine competition. The days of uniform price increases are over; projects that want to sell must demonstrate their usability, infrastructure connectivity, and complete legal documentation.

Investors can no longer easily achieve quick profits as they did in the past.

Long-term investment

With real estate prices in major cities rising relative to average incomes, and capital costs, especially loan interest rates, trending upwards, the market is gradually shrinking in terms of participants. Buyers seeking a place to live are forced to have a solid financial foundation and the ability to accumulate wealth long-term. Investors also find it increasingly difficult to achieve quick profits as in previous periods.

Strategies based on unverified information, herd mentality, or short-term expectations are increasingly risky, especially in the context of gradually increasing market data transparency, including the assignment of unique identifiers to real estate properties - experts advise.

According to Mr. Nguyen Van Dinh, the market is forcing investors to change their mindset. "The new game is not for hot money. Investors who want to survive must focus on real value, long-term exploitation potential, and accept longer investment cycles," the VARS Chairman stated.

Not only investors, but also developers face significant pressure from land costs, project development costs, and financing costs. Businesses lacking financial capacity, overly reliant on loans, or developing products that are out of sync with market demand will soon reveal their risks.

VARS believes that, in a market shifting towards genuine competition, the reputation and capabilities of the developer become the core competitive advantage. Projects that ensure timely completion, full legal compliance, and transparent information will have a clear advantage in attracting investment.

In the long term, VARS believes that real estate prices will not experience a "hot" surge, but are also unlikely to fall sharply. High demand for housing, economic growth, and continued infrastructure investment are supporting factors for the market. In addition, increased project development costs and financial obligations related to land under the new price list are also creating a new price level.

However, in 2026, market demand will be highly selective. Projects with selling prices far exceeding their true value, poorly connected locations, incomplete legal documentation, or those unsuitable for actual living needs risk experiencing a "frozen" transaction.

The real estate market is moving away from a growth phase based on short-term expectations and entering a slower but more sustainable development cycle. Profits will no longer come from speculative trading, but from the true value, financial capacity, and long-term strategies of market participants.

Source: https://vtv.vn/bat-dong-san-het-thoi-luot-song-100260124152459157.htm