Continuing its upward trend, is the price approaching 120,000 VND/kg?

Coffee price forecast for August 23, 2024: The upward trend continues in the domestic market. Concerns about the impact of climate change on production in leading coffee-producing countries, including Vietnam, have contributed to the increase in domestic coffee prices.

According to preliminary data from the General Department of Customs, in the first 15 days of August 2024, Vietnam exported 36,903 tons of coffee, earning $195.34 million, a decrease of 7.5% in volume but an increase of 67.4% in value compared to the same period last year.

At the end of the first 10 months of the 2023-2024 crop year (from October last year to July this year), Vietnam's coffee exports reached over 1.3 million tons, equivalent to 90% of the current crop year's production and a decrease of 12.4% compared to the same period of the previous crop year.

According to forecasts, Vietnam is likely to transition to a La Nina state with a probability of 60-70% from September to October. It is expected that from November 2024 to January 2025, the La Nina state will persist at a probability of 70-80%.

This situation could cause heavy rains in the North and erratic weather conditions in the Central region. This is unfavorable for farmers, especially during the harvest season from October to November, raising concerns about the supply of coffee from Vietnam.

Domestic coffee prices, updated at 4:30 AM on August 22, 2024, are as follows: The domestic coffee market today continues to rise compared to the same time yesterday, with an increase of 1,100 – 1,200 VND/kg. Currently, the average purchase price in the Central Highlands provinces is 119,000 VND/kg, with the highest purchase price in Dak Nong province at 119,300 VND/kg.

Specifically, the purchase price of coffee in Gia Lai province (Chu Prong) is 119,200 VND/kg, in Pleiku and La Grai it is 119,100 VND/kg. In Kon Tum province the price is 119,200 VND/kg; in Dak Nong province, coffee is purchased at the highest price of 119,300 VND/kg.

In Lam Dong province, in districts such as Bao Loc, Di Linh, and Lam Ha, the price of bulk green coffee beans (green coffee beans, fresh coffee beans) is 118,500 VND/kg.

Today's coffee prices (August 22nd) in Dak Lak province are as follows: in Cu M'gar district, coffee is being purchased at approximately 119,200 VND/kg, while in Ea H'leo district and Buon Ho town, it is being purchased at the same rate of 119,100 VND/kg.

According to the latest update on world coffee prices at 8:30 PM on August 22, 2024 (Vietnam time) on the London exchange, the price of Robusta coffee futures contract for September 2024 delivery on the London exchange was 4,872 USD/ton, down 82 USD compared to the beginning of the trading session.

Coffee prices today, August 22, 2024: Robusta coffee prices on the London exchange. (Image: Screenshot from giacaphe.com)

The November 2024 delivery price was $4,555/ton, down $77; the January 2025 delivery price was $4,360/ton, down $80; and the March 2025 delivery price was $4,198/ton, down $81.

Coffee prices today, August 22, 2024: New York Arabica coffee prices (Image: Screenshot from giacaphe.com)

Specifically, the price of Arabica coffee on the New York exchange today, at 8:30 PM on August 22, 2024, decreased across all contract periods, fluctuating between 236.55 and 242.10 cents/lb.

Specifically, the December 2024 contract was 242.10 cents/lb, down 7.15 cents/lb from the start of the session. The March 2025 contract was 240.45 cents/lb, down 6.60 cents/lb; the May 2025 contract was 238.60 cents/lb, down 6.35 cents/lb; and the July 2025 contract was 236.55 cents/lb, down 6.05 cents/lb.

Coffee prices today, August 22, 2024: Brazilian Arabica coffee prices. (Image: Screenshot from giacaphe.com)

Brazilian Arabica coffee prices today, at 8:30 PM on August 22, 2024, showed mixed movements. Specifically, the September 2024 delivery contract was $296.10/ton, down 2.76%; the December 2024 contract was $296.20/ton, down 2.39%; the March 2025 contract was $294.60/ton, down 2.87%; and the May 2025 contract was $299.80/ton, up 0.57%.

Robusta coffee traded on the ICE Futures Europe exchange (London exchange) opens at 4:00 PM and closes at 12:30 AM (the next day), Vietnam time.

Arabica coffee on the ICE Futures US (New York exchange) opens at 4:15 PM and closes at 1:30 AM (the next day), Vietnam time.

In the first few months of 2024, coffee imports by many major markets such as the EU, the US, Canada, Japan, and China all increased due to rising demand and high prices.

According to Eurostat, EU coffee imports from non-EU markets in the first five months of 2024 reached €4.93 billion (equivalent to US$5.36 billion), a 35.3% increase compared to the same period last year. Meanwhile, EU imports of this agricultural product from Vietnam recorded a high increase of 71.5%, reaching over €1 billion (equivalent to US$1.1 billion).

Vietnam's market share of coffee in the EU's total import value from non-EU markets increased sharply, from 16.1% in the first five months of 2023 to 20.35% in the first five months of 2024.

According to statistics from the US International Trade Commission, in the first five months of 2024, the US imported $3.41 billion worth of coffee, a 4.2% increase compared to the same period last year. Of this, coffee imported from Vietnam was valued at $226 million, a 31.1% increase compared to the same period last year.

Vietnam's market share of coffee in the total US import value reached 6.62% in the first five months of 2024, higher than the 5.26% share in the first five months of 2023.

*This information is for reference only. Prices may vary depending on the time and location.

Source: https://congthuong.vn/du-bao-gia-ca-phe-2382024-tiep-da-tang-tien-gan-sat-moc-120000-dongkg-340835.html