World coffee prices suddenly increased, domestic prices increased by 1,000 VND/kg, global supply is "tense"

Arabica coffee prices have attracted buying interest from funds and speculators as ICE-managed inventories have not recorded any additions over the past several months. Inventories meeting the standards of the New York ICE exchange have dropped to a six-month low of 592,634 bags as of May 30. This information has contributed to supporting the increase in Arabica coffee prices.

World coffee prices unexpectedly increased sharply on both exchanges when the USDX index fell sharply, emerging currencies increased in value, supporting the purchasing power of goods in general. After the US government's debt ceiling agreement, US stocks increased significantly, pulling most commodity exchanges up.

However, the market is a bit hesitant about information about robusta coffee supply. Trade data from the Indonesian government shows that coffee exports, mainly robusta, in the first month of the current coffee crop (April 2023 to March 2024) have decreased by 46.7% compared to the same period last year, while the total output this year is expected to be around 10.3 million bags, contributing to the global robusta supply remaining tight in the coming months.

Vietnam's coffee exports from January to May also fell 2.2% year-on-year to 882,000 tonnes.

Meanwhile, it is worth noting that over the past 3 months, the Arabica coffee inventory managed and monitored by ICE has been decreasing every day without any recorded additions.

Giá cà phê hôm nay 21/3: sagdfaus. (Nguồn: YouTube)

Domestic coffee prices today, June 2, increased sharply by 1,000 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. (Source: YouTube)

At the end of the trading session on May 31 on the international floor, the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London floor decreased slightly. The price of robusta coffee futures for July 2023 delivery increased by 49 USD, trading at 2,605 USD/ton. The price of September delivery increased by 47 USD, trading at 2,567 USD/ton. Average trading volume.

Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange increased sharply. The July 2023 delivery period increased by 4.4 cents, trading at 183.05 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the September 2023 delivery period increased by 4.4 cents, to 180.25 cents/lb. Trading volume increased sharply.

Domestic coffee prices today, June 2, increased sharply by 1,000 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities.

Average price	Change
USD/VND exchange rate	23,295	+ 10
DAK LAK	61,700	+ 1000
LAM DONG	61,200	+ 1000
GIA LAI	61,500	+ 1000
DAK NONG	61,800	+ 1000

Unit: VND/kg.

(Source: Giacaphe.com)

Markets are focused on jobs data and then inflation ahead of the Fed meeting to decide on interest rates in mid-June.

According to technical analysis, technical indicators on the robusta floor are showing signs of continued downward momentum. It is expected that in the short term, robusta prices will fluctuate and accumulate within the range of 2530 - 2600. Robusta coffee prices need to surpass the psychological resistance of 2600 and maintain above this level to have a chance to recover.

On the contrary, the price range of 2495 - 2500 is the near support zone of robusta coffee. If robusta loses this price range, it can establish a downtrend.

Technical indicators on the Arabica exchange show that yesterday's price increase has temporarily interrupted the downward trend of Arabica coffee. However, technical indicators are showing that the downward momentum is still present.

In the short term, Arabica coffee prices are expected to fluctuate and accumulate within the range of 175 - 180. Arabica coffee needs to overcome the resistance level of 180 and close above this level to have a chance to recover. On the contrary, if the 174 - 175 area is lost, a downtrend may be established.

Source