To ensure smooth economic activity and attract investment, large, stable and continuously operating electricity supplies are needed.
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| Steel production at Hoa Phat Group. Photo: Duc Thanh |
Electricity is the basic foundation
At the meeting between the Prime Minister and foreign investors a few days ago, continuous and stable electricity supply was mentioned by many foreign business associations as one of the key conditions to maintain electricity supply. production and investment attraction.
Mr. Joseph Uddo, Chairman of the American Chamber of Commerce (AmCham) in Hanoi, warned that many of Vietnam's goals will be difficult to achieve without a stable and affordable power source.
The power outage in the North in mid-2023 was also recalled by Japanese businesses, because it was impossible to make production plans and forecast delivery dates. This causes the Just in Time model - the core of the supply chain - to be greatly impacted. Some Japanese businesses are even considering and reviewing their global production system.
Sharing reality in Korea, Mr. Hong Sun, Chairman of the Korean Business Association in Vietnam, said that when the Korean Ministry of Industry and Trade planned industrial development, they planned electricity development first. Without electricity there is no industry. Steel production, semiconductor production, screens, batteries... - all use electricity, so Korea needs to ensure a huge power source.
Statistics published from many sources show that in 2022, Korea will consume 567 billion kWh of electricity. Thus, with a population of 51,7 million people, Korea has an average electricity consumption of 11.000 kWh/person/year.
During the same period, Vietnam consumed 242 billion kWh. If calculated per capita, it is only 2.420 kWh/year.
However, in the past, Vietnam's ability to ensure a stable, continuous, and safe electricity supply has become one of the prerequisites for attracting a large number of investors, in which there is no shortage of participation. of Korean businesses.
Specifically, by the end of 2013, total investment capital from Korea into Vietnam only reached about 23 billion USD. But in the next 10 years, by the end of 2023, Korea's total investment capital in Vietnam has reached 85 billion USD. Most Korean investors in Vietnam recently are operating in the fields of industrial production with big names such as Samsung, LG, Hyundai, Hyosung.
In the current period, according to Mr. Hong Sun, for Korean businesses wishing to invest in Vietnam, especially high-tech businesses such as semiconductors, Vietnam's electricity shortage phenomenon is one of the factors. This causes them to hesitate in making investment decisions.
This fact once again shows the urgency of electricity being one step ahead in economic development.
A large power source is still waiting
To ensure the operation of the system, it will be necessary to have power sources with stable, continuous operating hours such as large hydropower, offshore wind power, coal power, gas power or nuclear power.
According to Vietnam's actual situation as well as emissions commitments, now only offshore wind and gas power sources, including domestically exploited gas and imported LNG, can take charge. this case.
To ensure the operation of the system, it will be necessary to have power sources with stable, continuous operating hours such as large hydropower, offshore wind power, coal power, gas power or nuclear power.
However, according to recent calculations by the Ministry of Industry and Trade, it will take 7-10 years to complete the LNG gas power project.
Specifically, the time to complete and approve the feasibility report and necessary legal documents for the LNG gas power project takes 2-3 years. Then it takes 2-4 years to negotiate the power purchase agreement (PPA) and arrange loans, depending on the capacity, experience and finances of the investor. The time to build and put into operation a plant with a capacity of about 1.500 MW is 3,5 years.
However, in reality, even though it has been selected as an investor to develop a power project, if the investor cannot sign a PPA with Vietnam Electricity Group (EVN), the source of the loan to implement the project will be limited. Electricity (even though negotiations have been completed) still cannot be officially poured in and disbursed.
Currently, in addition to the Nhon Trach 3&4 LNG Gas Power Project, which is completing more than 80% of the work, but has not yet signed an official PPA, other imported LNG gas power projects, even though investors have been selected, are all The finish time is unclear.
Even the chains of domestically exploited gas-fired power projects such as Block B and Ca Voi Xanh, although it is clear that when implemented, will bring efficiency and contribute to the budget, but they have not been able to move quickly in the past 10 years. Although the Ministry of Industry and Trade has proposed and assigned relevant ministries to develop a financial mechanism for EVN, Vietnam National Oil and Gas Group (PVN) in synchronously deploying a chain of gas and electricity projects, without creating pressure on prices. electricity and burden for EVN, but it is unknown when it will be done.
In offshore wind power projects, the situation is even more difficult, as the legal processes and ability to implement these projects are still unclear. Not to mention, an offshore wind power project takes about 7 years to deploy.
In addition, to be able to implement the transmission network development plan as expected in Electricity Planning VIII, socialized capital sources are highly expected. However, although the amended Electricity Law takes effect from March 1, 3, with the main emphasis on socializing investment in transmission, in the past 2022 years there has been no decree or implementation guidance. to be promulgated. In addition, no private sector has registered to do transmission work like during the previous solar power boom.
Facing the fact that too many projects are behind schedule or facing "forests" of procedures, causing projects to start and finish in the last 7-8 years without knowing when, Mr. Thai Phung Ne, former Minister The Ministry of Energy once said that "the spirit of Son La and Lai Chau must be brought into the implementation of power projects".
Accordingly, more than ever, the Government needs to clearly demonstrate its role as a "conductor" in devising urgent and appropriate policies to diversify investment forms and attract many different capital sources to Developing key areas, including electricity industry infrastructure, with the goal of ensuring sufficient electricity supply for production and daily life, meeting socio-economic development requirements. If it is late and not drastic, the price to pay will be unpredictable shocks, not only in economic development, but also in society.
