The 2026 Investment Outlook report recently published by Rong Viet Securities Joint Stock Company (Rong Viet Securities) used the image of 11.2 km/second – the "escape velocity" of the Earth – as a metaphor for the new market cycle. In physics, this is the minimum speed at which an object must overcome gravity, fly into space, and avoid being pulled back into its original orbit.
According to Rong Viet Securities, in investment terms, 11.2 km/second symbolizes the point when the market has sufficient internal momentum and growth "fuel," allowing it to break free from old inertia and enter a new cycle. "2026 is precisely that point, when external headwinds gradually subside and the domestic foundation is ready for a long-term acceleration phase of the market," Rong Viet Analysis Center stated.
Specifically, the report projects that the VN-Index could target a range of 1,712 to 2,032 points within the next 12–14 months. This scenario is based on the assumption that EPS (earnings per share) in 2026 will reach approximately 137–140 VND, representing a 15–19% year-on-year increase, along with a target P/E (price-to-earnings ratio) of 12.5–14.5 times.
The image illustrates that the VN-Index could reach 2,032 in the next 12-14 months at a speed of 11.2 km/s.
According to Rong Viet Securities, 2026 is considered the starting point of a new growth cycle, in which correctly positioning investment strategies from the outset will be crucial for long-term advantage. "The market is expected to shift from a 'high-value based on index' scenario to an 'attractive based on breadth' scenario, as earnings growth returns to its leading role. Simultaneously, the overall valuation level may be rebalanced, as the biases from large-cap stocks with very high P/E ratios are gradually adjusted to reflect their actual economic value," the report stated.
Rong Viet Securities also noted that the percentage of foreign investor ownership on the HoSE exchange is falling to its lowest level in three years, while the value of holdings remains high. This indicates a concentrated ownership structure, especially in the financial and banking sector. In this context, with the right catalysts, the elasticity of capital flows could be significantly improved.
Besides capital flows, the government is accelerating the process of transparency and developing transaction infrastructure, thereby strengthening the investment environment. The legal framework, expected to take effect from 2026, aims to standardize, enhance transparency, and improve the operational standards of the market.
The roadmap for deploying the CCP (central clearing counterparty) along with technical upgrades is considered the foundation for the "sprint" towards the goal of upgrading the market to FTSE standards, with operational reviews and verifications taking place in 2026.
The "headwinds"
Rong Viet Securities also pointed out the "headwinds" that investors may face in 2026, including geopolitical tensions, the level of uncertainty in policy implementation in the US, the possibility of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) delaying interest rate cuts, leading to pressure on exchange rates and domestic interest rates. In addition, the risk of correction in large-cap stocks with high P/E ratios but earnings growth not keeping up with expectations is also a factor that needs to be closely monitored.
Source: https://nld.com.vn/co-so-de-vn-index-co-the-len-2032-diem-196260105102507678.htm
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