The risk of a major trade war between the US and China.

The actions of the US, as well as the reaction from China, have led to an unpredictable increase in the risk of a trade war between the two sides.

Yesterday (March 5), the Global Times reported that at the ongoing Two Sessions meeting, China set a GDP growth target of 5% in 2025, despite the US administration under President Donald Trump repeatedly imposing tariffs of 10% on imported goods from China twice, each time.

Beijing's message

This move by China is seen as demonstrating the confidence of its government despite the escalating trade war with the US.

Furthermore, in a press conference on March 4th, responding to The New York Times , Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian expressed a tough stance regarding the US's additional tariff increases on China.

Specifically, the Chinese spokesperson emphasized: "Anyone who uses maximum pressure against China has chosen the wrong person and miscalculated. If the U.S. truly wants to resolve the fentanyl issue, then the right thing to do is to consult with China on the basis of equality, mutual respect, and mutual benefit to address each other's concerns. If the U.S. is plotting a different agenda and if war is what the U.S. wants, whether it's a tariff war, a trade war, or any other kind of war, we are ready to fight to the end."

The US-China trade war has the potential to escalate rapidly.

Regarding this issue, in an interview with Thanh Nien newspaper on March 5th, Professor Stephen Robert Nagy (International Christian University - Japan, scholar at the Institute for International Studies in Japan) analyzed: "In less than two months since taking office, President Trump has increased tariffs on Chinese goods twice. There are many questions about the nature and ultimate purpose of the tariff measures and whether they will harm American families. It seems that Trump's direct advisors support the tariff measures, while many economists and business leaders are less inclined to support tariffs on China, let alone friends like Canada and Mexico."

"It's possible President Trump views tariffs as a path to a major trade deal with China, but many questions remain unanswered about his stance. Is it a strategy, or is he exploiting America's greatest advantage – its consumer market – to force China to accept Washington's demands?" Dr. Nagy assessed.

In fact, increasing import tariffs while the US has yet to shift its supply chains domestically is causing prices to rise, negatively impacting the US economy. Bloomberg reported on March 5th that John Williams, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, predicted that tariff measures would lead to increased inflation.

The trade war erupted when Trump officially imposed tariffs on Canada, China, and Mexico.

Is there no end to this?

Also responding to Thanh Nien , Dr. Satoru Nagao (Hudson Institute, USA) assessed: "The Trump administration has imposed many types of tariffs on many countries. But there are two types of tariffs! Tariffs on China and tariffs on other countries. For example, initially, the White House announced increased tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China for the same reason and at the same time. Then, the White House postponed the tariffs on Canada and Mexico in February, because the US was negotiating with Canada and Mexico. This means that the tariffs on Canada and Mexico were a negotiating tool. However, the Trump administration increased tariffs on China even though the US had postponed increasing tariffs on Canada and Mexico."

In March, the U.S. resumed tariffs on Canada and Mexico, but further increased tariffs on China once again. Indeed, in the case of China, a similar situation occurred multiple times during Trump's presidency from 2016 to 2020. The perspective from this process is that tariffs on China and tariffs on other countries are different. Tariffs on China are non-negotiable, while tariffs on other countries are a negotiating tool.

"What is the real reason for this difference? Indeed, it is possible that tariffs on China are a competitive tool. Because financial resources are helping China assert its current assertiveness. When China has enough money, it can rapidly modernize its military. China's wealth also allows it to invest large sums of money in other countries to expand its influence. Therefore, if the US-China trade war can hurt Beijing's resources, then for the US, it is the right way to deal with China," Dr. Nagao further commented.

He stated: "The current 20% tariff is just the beginning. It is highly likely that the US under President Trump will further increase tariffs on Chinese goods."

American business group moves toward controlling Panama Canal

Reuters reported yesterday that CK Hutchison Group (headquartered in Hong Kong) has agreed to sell a majority stake in its Panamanian port operator to a group of investment firms led by the US fund management company BlackRock. The deal will give BlackRock's group control of 90% of the Panama Ports Company, which operates the Balboa and Cristobal ports located at opposite ends of the Panama Canal. The acquisition of CK Hutchison's majority port operating licenses, in a deal estimated at nearly $23 billion, gives the group control of a total of 43 ports in 23 countries.

This move is seen as a victory for US President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly emphasized his goal of giving the US control of the Panama Canal, which plays a strategic role in trade and geopolitics . In a speech to the US Congress on March 4, Trump affirmed his intention to reclaim the Panama Canal, and also mentioned information that a US company had announced it would buy ports around the canal.

Bao Hoang

The ship was sailing near Balboa port, Panama on March 4th.

Source: https://thanhnien.vn/nguy-co-dai-thuong-chien-my-trung-18525030523043434.htm