Regarding the development of natural disasters and storms in 2024, informing Dan Viet, expert Nguyen Van Huong - Head of Weather Forecast Department, National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, stated that due to the impact of climate change, increasing extremity, Vietnam's weather in 2024 will have complex natural disasters and hydrometeorological developments, this is an impact scenario quite similar to the weather pattern in 2020.
"It is forecasted that natural disasters including heat waves, drought, hailstorms will occur more than usual in the first half of the year, and storms, floods, and inundations will occur more frequently, concentrated in the second half of the year. This is an impact scenario quite similar to the ENSO pattern in 2020," said Mr. Huong.
The ENSO phenomenon is an irregular cyclical change in wind and sea surface temperature in the tropical East Pacific region, directly affecting the climate and weather of tropical and subtropical countries, including Vietnam.
Mr. Nguyen Van Huong, Head of Weather Forecast Department, National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, commented on the situation of natural disasters and storms in 2024. Photo: General Department of Hydro-Meteorology
The warm phase of sea water temperature is called El Nino, the cold phase is called La Nina. Currently, the sea level temperature in the central Pacific Ocean is gradually decreasing and is at the same level as the long-term average (TBNN) (0.2 degrees Celsius higher than TBNN).
It is forecasted that the El Nino phenomenon is gradually weakening and turning into a neutral state. It is forecasted that there is a possibility of turning into La Nina state in the last months of 2024 with a probability of about 65-75% and may maintain this state until the first months of 2025.
The transition from El Nino to La Nina will cause droughts, floods, storms, and hail in our country this year to be similar to 2020 with characteristics such as: late rainy season, storms, and tropical depressions appearing in a short period of time.
The main period of heavy rain in the North is July-September 2024.
Specifically, the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (General Department of Hydrology) forecasts that there will be about 11-13 storms and tropical depressions (TPDs) in the East Sea and 5-7 will affect the mainland of our country. Storm and TPD activities are likely to be concentrated in the second half of the storm season (from September to November 2024).
Due to the impact of storms and tropical depressions, rainfall in the last 6 months of the year is forecast to be approximately equal to or higher than the average of many years. The period of heavy rain in the North is mainly from July to September, in the Central region from September to November. Localized heavy rain with high intensity from 50-100mm in 3-6 hours is likely to occur frequently in the coming time, to prevent landslides and flash floods in mountainous areas, and urban flooding. In particular, the La Nina scenario warning in the second half of 2024 may cause concentrated rains in the last months of 2024 in the Central region.
The flood season in the Central and Central Highlands river basins is forecast to be similar to the average of many years. The flood peak in 2024 in the downstream of Ma River (Thanh Hoa), Ca River (Nghe An, Ha Tinh) is at alert level 1-2; the downstream of the main rivers from Quang Binh to Quang Ngai, Binh Dinh, Khanh Hoa is at alert level 2-3, the rivers in Phu Yen, Ninh Thuan, Binh Thuan are above alert level 2 (the highest is alert level 3).
Source: https://danviet.vn/chuyen-gia-thoi-weather-du-bao-mua-mua-bao-nam-2024-se-cuc-duan-va-khoc-liet-cu-the-nhu-the-nao-2024062217022437.htm
Comment (0)