Will it reverse course and surge again?

Coffee prices in the domestic market are forecast to rebound on June 14, 2024. According to Vietnam Customs, coffee exports in May fell sharply by 47.80% compared to the previous month, reaching 1,322,633 bags. This figure is lower than the previously estimated 1.58 million bags.

This reflects low domestic supply. Sellers are cautious ahead of the upcoming harvest, believing that yields will be significantly reduced.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development , Vietnam's coffee production for the 2024/25 crop year could decrease by up to 20%, to 1.47 million tons, the lowest level in the last four years (in 2023, Vietnam exported 1.61 million tons of coffee).

In recent years, the price of this agricultural product has been quite low, so many farmers tend to switch to other crops with higher economic value. This move has led to a continuous decrease in the area planted with coffee and could cause a long-term supply shortage.

However, domestic coffee prices today saw a slight decrease, ranging from 120,000 to 121,200 VND/kg. Currently, the average purchase price in the Central Highlands provinces is 121,100 VND/kg, with the highest purchase price in Dak Nong province at 121,200 VND/kg.

Specifically, the purchase price of coffee in Gia Lai province (Chu Prong) is 121,000 VND/kg, while in Pleiku and La Grai it is 120,900 VND/kg. In Kon Tum province, the price is 121,000 VND/kg; in Dak Nong province, coffee is purchased at the highest price of 121,200 VND/kg.

In Lam Dong province, in districts such as Bao Loc, Di Linh, and Lam Ha, the price of bulk green coffee beans (green coffee beans, fresh coffee beans) is 120,000 VND/kg.

Today's coffee prices (June 13th) in Dak Lak province are as follows: in Cu M'gar district, coffee is being purchased at approximately 121,000 VND/kg, while in Ea H'leo district and Buon Ho town, it is being purchased at the same rate of 120,900 VND/kg.

Contrary to the downward trend in domestic coffee prices, online coffee prices today on three exchanges in London, New York, and Brazil rose sharply.

London Robusta coffee prices (Image: Screenshot from giacaphe.com)

Specifically, the price of Robusta coffee futures contracts for July 2024 delivery on the London exchange was $4,260 per ton, up $20 from the start of trading. The September 2024 contract was $4,110 per ton, up $24; the November 2024 contract was $3,943 per ton, up $25; and the January 2025 contract was $3,757 per ton, up $23.

New York Arabica coffee prices (Image: Screenshot from giacaphe.com)

Similarly, Arabica coffee prices on the New York exchange today, at 8:30 PM on June 13, 2024, increased across all contract periods, fluctuating between 221.90 and 224.80 cents/lb.

Specifically, the July 2024 delivery contract was 224.80 cents/lb, up 0.45 cents/lb from the start of the session. The September 2024 contract was 221.10 cents/lb, up 0.25 cents/lb; the December 2024 contract was 223.70 cents/lb, up 0.10 cents/lb; and the March 2025 contract was 221.90 cents/lb, down 0.45 cents/lb.

Brazilian Arabica coffee prices (Image: Screenshot from giacaphe.com)

Brazilian Arabica coffee prices at 8:30 PM on June 13, 2024 showed an increase across all contract periods, ranging from $281.30 to $270.00 per ton.

Specifically, the July 2024 delivery contract was $281.30, up $5.05. The September 2024 delivery contract was $277.10/ton, up $1.35 from the start of trading; the December 2024 delivery contract was $271.50/ton, up $3.15; and the March 2025 delivery contract was $270.00/ton, up $4.05.

Robusta coffee traded on the ICE Futures Europe exchange (London exchange) opens at 4:00 PM and closes at 12:30 AM (the next day), Vietnam time.

Arabica coffee on the ICE Futures US (New York exchange) opens at 4:15 PM and closes at 1:30 AM (the next day), Vietnam time.

For Arabica coffee traded on the B3 Brazil exchange, trading hours will be from 19:00 to 02:35 (the next day), Vietnam time.

Vietnam's Customs agency reported that Vietnam's coffee exports in May fell by 47.80% compared to the previous month, to 1,322,633 bags. This figure is lower than the 1.58 million bags initially estimated by Vietnam Customs for exports in the month.

Vietnam's lower export performance in May reflects tighter domestic market conditions in the country, as sellers are cautious ahead of the upcoming harvest, believing this year's (2024/2025) crop will suffer a significant drop.

Weather conditions in Vietnam continue to be monitored due to below-average rainfall throughout May. Seasonal rainfall is expected to increase soon and continue through October, which would be a welcome sign for coffee producers and market participants alike.

Forecasts for the current coffee year are average, with Vietnam's Robusta coffee production for the 2023/2024 crop year expected to reach approximately 27.50 million bags.

Market observers note that the potential for inventory carryover to the 2024/2025 crop will be limited. The development of Vietnam's coffee crop is being closely monitored by all market participants, with an estimated average yield of 27.15 million bags for the 2024/2025 crop. However, growers' assessments seem to differ significantly, with them predicting lower yields compared to the previous season.

Despite concerns about future production in Vietnam and the fact that Brazil's new crop is yet to be on the market, global coffee flows continue to accelerate. According to ICO data, global shipments increased by 11% between October 2023 and April 2024, compared to the same period last year. Arabica coffee exports increased by 12.8%, while Robusta coffee exports increased by 8.7%, reaching 48.34 and 32.65 million bags respectively.

Shipping volumes from South America, primarily from Brazil and Colombia, increased significantly during the first half of the 23/24 business season.

Source: https://congthuong.vn/du-bao-gia-ca-phe-ngay-1462024-quay-dau-tang-manh-tro-lai-326031.html