Robusta coffee prices have risen slightly, fluctuating around $5,000 per ton.

At the close of trading, Arabica coffee prices rose 0.69% to over $7,200 per ton, while Robusta coffee prices increased only 0.12% and fluctuated around $5,000 per ton.

According to the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), the global raw materials market experienced a tug-of-war ahead of the Christmas holiday (December 23). At closing, selling pressure prevailed, causing the MXV-Index to fall slightly by 0.12% to 2,190 points. Notably, all five energy commodities saw price declines, with WTI oil prices falling for the third consecutive session. Conversely, the industrial raw materials group showed positive signs, with six out of nine commodities increasing in price.

MXV-Index

WTI crude oil prices extended their decline for a third consecutive session.

At the close of trading on Monday, the energy market was in the red. Prices for both crude oil weakened, and trading was thin ahead of the Christmas holidays due to concerns about oversupply in 2025 and a strengthening US dollar.

At the close of trading, Brent crude oil prices fell 0.32% to $69.24 per barrel. Meanwhile, WTI crude oil prices fell 0.43% to $72.63 per barrel.

Energy price list

In their December report, analysts at Macquarie Bank predicted that the oil supply surplus would increase next year, potentially driving the average price of Brent crude from $79.64 per barrel this year to as low as $70.50 per barrel next year. Meanwhile, concerns about European supply have eased as the disruption to the flow of Russian oil to European countries via the Druzhba pipeline has been resolved and operations have resumed.

The drop in oil prices yesterday was also due to the US dollar recovering to around its highest level in two years. This makes oil more expensive for importing countries using other currencies, raising the risk of declining oil demand and adding further downward pressure on prices during the session.

Conversely, yesterday's decline in oil prices was somewhat mitigated by pressure tactics from US President-elect Donald Trump on Europe and the Panamanian government. Trump threatened to impose tariffs on the European Union (EU) if the EU did not increase its oil and gas imports from the US, thus raising market expectations for increased oil demand in the future.

Furthermore, in a social media post on December 21st, Mr. Trump opposed the high fees charged to US ships passing through the Panama Canal, suggesting that ownership of the canal should be returned to the United States. This move has raised concerns about instability on this vital oil shipping route. As of 2023, the amount of oil transported through the Panama Canal reached 2.1 million barrels per day, equivalent to 2% of the total global oil supply.

Coffee prices rose as Brazil forecasts a decrease in production for the 2025-2026 crop year.

According to MXV, at the end of the first trading session of the week, the industrial raw materials group recorded positive developments with most commodities increasing in price. In particular, coffee prices fluctuated on the market.

Specifically, Arabica coffee prices increased by 0.69% to over $7,200 per ton, while Robusta coffee prices rose only slightly by 0.12% and fluctuated around $5,000 per ton.

Industrial raw material price list

Analysts continue to forecast a less optimistic outlook for Brazil's coffee supply in the 2025-2026 crop year. According to Safas & Mercado, total Brazilian coffee production for the 2025-2026 crop year is projected at 62.45 million 60kg bags, a 5% decrease compared to the previous year. Of this, Arabica production is expected to reach only 38.25 million bags, a sharp 15% decrease, while Robusta production is projected at 24.10 million bags. Organizations such as Volcafe, Expana, and Hedegpoint have also lowered their forecasts for Brazilian coffee production in the 2025-2026 crop year, particularly for Arabica coffee.

Adverse weather conditions in Brazil's main Arabica coffee-growing region are further fueling supply concerns and supporting high prices. According to the Somar Meteorological Agency, rainfall in Minas Gerais, Brazil's largest Arabica-producing state, last week reached only 43.2 mm, 17% lower than the historical average.

However, the upward momentum in coffee prices yesterday was curbed by the rising USD/BRL exchange rate. The strengthening Dollar Index, coupled with the weakening Brazilian Real, pushed the USD/BRL exchange rate up by 1.78%. This exchange rate differential could boost exports from Brazilian producers.

The Brazilian coffee business continues its positive momentum thanks to high prices and stable international demand. Safras & Mercado reports that Brazilian coffee sales for the 2024-2025 crop year, as of December 11th, had reached 79% of projected production, exceeding 2023 figures by 10 percentage points and the five-year average by 6 percentage points. The Brazilian Coffee Exporters Association (CECAFE) noted record coffee exports of 46.4 million bags in the first 11 months of 2024, a 3.78% increase over the previous record in 2020 and a 32.2% increase compared to the same period in 2023.

In the domestic market, coffee prices in the Central Highlands and Southeast regions this morning (December 24th) were recorded at 120,500 - 121,300 VND/kg, unchanged from yesterday. However, compared to the same period last year, coffee prices have now doubled.

Prices of some other goods

Metal price list

Agricultural product price list

Source: https://congthuong.vn/thi-truong-hang-hoa-hom-nay-2412-gia-ca-phe-robusta-tang-nhe-dao-dong-quanh-moc-5000-usdtan-365856.html