The devastating escalation

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps' attack on Israel with missiles and drones marks the first time Iran has launched a direct military attack on Israeli territory. Since the Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1979, both Israel and Iran have considered each other arch-rivals, but the two countries have only engaged in proxy wars and have never directly clashed.

In a statement posted on social media site X, Iran's Permanent Mission to the United Nations asserted that the attack was a direct response to the attack on the Iranian consulate in Syria on April 1st. Almost simultaneously with this Iranian attack, Hezbollah militants in Lebanon launched dozens of rockets at an Israeli military site in the Golan Heights. Houthi forces in Yemen also participated in rocket attacks on Israeli territory.

The attack on the morning of April 14th (Vietnam time) can be considered a "declaration of war" by Iran against the US and Israel. Immediately after the attack, on page X, Iran warned: "This is a conflict between Iran and the rogue regime of Israel, which the US MUST STAY AWAY from!"

Prior to April 1st, observers still hoped that a direct war between Iran and its allies and Israel and the US would not occur because Iran was not militarily well-prepared for such a war, as it was still subject to Western sanctions.

Furthermore, there was significant internal opposition to the Iranian government, evidenced by the massive protest movement in 2022. However, recent retaliatory actions between Iran and Israel have altered those predictions. Iran's actions have pushed the Middle East even closer to the brink of an unwanted, widespread war. This is truly a nightmare that the US, Arab nations, and even Hezbollah have been trying to avoid for some time now.

Israel's war in the Gaza Strip has drawn widespread opposition from many countries around the world . Even the United States – Israel's long-standing and important ally – has expressed displeasure, especially given Israel's isolation due to accusations of violating international humanitarian law against the Palestinian people in Gaza. However, Israel has its own calculations. Internal pressure is preventing Netanyahu from stopping. Furthermore, this presents a good opportunity for Israel to use as a pretext to permanently eliminate the nuclear threat from Iran, a long-standing concern for both Israel and the US.

In a speech to the Israeli people on April 13, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said: “We have established a clear principle: Whoever harms us, we will harm them. We will defend ourselves against any threat and will act calmly and resolutely.”

Therefore, many are concerned that these initial retaliations could ignite a full-scale war between Iran and Israel. This would be a nightmarish scenario, causing serious damage to both sides and potentially drawing the US and UK into the conflict. The US has repeatedly stated its intention to withdraw US forces from the Middle East and relocate them to the Indo-Pacific and Europe. Israel is aware of this move and feels compelled to act quickly while maintaining a strong US military presence. Thus, the attack on the morning of April 14th marks a new beginning.

The Middle East, already difficult to control since Hamas's surprise attack on Israel, will only get worse on every front. And the world needs to be “extremely vigilant about the real danger of a devastating escalation across the region”—as UN Secretary-General António Guterres put it.

MSc. HOANG VIET

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