VN-Index forecast to increase in short term, should investors buy?

The stock market experienced a volatile week when it surpassed its historical peak in 2022. The VN-Index reached its peak at 1,566 points at one point, but the market could not maintain its upward momentum due to profit-taking pressure at the mid-term resistance zone.

Regarding the developments next week, experts from Saigon - Hanoi Securities Company (SHS) forecast that VN-Index will maintain a short-term uptrend when it maintains the support zone around 1,480 points. The 1,500 point mark is currently an important psychological resistance, while the index will end its uptrend if it "breaks" the support level.

" VN-Index will end its uptrend if it fails to maintain the support zone around 1,480 points ," SHS emphasized.

In the VN30 group, the market is under pressure to retest the 2021 peak, which is in the range of 1,540 - 1,590 points. This is a strong resistance zone that needs to be closely monitored in the coming sessions.

According to SHS experts, August is a period of information vacuum. In assessing the market, businesses will base their assessment on updated business results and growth prospects for the end of the year, as well as the tariff rates that will begin to directly affect businesses after they are officially applied.

Therefore, SHS believes that stocks will be strongly differentiated and need time to find a new equilibrium after the price increase period from outstanding growth in second quarter business results, postponement and tariff negotiations.

The stock market is expected to remain bullish in the short term.

Meanwhile, analysts at Vietcombank Securities Company (VCBS) said the market is consolidating after a week of strong fluctuations. The positive point is that cash flow is still operating flexibly, despite the clear differentiation between industry groups. Some stocks with their own stories or positive second-quarter business results continue to attract cash flow. However, the large-cap group has not yet reached a consensus, so the risk of fluctuations is still present.

According to VCBS, investors should maintain a safe margin ratio, continue to hold stocks that show signs of recovery from the support zone, and consider increasing the proportion of these stocks during fluctuations. In addition, investors holding a lot of cash can follow speculative cash flows and disburse in part in stocks that are attracting attention from demand, and at the same time, there is still much room for growth compared to the nearest resistance zone.

The analysis team of Nhat Viet Securities Company (VFS) forecasts two scenarios for the market in August. In the more positive scenario, demand will improve positively, helping VN-Index overcome the current resistance zone and continue the uptrend. Investors can invest in stocks that show signs of continuing the trend or breaking out of the accumulation base, accompanied by large liquidity.

Meanwhile, the remaining scenario raises the issue that profit-taking pressure at high prices causes the market to return to fluctuating within the range of 1,450 - 1,550 points. With this scenario, short-term investors can apply the margin trading strategy, buying at the support zone and taking profits at the near resistance zone.

VFS also believes that the factors supporting the market in August continue to be present. Cash flow remains in the market and tends to rotate between industry groups, instead of being completely withdrawn after adjustment sessions.

Demand from the institutional sector remains stable, supporting individual investor sentiment during fluctuations. In addition, macro information on tariffs between the US and Vietnam, if resumed, will be an important lever to help the market recover.

Should investors sell or buy?

Giving advice to investors, Mr. Dang Tran Phuc, Chairman of the Board of Directors of AZfin Vietnam Joint Stock Company, said that at this time, investors should prepare money and focus on positive stocks with prospects for the end of the year to buy.

“ Investors should buy when the market drops dramatically. The groups of stocks that can be invested are: Industrial real estate stocks, because in reality, when the tariff policy is quite clear, it does not affect foreign investors.

Investors are wondering whether they should buy and wait for the wave?

The second group is the group that directly benefits from GDP growth, good business growth, and reduced bad debt, which is the bank.

These are two groups that are both well priced and attractive, so investors can refer to them ," Mr. Phuc advised.

Meanwhile, Mr. Phan Manh Ha, Sales Director of VnDirect, recommends not buying stocks just because of fear of missing out on opportunities, especially with stocks that have increased rapidly in the recent period.

Instead, investors should study the economic context in the next 6 months and be patient with the stocks with good fundamentals that they are holding. If they want to buy now, they can target good stocks that are still in the accumulation zone, with cash flow coming in to buy.

For investors who have made large profits thanks to the recent "local fever", they should take partial profits to regenerate purchasing power during market correction sessions.

According to Mr. Ha, for investors who still have cash at the present time, they should start as a new investment. In particular, investors need to pay attention to determining their risk appetite, thereby determining their trading strategy and tactics.

“Investors need to choose stocks and portfolios that suit their investment taste and risk tolerance. At the same time, they need to focus on the long-term trend of stocks, especially when the market has gone up strongly.

At the same time, it is possible to combine swing trading tactics (short-term trading) to optimize capital costs in small market fluctuations. This tactic involves the proportion of cash and stocks in each session and each period, not holding money to wait for the market to adjust, because it is very difficult to predict small adjustments in a large growth cycle," Mr. Ha advised.

Mr. Nguyen The Minh - Director of Analysis of Individual Clients of Yuanta Vietnam Securities Company - recommends that investors with high proportions should also consider selling and not bottom fishing at this time.

“ This is not the time for investors to buy the bottom, because the session on July 29 showed signs of a short-term reversal. Therefore, investors should prioritize selling to reduce the proportion to a balanced level of 40-50% of the portfolio to ensure risk safety. Especially when there is margin (financial leverage), it is necessary to eliminate it so as not to affect the investment, ” said Mr. Minh.

According to Mr. Minh, if you want to continue investing, you should choose bank stocks because the valuation of this group is still not too risky.

The next group is the food and foodstuff group. This group has been continuously increasing recently, although the growth rate is not too hot and the valuation is not high.