VPI predicts gasoline prices will reverse and increase in the operating period on May 15

The Machine Learning-based gasoline price forecasting model of the Vietnam Petroleum Institute (VPI) shows that, in the operating period on May 15, 2025, retail gasoline prices may reverse and increase by 1.2 - 1.9% if the Ministry of Finance - Industry and Trade does not set aside or use the Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund.

Buying and selling gasoline at a business location in Hanoi . Photo: Tran Viet/VNA

According to Mr. Doan Tien Quyet, data analysis expert of VPI, the gasoline price forecasting model applying the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model and the supervised learning algorithm in Machine Learning of VPI predicts that the retail price of E5 RON 92 gasoline may increase by 225 VND (1.2%) to 18,995 VND/liter, while RON 95-III gasoline may increase by 374 VND (1.9%) to 19,544 VND/liter.

VPI's model predicts that the price of fuel oil may decrease by 326 VND (2.1%) to 15,204 VND/kg, while diesel is forecast to increase by 1% to 16,966 VND/liter, and kerosene may increase by a small 0.2% to 16,977 VND/liter. VPI predicts that the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Industry and Trade will continue not to set aside or use the Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund this time.

In the world market, in the session on May 12 (US time), Brent oil price increased by 1.6%, to 64.96 USD/barrel; US light sweet crude oil price (WTI) increased by 1.5%, to 61.95 USD/barrel. This is the highest increase of both oil standards since April 28.

Analysts say positive talks between the world’s two largest economies could boost crude oil demand as trade, which has been disrupted by massive tariffs imposed by both countries, resumes. Investors are hopeful that China’s economy will continue to grow in 2025 and demand for imported crude will increase accordingly, helping to improve global crude prices.

However, Toshitaka Tazawa, an analyst at Fujitomi Securities, said that the plan to increase production by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, also known as OPEC+, has limited the rise in oil prices, as the organization plans to accelerate the increase in production in May and June 2025, thereby adding crude oil to the market.

Still, a Reuters survey found OPEC oil output fell slightly in April 2025. Last week, energy services firm Baker Hughes said U.S. energy companies cut the number of active oil and natural gas rigs to their lowest level since January 2025.

Crude oil prices fell to a four-year low in April as investors worried that the US-China trade war could hurt economic growth and oil demand. In addition, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) decided to increase oil production more than previously expected.

According to VNA

Source: https://baoapbac.vn/kinh-te/202505/vpi-du-bao-gia-xang-dao-chieu-tang-trong-ky-dieu-hanh-ngay-155-1042370/