The stock market is projected to rebound.

Following the sharp decline in March, the stock market entered April with a cautious sentiment, but opportunities for accumulation gradually emerged as many risks were already reflected in prices.

Overarching adjustment pressure

Rong Viet Securities Joint Stock Company (VDSC) has just released its April strategic report on the stock market, revealing a mixed picture of risks and opportunities.

The Vietnamese stock market in March 2026 faced strong downward pressure as external risk factors unexpectedly increased, particularly the Middle East conflict leading to concerns about energy security, import inflation pressure, and the risk of short-term liquidity tightening. As of March 31, 2026, the VN-Index had decreased by 10.9% compared to the previous month. Market movements were generally defensive for most of the month, before recording a slight recovery in the final week, indicating that bargain-hunting buying was not strong enough to completely reverse the cautious sentiment.

Notably, despite the sharp decline in the index, liquidity did not weaken proportionally but remained almost unchanged compared to February, with the average trading value of the VN-Index reaching 27,193 billion VND per session. This development reflects that capital has not withdrawn from the market aggressively, but has mainly shifted to short-term trading, rotating and selecting opportunities as the risk discount for stocks increases.

Most stock groups recorded declines in March, indicating widespread correction pressure including utilities (-21.0%), software technology (-19.3%), and media and entertainment (-18.3%). Conversely, insurance (+1.7%) and automotive and parts (+0.5%) maintained positive performance. Real estate was the biggest contributor to the market's 10.9% month-on-month decline (-3.8%), followed by banking (-2.9%) and utilities (-1.0%).

The Vietnamese stock market entered April cautiously, but opportunities for long-term accumulation are gradually emerging. (Illustrative image)

In terms of cash flow, domestic institutional investors and domestic capital continue to play a supporting role in the market, but trading strategies still lean towards portfolio rotation and selective disbursement rather than opening large net positions.

Regarding the macroeconomic context, March saw several notable factors directly impacting market expectations. Domestically, energy prices fluctuated sharply and increased significantly compared to the beginning of the year, exacerbating the challenges in macroeconomic management, particularly in balancing inflation targets, exchange rate stability, and growth support. The 2nd Central Committee meeting continued to emphasize the pursuit of double-digit growth, but with the requirement for sustainable development. Simultaneously, the State Bank of Vietnam directed efforts to stabilize interest rates and ensure transparency in lending, signaling a priority on stabilizing financial conditions amidst increasing external pressure.

Nevertheless, liquidity remained high, averaging 27,193 billion VND per session, indicating that money has not withdrawn from the market but is instead circulating and selecting opportunities.

Long-term opportunities are gradually emerging.

According to VDSC, after a volatile March with several deep corrections, the Vietnamese stock market entered April cautiously, but opportunities for long-term accumulation are gradually emerging. As risk factors such as geopolitical tensions and interest rate pressures have been partially reflected in prices, investors are beginning to expect a recovery based on a stable macroeconomic foundation.

Entering April, VDSC believes the market has largely reflected the scenario of slowing growth and persistently high interest rates, while geopolitical shocks in the Middle East are approaching a "critical point" regarding the limits of action by all parties involved. Major stock indices have only seen moderate corrections, the USD continues to strengthen, and bond yields have risen across the board as the market narrows expectations of monetary easing. In the short term, the outlook for Q1 2026 earnings remains positive.

VDSC believes that in the medium term, the VN-Index still has room to fluctuate within the 1,584 - 2,042 point range, corresponding to a volatility of -5.4% to +21.9% compared to the end of March. In other words, the market is not yet ready for a rapid recovery, but if there are enough "east winds" from easing geopolitical tensions, stabilizing energy and the effectiveness of domestic policies, a rapid rebound in the market remains feasible.

From a macroeconomic perspective, several positive signals are supporting the market. The second meeting of the 14th Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam set a target of achieving an average GDP growth rate of 10% or higher for the period 2026-2030. The State Bank of Vietnam issued Circular 2342 to stabilize interest rates and increase transparency. The PMI index for March reached 54.3 points, reflecting an improvement in production and orders.

VDSC believes April is a crucial period as geopolitical factors gradually approach the correction threshold. The market is thought to have largely reflected the negative scenario. Regarding sectors, notable areas include banking, retail and consumer goods, real estate, and oil and gas transportation.

In the short term, VDSC recommends that investors prioritize capital preservation and avoid chasing stocks that temporarily benefit from energy price fluctuations. However, in the long term, the current corrections are seen as opportunities to accumulate leading stocks with strong financial foundations, as valuations have become attractive.

Source: https://congthuong.vn/thi-truong-chung-khoan-du-bao-tang-tro-lai-450626.html