However, the market has seen distribution sessions and may also be a sign of a re-accumulation period. Cash flow will determine the market's performance, not the score, so portfolio management is the top priority for this period.
The rally paused, but still had a week of gains
Global stock markets continued to post a broad-based weekly gain. Major US indexes also hit new highs after the July consumer price index (CPI) report showed a weaker-than-expected increase. All three major indexes closed the week with gains. The Dow Jones was the standout performer, with a weekly gain of 1.74%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose 0.94% and 0.81%, respectively.
Many Asian stock markets also maintained their upward momentum. Accordingly, except for the Hong Kong market, which fell, other markets such as Japan, China, India, etc. all recovered positively or maintained their upward momentum during the week.
The Vietnamese stock market also had a week of sustained growth. The VN-Index, despite breaking its 9-session winning streak, still had a strong week. Closing the week at 1,630 points, up +45 points, equivalent to an increase of +2.8% compared to the previous week. Thus, the VN-Index marked its 8th week of growth in the past 9 weeks.
On the Hanoi Stock Exchange, the two main indices also had positive developments. The HNX-Index increased by +9.88 points for the week, closing the week at 282.34 points, equivalent to an increase of +3.63% compared to the previous week. Meanwhile, the UPCoM-Index increased by +1.07 points to close at 109.61 points.
Statistics from MBS show that on the HOSE floor, the biggest increase was mainly in the Midcap stock group (+4.2%), while the Bluechips (VN30) and Smallcap stocks also increased by +3.2% and +0.9% respectively.
Some groups of stocks that increased sharply in the market last week were: Insurance (+13.8%), securities (+7.1%), banking (+5.5%)... On the contrary, the group of stocks that went against the market included: Viettel (-3.3%), technology (-3.1%), chemicals (-2.3%)...
Market liquidity remained high. Total market liquidity last week reached VND58,000 billion, up +3.2% compared to the previous week, of which matched liquidity also increased +7.9% to VND55,567 billion. Average matched liquidity during the week increased +69% compared to the average of 20 sessions.
Accumulated from the beginning of the year, the average liquidity of the whole market reached VND 27,776 billion, an increase of +32% compared to the average level in 2024, and an increase of +20% over the same period.
Foreign investors maintained net selling of -8,475 billion VND - this is the fourth consecutive week of net selling of this group. Thus, after the net buying week in July, foreign investors net sold nearly -23,300 billion VND in the first half of August. Accumulated from the beginning of the year in the whole market, foreign investors net sold -58,300 billion VND.
Last week, foreign investors net bought CMG (+189 billion VND), VIX (+187 billion VND), VJC (+168 billion VND), KDH (+135 billion VND)...; while net sellingFPT (-2,254 billion VND), HPG (-1,542 billion VND), MBB (-613 billion VND), SSI (-597 billion VND)...
In terms of valuation, the market's P/E (ttm) is currently at nearly 15x, higher than the 3-year average (13.3x). Emerging markets are currently trading at a P/E (ttm) of 16.5x, higher than the 3-year average (14.8x).
Signs of distribution have appeared.
The stock market in general continues to show very strong growth. The VN-Index alone is up nearly 29% compared to the beginning of the year and continuously setting new peaks. It is worth noting that the time to reach a new peak is also gradually narrowing, especially the 1600 point mark was surpassed quite easily.
Not only the scores, the market shows the strong cash flow from domestic investors. If in July, the increase was partly supported by foreign cash flow, then this August, foreign investors returned to net selling quite a lot and domestic investors not only "balanced everything" but also increased. According to statistics, liquidity from the beginning of August increased by +202% compared to the same period and +42% compared to July, reaching 56,200 billion VND. This is a very large number and also rare in the market in terms of cash flow. The cash flow itself is also a strong catalyst for the market's increase in the past week and recent weeks.
However, a noteworthy point in the market last week was the appearance of signs of distribution. Accordingly, the market had a "green skin, red heart" session before the decline at the end of the week. In these two sessions alone, although the index fluctuated slightly (increasing and then decreasing by more than 10 points), the stock price level decreased more sharply. Many groups of stocks decreased in the last two sessions of the week, even though the general index did not fluctuate much and liquidity remained at a very high level.
That means, at this stage, the index may not fully reflect the reality of the market. Therefore, in terms of investment strategy, the portfolio of each investor is the most important. Because in the context of the distribution market to move to the re-accumulation stage, there will be a situation of "little decrease in points, but large decrease in stock prices". Portfolio management at this time requires higher and stricter discipline. Technically, the support zone for the market is in the area of 1,566-1,588 points, while new peaks are in the area of 1,668-1,690 points.
Source: https://nhandan.vn/thi-truong-chung-khoan-tuan-moi-phan-phoi-hay-tai-tich-luy-danh-muc-la-quan-trong-post901576.html
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