Risk of US 'great trade war'

The US's move as well as China's response make the risk of a trade war between the two sides face an unpredictable increase.

Yesterday (March 5), the Global Times reported that at the ongoing Two Sessions Conference, China set a target of achieving GDP growth of 5% in 2025, despite the US administration under President Donald Trump's two consecutive measures to increase tariffs on imported goods from China, each time by 10%.

Beijing's message

China's move is considered to demonstrate the confidence of its government despite the US escalating trade war.

Not only that, responding to The New York Times at a press conference on March 4, spokesman Lin Jian of the Chinese Foreign Ministry expressed a tough stance against the US's additional increase in tariffs on China.

Specifically, the Chinese spokesperson emphasized: "Anyone who uses maximum pressure on China is picking the wrong person and miscalculating. If the US really wants to solve the fentanyl issue, the right thing to do is to consult with China on the basis of equality, mutual respect and mutual benefit to address each other's concerns. If the US plots a different agenda and if war is what the US wants, be it a tariff war, a trade war or any other kind of war, we are ready to fight to the end."

- Ảnh 1. — US-China trade war likely to escalate rapidly

Regarding this issue, responding to Thanh Nien on March 5, Professor Stephen Robert Nagy (International Christian University - Japan, scholar at the Japan Institute of International Affairs) analyzed: "In less than 2 months since taking office, President Trump has increased tariffs on Chinese goods twice. There are many questions about the nature, ultimate purpose of the tariffs and whether they will harm American families. It seems that Mr. Trump's direct advisors support the tariffs, while many economists and business leaders are less inclined to support tariffs on China, let alone friends like Canada and Mexico."

"It is possible that President Trump sees tariffs as a path to a major trade deal with China, but there are still many unanswered questions about his stance. Is it a strategy, or is it exploiting America's greatest advantage - the consumer market - to make China accept Washington's demands?" Dr. Nagy assessed.

In fact, increasing import tariffs while the US has not been able to shift its supply chain domestically is causing prices of goods in the country to increase, causing negative impacts on the US economy. Bloomberg on March 5 quoted President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (USA) John Williams predicting that tariff measures will cause inflation to increase.

Trade war breaks out as Trump officially imposes tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico

No ending yet?

Also responding to Thanh Nien , Dr. Satoru Nagao (Hudson Institute, USA) commented: "The Trump administration has imposed many types of tariffs on many countries. But there are two types of tariffs! Tariffs on China and tariffs on other countries. For example, the White House initially announced increasing tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China for the same reason and at the same time. Then, the White House postponed imposing tariffs on Canada and Mexico in February, because the US was negotiating with Canada and Mexico. This means that tariffs on Canada and Mexico are negotiating tools. However, the Trump administration increased tariffs on China even though the US postponed increasing tariffs on Canada and Mexico.

In March, the US resumed tariffs on Canada and Mexico, but the US increased tariffs on China again. Indeed, in the case of China, the same situation happened many times when Trump was president from 2016 to 2020. From this perspective, tariffs on China and tariffs on other countries are different. Tariffs on China are not negotiable, and tariffs on other countries are a negotiating tool.

"What is the real reason for this difference? Indeed, it is possible that tariffs on China are a competitive tool. Because financial resources are helping China assert its current assertiveness. When China has enough money, China can quickly modernize its military. China's wealth also allows them to invest large sums of money in countries to expand their influence. Therefore, if the US-China trade war can hurt Beijing's resources, then for the US, it is the right way to deal with China," Dr. Nagao added.

"The current 20% total tax rate is just the beginning. It is likely that the US under President Trump will increase tariffs on Chinese goods," he said.

US business group moves to control Panama Canal

Reuters reported yesterday that Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison has agreed to sell a majority stake in its Panama port operator to a consortium led by US investment firm BlackRock. The deal will give BlackRock a 90% stake in the Panama Port Authority, which operates the Balboa and Cristobal ports at the two ends of the Panama Canal. The acquisition of most of CK Hutchison's port licenses, in a deal estimated to be worth nearly $23 billion, will give the group control of a total of 43 ports in 23 countries.

The move is seen as a victory for US President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly stressed his goal of giving the US control of the Panama Canal, which plays a strategic role in trade and geopolitics. In his speech to the US Congress on March 4, Mr. Trump affirmed that he would reclaim the Panama Canal, while mentioning the information that an American company announced the purchase of ports around the canal.

Bao Hoang