Oscars 2026 - unpredictable until the last minute.

At this point, the race for the 2026 Oscars continues to shift and become more unpredictable than ever, with the chances of winning evenly distributed among the nominees.

Best movie: The Two-Horse Race

This year, among the 10 nominees in the most important category - Best Picture, two names are attracting attention from film experts: One Battle After Another and Sinners. Sinners has 16 nominations, while One Battle After Another has 13 nominations.

Currently, Sinners has received over 440 nominations at various film awards, winning 223 times. The film has won several important awards, including Best Original Screenplay at the BAFTA (British Academy Film Awards), four awards at the 2026 Critics' Choice Awards, and two awards at the Golden Globes…

One Battle After Another (above) and Sinners are currently the two strongest contenders for Best Picture at the 2026 Oscars.

Winning awards for best cast at the SAG Awards (Screen Actors Guild Awards) and for Best Original Screenplay at the WGA Awards (Writers Guild Awards) is compelling evidence of its quality. Furthermore, both the National Board of Review and the American Film Institute have included the film in their lists of the top 10 films of 2025.

However, Sinners' position is being challenged as its direct competitor, One Battle After Another, has won almost every award necessary to be considered the absolute leading contender. Historically, no film has ever won at the Critics' Choice Awards, Golden Globes, BAFTA, DGA (Directors Guild of America Awards), PGA (Producers Guild of America Awards), WGA, and at least one SAG Award, yet failed to win Best Picture at the Oscars.

The individual race is not over yet.

Normally, before an awards ceremony, when nominees in individual categories, especially acting, have already won previous awards, things tend to go smoothly with few surprises. But at the 2026 Oscars, three out of four acting categories saw constant changes, with nominees frequently fluctuating in the prediction rankings each time a new award was announced.

Specifically, in the Best Actor category, Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) is currently one of the two leading contenders, having already been nominated for two major awards: the Critics' Choice Awards and the Golden Globes. However, Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) also boasts an equally impressive track record, having won both the SAG Awards for the film's cast and the Best Actor award for himself. The race between these two stars is becoming increasingly close and unpredictable.

In the Best Supporting Actor/Actress categories, the chances are also evenly distributed among the nominees. Specifically, Amy Madigan's (Weapons) wins at the SAG and Critics' Choice Awards show a strong wave of support emerging for her in the film industry. Therefore, it is highly likely that the star of Weapons will come out on top to win this competition.

However, the film Weapons itself is at a disadvantage as it has not received any additional Oscar nominations this year. Teyana Taylor (for One Battle After Another) has a chance in this category, having previously won at the Golden Globes. In the Best Supporting Actor category, veteran actor Sean Penn (for One Battle After Another) has an advantage, having already been nominated at the SAG and BAFTA awards. His biggest rival is the renowned star Stellan Skarsgård (for Sentimental Value), who previously won at the Golden Globes.

In the acting categories, only Jessie Buckley (for the film Hamnet) – who had already swept most of the previous awards, including SAG, BAFTA, Critics' Choice, and Golden Globes – was almost certain to win the Best Actress Oscar. Another important individual category – Best Director – was almost a sure win for Paul Thomas Anderson (for the film One Battle After Another), with his impressive track record at the BAFTA, Critics' Choice, and Golden Globes.

The 2026 Academy Awards will take place on March 15th (local time) at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood, Los Angeles, USA. The event will be broadcast live from 5:30 PM on March 16th on VTV3. Comedian Conan O'Brien will continue to host the ceremony.

HAI DUY

Source: https://www.sggp.org.vn/oscar-2026-kho-doan-den-phut-chot-post842455.html