On February 2nd, Bitcoin, considered "digital gold," briefly fell to $74,541/BTC, officially breaching the last line of defense of Strategy Inc. (formerly MicroStrategy). This wasn't just a number; it was a red line in the ambitious strategy of billionaire Michael Saylor.
The average purchase price of $76,037, a figure that Strategy Inc. had been building up for many years, has been broken. For the first time since 2023, Michael Saylor – Chairman and founder of Strategy Inc., and also a bitcoin "whale" – is experiencing a loss on paper.
Strategy currently holds over 712,000 BTC, but the value of this asset is rapidly evaporating (Image: CoinNews).
When the "ATM machine" stops working
Financial observers on Wall Street often liken Strategy Inc. to a "leveraged copy" of bitcoin. Michael Saylor's strategy over the years has been encapsulated in a seemingly simple but highly effective formula: Issue shares at a high price (with a premium) => use that money to buy bitcoin => asset value increases => stock continues to rise.
However, this money-printing machine is experiencing serious problems. According to data from Bloomberg and CoinDesk, Strategy's stock (MSTR) has plummeted nearly 70% from its peak. Even more worrying is that the spread between the stock price and net worth has disappeared.
Currently, Strategy's market capitalization is almost equal to the value of the bitcoins they hold. This transforms MSTR stock from a "growth bet" into nothing more than a price-tracking tool. When Bitcoin falls 1%, the stock falls accordingly. The magic of financial leverage is gone.
When the stock trades below its net asset value, Strategy's issuance of new shares to buy bitcoin (an ATM - at-the-market offering strategy) becomes counterproductive. It no longer creates added value but only dilutes the assets of existing shareholders. In other words, Saylor is losing its sharpest tool for "buying the dip" without borrowing.
Has smart money given up?
An interesting perspective on current financial consumer behavior reveals a clear shift in risk appetite. While keywords like "Strategy" or "bitcoin" previously generated massive waves of FOMO (fear of missing out), that excitement has now cooled.
According to analysis from Cryptopolitan, money is flowing strongly into more attractive new narratives: AI stocks, gold, and silver. Investors seem tired of the refrain "bitcoin is a hedge against inflation." The market reality in January poured cold water on this belief: inflation fluctuated, the USD weakened, but bitcoin remained unyielding, even falling nearly 11% in the past month.
The shattered price rally narrative has made Strategy's business model, which relies entirely on trust and expectation, more fragile than ever.
"Loss" but not "dead": Why hasn't Saylor panicked yet?
Although international news headlines this morning are all about Saylor's investment portfolio being in the red, a closer look at the financial report reveals that this shark is still in a fairly secure safe haven.
According to CoinDesk, Strategy Inc. currently holds approximately 712,647 BTC. Importantly, all of this bitcoin is unsecured. This means there are no margin calls hanging over Michael Saylor's head. He is not under pressure to sell off his bitcoin to pay off bank debts, even if the price falls further.
Furthermore, Strategy still has approximately $2.25 billion in cash in its coffers, an extremely thick liquidity cushion accumulated from previous stock offerings. The $8.2 billion convertible debt sounds daunting, but its earliest maturity date is not until Q3 2027. Saylor has ample time and flexible financial tools (such as debt restructuring or conversion into equity) to handle this issue.
Michael Saylor's current problem isn't "bankruptcy," but rather "slowing growth."
He's being held back. Unable to issue high-priced shares to buy more bitcoin, Strategy Inc. is forced to switch to a defensive mode. In 2022, when a similar situation occurred, the company only managed to buy a meager 10,000 bitcoins – a modest number compared to their ambitions.
Experts believe this is the most sensitive phase in the "Saylor experiment." If Bitcoin continues to trade sideways or decline slightly, MSTR shares could face even stronger selling pressure from impatient investors.
Source: https://dantri.com.vn/kinh-doanh/kho-712000-bitcoin-lo-nguoc-ca-voi-michael-saylor-toan-tinh-gi-20260202193623026.htm
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