The VN-Index could fall to the 1,200-point level due to various pressures.

VN-Index continues to trade in the red; Dividend payment schedule; Investors should pay attention to the 1,200-point level...

VN-Index fell 24 points.

The market ended the week in the red, with selling pressure dominating, particularly on VN30 stocks. The VN-Index fell to 1,230 points, a total drop of 24 points over 5 trading sessions, with the index falling by more than 15 points on the final trading day alone.

Liquidity was weak, with a total trading volume of 12,900 billion VND across all three exchanges: HOSE, HNX, and UPCoM. HOSE recorded 11,235 billion VND with 338 declining stocks (4 hitting the floor price), 78 rising stocks (4 hitting the ceiling price), and 40 unchanged stocks.

The VN30 basket saw 27 out of 30 stocks experience sharp declines. Additionally, HAP (Hapaco, HOSE) reversed course and hit the floor limit, while YEG (Yeah1, HOSE) continued its downward trend. Many mid- and large-cap stocks such as TCH (Hoang Huy Finance, HOSE), PDR (Phat Dat Real Estate, HOSE), VIX (VIX Securities, HOSE), DXG (Dat Xanh Real Estate, HOSE),... fell by over 3%.

Sellers dominated, causing the VN-Index to plunge into the red (Photo: SSI iBoard)

Notably, NVL ( Novaland , HOSE) fell sharply by 3.2%, breaking the 10,000 VND/share mark and setting a historical low with a trading volume of 8.7 million units.

Regarding foreign investor transactions, net buying appeared at the beginning of the week but quickly turned into strong selling, with foreign investors selling a cumulative total of VND 1,314 billion across the market over the past five sessions.

Experts assess that Vietnamese stocks are experiencing a lackluster trading week as investor caution intensifies, coupled with liquidity falling to its lowest level in over a year in several sessions, causing the main index to break below the short-term low of 1,240 points.

Dabaco is expected to lead in business results for the fourth quarter of 2024 and the entire year of 2024.

According to an analysis report fromFPT Securities (FPTS), Dabaco (DBC, HOSE) is projected to be the "champion" in profit growth in Q4 2024. Specifically, DBC's after-tax profit is projected to increase by 3,557% (equivalent to 36 times). For the whole year 2024, Dabaco could record 766 billion VND in after-tax profit, a growth of 2,964% compared to the same period last year.

Regarding several promising sectors, FPTS believes that, within the banking sector, VPBank (VPB, HOSE) will be the "star" in terms of pre-tax profit growth for Q4 2024, with a 77% increase, reaching VND 4,800 billion. Following closely behind is MBBank ( MBB, HOSE), also achieving impressive results, with potential profit growth of 32% in Q4 2024.

For the whole year of 2024, VPBank and MBBank's pre-tax profits are projected to increase by 73% and 10% respectively.

For the Retail sector, Mobile World Group (MWG, HOSE) is projected to achieve a 1,566% increase in after-tax profit in Q4 2024, and this figure could even rise to over 2,500% for the entire year 2024.

For the oil and gas sector, FPTS forecasts that profit growth will be differentiated. Companies with positive growth include PV DRILLING (PVD, HOSE), Petrolimex (PLX, HOSE), and PV TRANS (PVT, HOSE), with slight increases below 10%. Meanwhile, profits of many other oil and gas companies are expected to decline, such as Vietnam Oil and Gas Services (PVS, HNX) and PV GAS (GAS, HOSE).

Potential industries of the new era

In its strategic report titled "New Era," SSI Research assesses that the reforms being implemented starting from the end of 2024, including streamlining the government apparatus, a determination to accelerate public investment in infrastructure, and addressing outstanding issues in the real estate sector, if successful, will be three domestic factors that could help boost growth in 2025.

The policy environment is likely to remain favorable for the real estate sector as interest rates are not expected to rise too much from current levels, credit growth will be boosted, and public investment in infrastructure projects will be encouraged, supporting property price increases.

Based on the above analysis, SSI Research expects strong performance in the construction, building materials, residential real estate, and information technology sectors this year. The retail sector remains a priority choice for 2025, with expectations of gradual recovery and long-term growth in domestic consumption.

At the same time, SSI Research expects the VN-Index to reach 1,450 points by the end of 2025.

