The rice industry faces a "double" challenge.

Farmers in the Mekong Delta provinces and cities are currently harvesting their 2025-2026 winter-spring rice crop. With a planted area of ​​approximately 1.49 million hectares and favorable weather conditions, the estimated yield is over 11.5 million tons. However, profits are not as high as expected, due to low rice prices resulting from difficulties in rice exports.

Costs are rising, but rice prices are falling.

Ms. Le Thi Cam Giang, from Vinh Trinh commune, Can Tho city, cultivates over 2 hectares of rice using the OM 18 variety. Thanks to VietGAP farming methods, reduced seed usage, reduced pesticide spraying, reduced water usage, and favorable weather conditions, the yield reached over 1 ton per hectare. After harvesting, she immediately sold the rice to traders at 6,000 VND/kg. After deducting expenses, her profit was approximately 3 million VND per hectare, significantly lower than previous winter-spring seasons.

Mr. Nguyen Van Dung from Luong Tam commune, Can Tho city, said: "Normally, traders would come to inquire about buying red-tailed rice and pay a deposit in advance, but this year it's the opposite; traders only finalize the price with farmers close to the harvest date. Meanwhile, the cost of renting combine harvesters has increased, so the profit from my 1 hectare of winter-spring rice is not much."

Farmers in Can Tho City have had a bumper winter-spring rice harvest, but the selling price is low. Photo: HOAI THANH

Meanwhile, many individual farmers and those renting land report low profits this season. Ms. Lam Thi Chin from Dong Thuan commune, Can Tho city, confided: “There is no cooperative in this area, so farmers cannot cooperate for large-scale production, which increases investment costs. Currently, rice prices fluctuate between 5,800 and 6,200 VND/kg, plus land rental costs of over 5 million VND/hectare/year, meaning this season we only break even.”

Pointing to the straight rows of rice fields in Thoai Son commune ( An Giang province), Mr. Nguyen Van Lam shared: “This season, households producing under the ‘large-scale field’ model, participating in the Sustainable Development Project of one million hectares of high-quality, low-emission rice cultivation associated with green growth in the Mekong Delta by 2030, are guaranteed a profit of 3-4 million VND per hectare, thanks to the application of green farming processes and reduced emissions… In addition, they also receive additional support from businesses when selling their rice, thanks to output linkages. This is considered a sustainable rice farming model, helping farmers ensure profits, even in conditions of fluctuating rice prices. However, small-scale producers do not achieve high profits.”

Rice exports have been affected.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment , in February 2026, domestic businesses exported approximately 640,000 tons of rice, worth US$289.4 million; cumulatively, in the first two months of 2026, the country exported about 1.3 million tons of rice, worth about US$599.3 million, an increase of 5% in volume but a decrease of more than 11% in value compared to the same period in 2025. This is due to the decrease in world rice prices. While in January and February 2026, Vietnamese businesses exported rice at an average price of about US$464/ton, a decrease of more than 15% compared to the same period, currently 5% broken rice is being offered at only about US$355-360/ton. Transactions tend to slow down as international buyers anticipate a further decline in rice prices, while the Mekong Delta provinces are in the midst of harvesting their winter-spring crop, leading to a significant increase in supply.

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) forecasts for the global rice market in 2025-2026 indicate abundant supply, with record production and comfortable stock levels. Prices are also expected to fluctuate, with fragrant rice varieties trending upwards by 1.8%, while glutinous rice varieties are projected to decline by 1.8% due to weak demand…

The Vietnam Food Association (VFA) noted that India (which accounts for over 40% of global rice trade) is being affected by tensions in the Middle East, causing the price of 5% broken rice to trade at around US$349/ton, a decrease of US$58/ton compared to the same period last year. Meanwhile, the export price of 5% broken rice from Thailand, Pakistan, etc., has also decreased compared to the same period last year.

In light of the aforementioned difficulties, the Department of Domestic Market Management and Development (Ministry of Industry and Trade) held a meeting with several associations and businesses in various sectors regarding the export of goods amidst the complex developments in the Middle East. Mr. Nguyen Van Nghiem, General Secretary of the Vietnam Food Association (VFA), stated that the Mekong Delta provinces are currently entering the winter-spring rice harvest season, while the escalating conflict in the Middle East has led to high oil prices, impacting transportation costs and the operation of rice harvesting machinery, thus driving down rice prices. Currently, some shipping companies transporting rice to the Middle East have increased freight rates from approximately US$1,000 per container to US$3,000-4,000 per container.

To achieve the export target of approximately 7.73 million tons of rice in 2026, the Vietnam Food Association (VFA) recommends that the State provide urgent credit packages (with interest rates of around 5-6%) to purchase rice for temporary storage. The Ministry of Industry and Trade should implement solutions to ensure the supply of diesel fuel for harvesting and transporting rice. The VFA also urges domestic businesses to closely monitor the global situation and market demand. They must understand which rice products are preferred by each market to meet quality and food safety standards. Strengthening the production of fragrant and premium rice products is crucial for maintaining market share and increasing value in the increasingly fierce global rice export competition.

HOAI THANH - TRAN KIEU

Source: https://baocantho.com.vn/nganh-lua-gao-doi-mat-voi-kho-khan-kep--a200779.html