Gasoline prices continue to rise
According to the direction of the Ministry of Industry and Trade - Finance, on the afternoon of March 28.3, the price of RON 95-III gasoline (a popular type on the market) increased by 530 VND, to 24.810 VND per liter; E5 RON 92 adds 410 VND, up to 23.620 VND per liter. However, oil products (except fuel) decreased, of which diesel oil was 21.690 VND per liter (down 320/liter); Kerosene has a new price of 20.870 VND (down 390 VND/liter).
From January 4.1 to now, gasoline prices have increased 8 times and decreased 5 times. As for diesel oil, there were 7 increases and 6 decreases. In total, each liter of RON 95-III is 2.900 VND more expensive, while oil is 1.330 VND more expensive than at the beginning of the year.
Although gasoline prices have increased continuously, however, in recent adjustments, the executive agency, the Ministry of Industry, Trade and Finance, has not used the gasoline price stabilization fund, except for fuel oil, which is set aside at 300 VND. /kg at the recent adjustment.
While information from the Ministry of Finance released on March 26.3 - said that as of the last quarter of 2023, the balance on the Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund is about more than 6.655 billion VND; Compared to 2022, the fund balance is about 2.000 billion VND higher.
Talking to Labor, Mr. Nguyen Xuan Thang - Director of Hai Au Phat Petroleum Company - said that to control the increase in gasoline prices, we cannot rely on the gasoline price stabilization fund. Because not deducting the stabilization fund is in accordance with the provisions of Circular 103/2021 of the Ministry of Finance on the expenditure level of the Petroleum Stabilization Fund.
Accordingly, the Petroleum Stabilization Fund can only be used by the inter-ministries when the difference between the base price of the announced period and the base price of the previous period immediately preceding the operating period increases by 7% or more. Therefore, although gasoline prices have increased continuously in recent operating periods, the base price increase of most gasoline products is below 7%, so it is not possible to deduct the Stabilization Fund to control gasoline prices.
To restrain the increase in gasoline prices, Mr. Thang said that a comprehensive solution and the participation of both State management and the current petroleum system are needed. In particular, key enterprises increase imports, ensuring sufficient sources of petroleum when import costs and wholesale costs have been calculated correctly.
Petroleum retail enterprises and petroleum distributors are responsible for the continuous and appropriate circulation of petroleum in the country, avoiding hoarding and causing an imbalance in petroleum resources. Consumers are not confused and have the psychology of hoarding gasoline, causing local scarcity, leading to an increase in gasoline prices.
Scenarios for the petroleum market in 2024
Talking to Lao Dong, Mr. Nguyen Ngoc Quynh - Deputy General Director of Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV) - said that there are many factors affecting oil price developments in 2024. Among them, the main tension is OPEC+'s policies and output cuts could push up oil prices, but slowing economic growth and less consumption could cause prices to stagnate or go down.
In the first scenario, if demand growth is weak, OPEC+ will maintain a low output policy or even cut further to support oil prices. The second scenario - the worst scenario, if tensions expand, it will seriously disrupt the supply of petroleum, and the possibility of oil prices exceeding 100 USD/barrel is entirely possible.
“As a petroleum importing country, the domestic gasoline price trend in 2024 will closely follow world price fluctuations. In 2024, domestic gasoline prices inched up slightly at the beginning of the year, when the impact of OPEC+ production cuts and tensions around the Red Sea region affected global prices.
But overall in 2024, supply and demand will be relatively balanced, oil prices will continue to be stable and may be equivalent to the average level of the past 2023. Furthermore, in 2024 there will be less chance of domestic gasoline prices skyrocketing abnormally like in 2022" - Mr. Quynh said.
As for domestic factors, according to Mr. Quynh, the issuance of Decree 80/2023/ND-CP amending and supplementing a number of articles of Decree 95/2021/ND-CP and Decree 83/2014/ND- CP on gasoline and oil trading, which shortens the gasoline price management time from 10 days to 7 days, will help domestic gasoline prices approach the world market price.
In addition, the Government has also approved the National Petroleum and Gas Storage and Supply Infrastructure Plan for the period 2021-2030, with a vision to 2050. In the long term, this is an effective solution to Helps stabilize supply and demand and domestic gasoline prices.
