Rice exports are riding the market wave.

In the first four months of 2026, Vietnam's rice exports slowed down, reaching just over 3.3 million tons and earning approximately $1.57 billion, a decrease in both volume and value compared to the same period in 2025.

Packaging rice for export at Chơn Chính Import-Export Co., Ltd. ( Dong Thap province). (Photo: KHANH AN)

However, from the second quarter of 2026, the demand for rice imports is expected to recover, coupled with concerns about a decline in global supply, creating opportunities for the rice industry to closely monitor the market and regain its growth momentum.

Information from the Vietnam Food Association indicates that the global rice supply is facing the risk of shrinking as numerous producing countries are simultaneously affected by climate change, rising input costs, and geopolitical instability. In Asia, the Philippines is under significant pressure from extreme heat and the risk of El Niño affecting many regions. rice production Drought and cracked soil lead to a high risk of crop failure.

Meanwhile, conflicts in the Middle East and the risk of shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz have caused fuel and fertilizer prices to rise sharply, forcing many farmers in Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, and the Philippines to reduce fertilizer use or shrink their planted area because profits are insufficient to cover costs, which also affects the amount of rice supplied to the market.

Nguyen Van Sy Em, who cultivates 2 hectares of rice in Tan Long commune (Dong Thap province), said: "The prices of fertilizers, pesticides, fuel, and labor have all increased sharply recently, but the price of rice fluctuates erratically, sometimes falling below 5,000 VND/kg, leaving farmers with little profit, or even losses. Therefore, many are no longer enthusiastic about resuming production. Amid concerns about a decline in supply, many countries around the world are increasing their rice reserves to ensure supply." food security Domestic demand will continue to cause the amount of rice circulating in the international market to shrink further during the 2026-2027 period.

According to Mr. Le Thanh Tung, Secretary General of the Vietnam Rice Industry Association, in light of the impact of the Middle East conflict, Vietnam needs to persistently implement the Sustainable Development Project for one million hectares of high-quality, low-emission rice cultivation in the Mekong Delta to reduce the use of chemical-based inputs and other materials such as seeds and irrigation water, thereby reducing production costs. In addition to the one million-hectare project, depending on the ecological conditions of each region, it is possible to develop low-emission ecological rice farming areas and specialty rice farming areas, for example, the organic shrimp-rice rotation model in the Mekong Delta.

Regarding the impact of El Nino, localities need to immediately review and repair irrigation works, plan for shifting planting seasons, and transform the crop structure on rice land or inefficient rice crops. At the same time, policies should be implemented to support farmers in improving their adaptability to price fluctuations and climate change. Accordingly, farmers should be given access to preferential capital for rice production, land consolidation in accordance with the law, and support for loans to develop services supporting production in cooperatives and surrounding areas such as rice drying, mechanization, and agricultural services.

From an export perspective, Mr. Do Ha Nam, Chairman of the Vietnam Food Association, believes that it is necessary to continue removing barriers to export markets and logistics, especially in key markets such as China and the Philippines. Currently, China still manages rice imports through quotas and a list of authorized exporting enterprises; the Philippines manages through licensing mechanisms and declarations on rice import quotas. Therefore, the Association recommends that the Government and relevant ministries and agencies strengthen exchanges with importing countries to create more favorable conditions for rice trade. In addition, support should be given to businesses to expand into potential markets such as Africa to avoid dependence on a few large markets.

"In reality, as soon as news emerges that the Philippines is reducing rice imports, many businesses immediately rush to sell off their stock to maintain market share and clear inventory. When a large supply is released onto the market in a short period, prices immediately plummet. As a result, export businesses face difficulties, and farmers suffer losses," Mr. Nam emphasized.

Besides market bottlenecks, issues related to rising logistics costs, empty container shortages, route reductions, and fluctuating shipping surcharges are also putting significant pressure on rice exports. Therefore, many businesses are petitioning authorities to strengthen cooperation with shipping companies to stabilize shipping schedules, limit route reductions, control surcharges, and support businesses in accessing empty containers during peak periods.

At the same time, continue to promote investment and upgrade logistics infrastructure, especially in the Mekong Delta region; develop warehousing systems, waterway transport, and transshipment capacity to serve the rice industry in order to reduce costs and enhance the competitiveness of Vietnamese rice in the international market.

Source: https://baoquangninh.vn/xuat-khau-gao-don-song-thi-truong-3407358.html