Investment analysis
Asean Securities (Aseansc) : The market experienced a relatively strong fluctuation after a surge. Market liquidity continuously improved and remained significantly higher than the 20-day average, reflecting the influx of large capital.
Aseansc believes the market is still in an uptrend; however, the VN-Index is likely to face downward pressure to around 1,100 points in the next few sessions to absorb short-term profit-taking. Therefore, Aseansc maintains its recommendation to closely monitor market movements, and investors should avoid chasing prices, taking advantage of VN-Index fluctuations to restructure their portfolios.
Vietcombank Securities (VCBS): From a technical perspective, selling pressure towards the end of the afternoon session prevented the VN-Index from maintaining its strong upward momentum, forming an inverted hammer candlestick. Looking at the hourly chart, both MACD and RSI indicators are in high territory, forming their first peak and beginning to weaken. Given the current developments, the VN-Index may still experience some fluctuations during the session, but the probability of a short-term correction has increased.
VCBS maintains its view, recommending that investors proactively plan short-term trading, considering selling a portion of their holdings and then buying back during intraday corrections, or maintaining buying power to look for opportunities to engage in T+ trading if the market experiences a correction to retest the nearest support zone around 1,080 – 1,085 points.
Saigon - Hanoi Securities (SHS): From a short-term perspective, the strong recovery has brought the VN-Index back above 1,100 points and broken free from the previous consolidation phase. However, this recovery is technical in nature because the VN-Index has lost its uptrend, and the sharp decline means that while the upward momentum may be strong, it is not sustainable.
The market may continue its recovery trend but will soon encounter short-term resistance at 1,150 points. SHS believes that the VN-Index will soon move towards short-term speculative trading to create a new medium-term accumulation base.
The market is showing a positive recovery trend after a sharp decline. In the short term, although the VN-Index may continue its upward trend, any short-term recovery efforts are technical in nature and carry risks. Medium- and long-term investors should continue to hold their portfolios, waiting for opportunities to invest further when the market stabilizes.
Stock market news brief
- China's deflationary recovery remains fragile. China returned to deflation in October 2023, indicating that the country of over a billion people is struggling to boost growth through domestic demand. The consumer price index (CPI) fell 0.2% in October 2023 after fluctuating near zero for the previous two months. The producer price index (PPI) fell 2.6%, marking the 13th consecutive month of decline. Previously, experts had forecast a 2.7% decrease.
- IMF: ECB needs to keep interest rates above 4% to “mitigate” inflation. Alfred Kammer, head of the IMF's European division, warned the ECB against cutting interest rates too soon, as this would force the institution to implement more costly tightening policies later. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) believes that rapid wage growth in the Eurozone could fuel further inflation. Therefore, the European Central Bank (ECB) should keep interest rates around record highs next year to “ease” price pressures .
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