The allure of consumer stocks soon to be listed on the HOSE: A safe haven or an opportunity for breakthrough growth?

Amidst the volatile and deeply polarized Vietnamese stock market, smart money seeks "safe havens" that offer both protection against inflation risks through regular cash dividends and long-term growth potential.

Out of sync cash flow and gaps in the consumer sector.

The VN-Index structure is currently skewed, with capital flows heavily concentrated in two key sectors: Banking and Real Estate.

Conversely, the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector – the "backbone" reflecting the demand of 100 million people and potentially immune to recession – lacks worthy representatives on the HOSE exchange. Foreign investors and ETFs often struggle to find stocks that represent the story of Vietnam's consumer growth because existing stocks are either saturated or too small in size.

MCH management answers shareholders' questions.

With a GDP per capita approaching $5,000 per year, Vietnam is entering a phase of changing consumer behavior from "eating enough and dressing warmly" to "eating well and dressing beautifully." This pattern has already occurred in China, where, upon reaching a similar income level, the proportion of luxury goods skyrocketed from under 50% to 80%. Vietnam is following the same trajectory thanks to the booming middle class and the new generation of consumers (Gen Z, Millennials).

Amidst the uncertainties of the global economy and high interest rates, consumer preferences are shifting towards companies with solid foundations, high profit margins, and the ability to consistently pay cash dividends, rather than those that "burn money" to gain market share.

Defend with cash flow, attack with growth.

The listing of MCH ( Masan Consumer) shares on the HOSE is expected to trigger a wave of revaluation across the entire consumer goods industry.

MCH is considered a "safe haven" due to its exceptional cash flow generation capabilities. Compared to other companies in the Southeast Asian market with a market capitalization exceeding $1 billion, only MCH meets all three criteria: double-digit revenue growth, a net profit margin exceeding 20%, and diversified consumer goods operations.

MCH is considered a "safe haven" due to its superior cash flow generation capabilities.

Specifically, MCH's gross profit margin remains stable at 45-46%, with a net profit of 23%. The fixed asset turnover ratio is 4 times – for every 1 unit invested in assets, 4 units of revenue are generated. Thanks to this, MCH maintains an attractive cash dividend policy, paying nearly $1.5 billion between 2018 and 2024. At the Roadshow on December 4th, Deputy General Director Pham Dinh Toai committed to maintaining a cash dividend policy of 50-80% of par value (equivalent to 5,000-8,000 VND/share) for at least the next 10-15 years. This is a superior return compared to savings interest rates, creating a solid defense for the stock against market fluctuations. This partly explains why Chairman Nguyen Dang Quang likened MCH to Masan's "precious diamond."

Not only is it a "defensive" stock, MCH is also a typical "offensive" stock with new growth drivers, ready to move to the larger HOSE market.

During the period 2017-2024, revenue grew at an average rate of 13% per year (double GDP growth). Notably, during the period 2022-2024, the compound annual growth rate of after-tax profit reached 20%. This breakthrough is driven by three key pillars: innovation and premiumization; the "Go global" strategy; and the "Retail Supreme" direct distribution model.

While the success rate of new products in the FMCG industry in Asia is only 5%, MCH has reached 20%. New products directly contributed 20% of total revenue during the 2017-2024 period. The premiumization strategy, transforming instant noodles into high-value meals or fish sauce into a luxury condiment, has significantly increased profit margins.

The "Go Global" strategy is not just about exporting raw materials, but also about exporting brands. The goal is that by 2028-2030, the international market will contribute 10-15% of revenue with an operating profit margin of nearly 30%. "Getting products into Costco and negotiating with Walmart are concrete steps to realize this ambition," said Danny Le, CEO of Masan Group.

Transitioning to the Retail Supreme model and applying AI and Big Data to optimize inventory and increase sales at each point of sale are crucial steps in Masan's journey to modernize consumer behavior.

The boost from the HOSE listing transfer.

The listing on the HOSE will be a catalyst for the market to activate and unlock the true value of MCH shares. According to Vietcap, MCH will enter the Top 7 in market capitalization immediately upon listing. This will unlock three major capital flows: Margin trading for individual investors; capital from large ETFs (VNM ETF, FTSE) if MCH is included in the index; and billions of USD in foreign capital anticipating the upgrade.

The transfer to the HOSE will be a catalyst for the market to activate and unlock the true value of MCH shares.

According to CEO Danny Le, once the transfer to the HOSE is complete, it will provide better liquidity for existing investors. At the same time, through quarterly reports meeting higher standards, MCH will have easier access to international capital flows.

With its strategy of "defending with cash flow, attacking with growth," MCH's transfer to the HOSE exchange is not just a financial event, but the beginning of a new growth cycle.

On the UPCoM exchange, since the announcement of the listing transfer, MCH shares have continuously increased in price and daily liquidity. At the close of trading on December 15th, MCH shares were trading around 211,000 VND/share, having increased by nearly 50% in just one year.

MCH stock price performance from the beginning of 2025 to the present.

Source: Vietstock

Box: Masan Consumer is a subsidiary of Masan Group (HOSE: MSN), one of Vietnam's leading consumer and retail businesses. After being approved for listing by the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange (HOSE), Masan Consumer announced that its MCH shares are expected to have their first trading session on HOSE on December 25, 2025. According to the roadmap, delisting MCH shares from UPCoM is a necessary technical step to complete the listing process. Masan Consumer shares will have their last trading session on UPCoM on December 17, 2025, before officially transferring to the HOSE.

Source: https://thoibaonganhang.vn/suc-hut-co-phieu-tieu-dung-sap-len-hose-noi-tru-an-an-toan-hay-co-hoi-tang-truong-dot-pha-175354.html