SSI Research lists the following stocks with positive prospects for 2025: HPG (Hoa Phat Steel, HOSE), MWG (Mobile World Group, HOSE), FPT (FPT, HOSE), DPR (Dong Phu Rubber, HOSE), CTD (Cotecoons, HOSE), NT2 (Nhon Trach 2 Oil, HOSE), CTG (VietinBank, HOSE), TCB (Techcombank, HOSE), ACV (Vietnam Airlines, HOSE), and KDH (Khang Dien House, HOSE).

Assessment and recommendations

According to Mr. Pham Duy Hieu, investment consultant at Mirae Asset Securities , the VN-Index closed the week down 24.11 points (-1.92%), at 1,230.48. The market reflects the cautious sentiment of investors amidst continuous market declines and renewed net selling by foreign investors due to the strengthening US dollar.

Nevertheless, the market remains within a safe range of 1,200 - 1,300 points, opening up attractive opportunities for investors with a medium- and long-term investment mindset.

For the time being, a solid macroeconomic foundation will remain the basis for the stock market's upward trend, despite short-term setbacks.

The VN-Index is under short-term pressure around the 1,200-point level.

Specifically, GDP growth in Q4 2024 reached 7.55%, the highest rate of the year, confirming a clear recovery of the economy; Credit growth reached 15.08%, exceeding the State Bank of Vietnam's target, showing increased demand for loans and boosting economic turnover; FDI inflows surged: December 2024 recorded strong growth in FDI, especially in the flow of capital into industrial real estate.

However, the market faced several pressures, such as exchange rate pressure due to the appreciation of the US dollar, coupled with pressure for the depreciation of the Vietnamese dong, leading to a continued strong net outflow of foreign capital in December.

Therefore, in the short term, investors are advised to observe the market around the 1,200-point level, as this presents an opportunity to increase their stock holdings at discounted prices. Priority should be given to stocks with strong fundamentals, promising growth stories from within the company, and attractive valuations. Examples include state-owned banks with high credit growth and good bad debt control: CTG (VietinBank, HOSE), BID (BIDV, HOSE); and industrial real estate: benefiting from the FDI wave, focusing on stocks like SIP (Saigon VRG, HOSE), BCM (Industrial Investment and Development, HOSE), and IDC (IDICO, HNX).

BSC Securities recommends that, in the upcoming trading sessions, the index is likely to continue falling to the support zone of 1,210 - 1,220 points or even further to 1,200 - 1,205 points.

Phu Hung Securities assesses that, technically, the index is signaling a potential decline to the support zone of 1,200 - 1,220 points, which is also the target price range of the small double-top pattern. The company expects the index to bottom out again within this zone. The general strategy for investors is to maintain an average portfolio weighting and observe signals at the support zone to consider re-entering when positive developments occur.

Dividend payment schedule this week

According to statistics, eight companies will finalize dividend entitlements between January 13th and 17th, 2025. Of these, four will pay in cash, one in shares, two will issue additional shares, and one will award bonus shares this week.

The highest percentage is 150%, the lowest is 4%.

One company pays in shares:

Lam Son Sugar Corporation (LSS, HOSE) , ex-dividend date January 14th, dividend rate 7%.

Two companies issued additional shares:

Yeah1 Group Joint Stock Company (YEG, HOSE) , The ex-dividend date is January 17th, with a dividend yield of 40%.

DIC Holdings Construction Joint Stock Company - DIC Cons (DC4, HOSE) , ex-dividend date January 14th, ratio 50%.

One company awarded shares as a bonus:

Viet Tri Chemical Joint Stock Company (HVT, HNX) , ex-dividend date January 15th, ratio 150%.

Cash dividend payment schedule

*Ex-dividend date: This is the trading day on which a buyer, upon establishing ownership of the shares, will no longer be entitled to related rights such as the right to receive dividends or the right to subscribe to newly issued shares, but will still retain the right to attend the shareholders' meeting.

Code	Floor	Ex-dividend date	TH Day	Proportion
TNG	HNX	January 13th	January 22nd	4%
LSS	HOSE	January 14th	April 15th	5%
SEB	HNX	January 15th	January 24th	10%
NSC	HOSE	January 17th	February 19th	20%

Source: https://pnvnweb.dev.cnnd.vn/chung-khoan-tuan-13-1-17-1-vn-index-co-the-ve-vung-1200-diem-truoc-nhieu-ap-luc-20250113070436689.htm