Thailand lowers its forecast for international tourist arrivals in 2024.

The Tourism Authority of Thailand aims to welcome 35 million international tourists in 2024, but experts in the country believe that only 32 million will be achieved.

The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) announced on November 28th that it will continue to promote the country as one of the world's most popular tourist destinations and aims to welcome 8.2 million Chinese tourists out of a total of 35 million international visitors in 2024.

Experts believe TAT will face significant challenges in achieving this ambitious goal as the global economy faces a recession next year.

Kasem Prunratanamala, Head of Research at CGS-CIMB Securities, a Thai consulting firm, is skeptical about the feasibility of the government's tourism target. Kasem still forecasts 27 million tourists this year but has lowered his 2024 forecast from 36 million to 32 million.

Kasem pointed out that Thailand's tourism promotion programs have not met expectations. The visa-free policy for Chinese tourists from September 25 to February 29, 2024, aimed at stimulating demand during the peak season, has not attracted many visitors. In October, Thailand received an average of about 9,500 Chinese tourists per day, which is only 31% of the 30,100 per day in 2019. In 2023, approximately 3 million Chinese tourists visited Thailand, while the target set by the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) this year is 4 million.

Kasem also suggested that, coupled with the shooting at the Siam Paragon shopping mall in early October, it would be difficult for Thailand to see a significant increase in Chinese tourists in the fourth quarter.

Tourists visit the Royal Palace in Bangkok, Thailand. Photo: Reuters — Tourists visit the Royal Palace in Bangkok, Thailand. Photo: *Reuters*

TAT explained that the low number of Chinese tourists is due to the Beijing government's focus on stimulating domestic tourism. Instead of choosing international flights, Chinese people have shifted their support to domestic tourism. "The number of flights from China is still 40% lower than before the pandemic, but this is not the main reason for the slow recovery of the Chinese tourist market," Kasem added.

The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) aims to welcome 25-30 million international visitors this year and 35 million in 2024, representing an 87% recovery compared to 2019. For domestic tourism, TAT anticipates 160 million trips this year and 200 million next year. Total revenue from domestic and international tourism is projected to increase from US$66 billion this year to US$85 billion in 2024, matching the 2019 figures when Thailand welcomed nearly 40 million international visitors.

(By Anh Minh , according to Bangkok Post )

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