This tactic shows that Russia has adapted to its limitations, thereby helping Moscow achieve new victories on the battlefield recently. Ukraine is struggling to cope with the threats posed by this new Russian tactic due to a lack of anti-aircraft missiles and meager aid from the West.
Military experts believe Ukraine could lose more territory and experienced forces. George Barros, head of geospatial intelligence and a Russia analyst at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), told Business Insider : "Russia's use of glide bombs really shows the level of danger the Russian military poses."
President Putin: Russia will not attack NATO but will shoot down F-16s.
Russia makes progress thanks to glide bombs.
Gliding bombs allow Russian forces to strike fortified positions from a greater distance than artillery without risking sending fighter jets into the range of Ukrainian air defenses. Weaknesses in accuracy are compensated by firepower, as these bombs can weigh up to 3 tons.
Their short flight times, small radar signatures, and non-ballistic trajectories make glide bombs very difficult to intercept. Ukraine has long warned that they could cause serious problems, and the events of the past few months have proven these concerns true.
Scene from an attack in Zaporizhzhia (Ukraine) on March 28, 2024.
In a report published last week, analysts at ISW stated that Russian forces have significantly increased their guided and unguided glide bomb attacks targeting rear and frontline positions in Ukraine since the beginning of 2024.
Russia's capture of the Ukrainian city of Avdiivka has demonstrated the effectiveness of this "glide bombing" tactic and marks the biggest advance in almost a year. Experts believe that rather than accuracy, the sheer number of glide bombing attacks will shake the morale of Ukrainian soldiers, thereby creating a lasting impact in the future.
According to Barros, Russia understands how to conduct attacks on Ukrainian cities and critical infrastructure to quickly deplete Ukraine's air defenses.
"When Ukraine's air defenses are limited, Russia will use fixed-wing aircraft to carry out glide bomb attacks. If Ukraine has a better air defense system, they can prevent the enemy from using glide bombs by forcing the aircraft further away from the front line," Barros added.
Russia used glide bombs to destroy all of Ukraine's fortifications.
In the event that Ukraine's air defense capabilities continue to deteriorate, worse-case scenarios may need to be considered where the Russian air force could operate in Ukrainian airspace without any hindrance, Barros said.
Ukraine could lose more territory.
Russian aircraft have dropped more than 3,500 bombs on Ukrainian positions over the past nearly three months, Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister, Lieutenant General Ivan Gavrylyuk, wrote in an editorial on March 18 for the Ukrinform news agency. He said this number is much higher than the previous year.
Russia has found an effective tactic and is rapidly ramping up production of glide bombs. Last week, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that production of several types of munitions is increasing, including the FAB-500 (500 kg), FAB-1500 (1.4 tons), and FAB-3000 (3 tons) bombs – all believed to have been modified and transformed into glide bombs.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called for military aid from partners on March 20, 2024.
According to Justin Bronk, an air force expert at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI-UK), many of Russia's glide bombs are being dropped from distances of up to 50 km or more behind front lines, making it difficult for Ukraine to attack these aircraft with its existing air defense systems, other than the US-made MIM-104 Patriot system.
Glide bombs are typically used to target fixed positions, meaning they are particularly effective in areas where prolonged fighting has taken place. For example, in Avdiivka, where Ukrainian positions are relatively easy to detect.
"That makes planning attacks with glide bombs on fixed targets feasible. They contain more explosives than artillery shells or missiles, especially the 1.5-ton bombs," Bronk explained. Therefore, these bombs have a greater psychological impact than artillery.
Russia says Ukraine suffered significant losses of HIMARS and Patriot missile systems.
To mitigate the threat from glide bombs, Ukraine needs to significantly increase its air defense interceptor aircraft and artillery. However, President Volodymyr Zelensky has frequently stated that Ukraine's current air defense arsenal is insufficient to protect the country from concentrated attacks, and has called on partners to increase aid.
The U.S. is still delaying additional aid packages to Ukraine, leaving Kyiv increasingly short of essential military equipment, including air defense capabilities and ammunition. Last week, the White House stressed that providing Ukraine with more air defense equipment was "critically important."
The power of Russian glide bombs, coupled with Ukraine's significantly depleted artillery, dwindling arsenal, and bleak prospects for aid packages from the US and the West, are all factors driving the war in Kyiv's favor. "Without US approval for additional aid, it will be very difficult for Ukraine to avoid the risk of losing more territory, especially if Russia is likely to launch a major offensive this summer," Bronk said.
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