Wood exports avoided the tax shock at the beginning of the year.

The US has decided to postpone the increase in import tariffs on certain finished wood products from January 1, 2026, to January 1, 2027. This helps Vietnamese wood businesses avoid a tariff shock at the beginning of the year, giving them the opportunity to maintain orders, stabilize prices, and have more time to adjust their market strategies.

Exports of wood and forestry products are expected to reach approximately US$18.5 billion in 2025. Photo: VGP

Postpone the tax increase, not the tax imposition.

On December 31, 2025, US President Donald Trump signed a proclamation adjusting import tariff policies on wood, lumber, and wood-derived products under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. Accordingly, the US decided to postpone the tariff increase on certain finished wood products such as upholstered chairs, kitchen cabinets, and bathroom cabinets from January 1, 2026, to January 1, 2027.

Previously, according to Statement No. 10976 issued in September 2025, imported timber products into the US were subject to a 10% tariff on raw timber and a 25% tariff on processed products, with these rates projected to increase to 30% and 50% respectively starting in early 2026.

Postponing the implementation of higher tariffs means that current tariffs will remain in place until 2026. The US stated that this decision aims to create room for ongoing trade negotiations while also serving the goals of ensuring economic security and supply chain stability.

Notably, the tariff levels in the coming period will depend directly on the outcome of negotiations, indicating that tariffs continue to be used as a strategic negotiating tool, rather than purely as a trade protection measure.

According to the Department of Foreign Market Development ( Ministry of Industry and Trade ), in essence, this is not a decision to postpone the imposition of tariffs, but merely to delay the tariff increase. Imported wood products into the United States are still subject to tariffs under Section 232, at a rate of 10% for raw wood and 25% for processed products.

Given that Vietnam's wood product exports to the US are expected to maintain positive growth in 2025, this decision is considered to have a significant impact, helping businesses avoid the tax shock right from the beginning of the year, thereby maintaining orders, stabilizing selling prices, and giving them more time to adjust their market strategies.

The Foreign Market Development Department also noted that the postponement of the Section 232 tariff increase is entirely unrelated to the final rulings of the U.S. Supreme Court on the reciprocal tariff order. This is because the Section 232 tariff is enacted on the basis of national security and falls under the authority of the executive branch, with a separate legal mechanism from reciprocal tariffs applied under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). Therefore, regardless of any judicial adjustments related to the reciprocal tariff, the tariffs on timber under Section 232 remain in effect independently.

It's okay, but not safe yet.

The Foreign Market Development Department warns that, in the medium term, the policy landscape remains fraught with risks. The US is expanding its investigation and applying Section 232 to a range of other imported goods, and it is not ruled out that tariffs will continue to be adjusted to serve trade negotiations or address internal economic and political pressures in 2026.

For Vietnam's timber industry, 2026 should therefore be viewed as a period of "relative stability but not yet security," requiring businesses to closely monitor policy developments, proactively engage in dialogue with the US side, and prepare long-term response scenarios, the Department of Foreign Market Development noted.

In 2025, despite the impact of international market fluctuations and climate change, Vietnam's forestry sector is expected to maintain positive growth, achieving and exceeding many important targets. Exports of wood and forestry products are projected to reach approximately US$18.5 billion, a 6.6% increase compared to 2024, further solidifying its role as one of the key export sectors of agriculture and making a significant contribution to the economy.

According to the Department of Forestry and Forest Protection (Ministry of Agriculture and Environment), in 2025 the forestry sector is expected to achieve a trade surplus of nearly US$14.9 billion; the total production value of the sector will increase by 5.6-5.8%, equivalent to 103% of the plan. The forest cover rate will be maintained at 42.03%; the number of forestry law violations will decrease by 13.8%, while the area of ​​forest burned and affected will both decrease by over 10%.

Forest planting efforts continued to be intensified, reaching 284,646 hectares, achieving 109.5% of the planned target. The area of ​​forests certified for sustainable forest management increased by nearly 120,000 hectares, bringing the total certified area nationwide to approximately 730,000 hectares. The supply of timber from planted forests reached approximately 24.6 million cubic meters, meeting the needs for processing and export.

Entering 2026, the forestry sector aims to maintain timber export turnover at approximately US$18.5 billion, while focusing on developing large-scale timber forests, promoting the application of science and technology, and digital transformation. Alongside this, it will strengthen trade promotion, diversify export markets, reduce dependence on a few key markets, and gradually build the "Vietnamese Wood" brand in the international market.

Source: https://daibieunhandan.vn/xuat-khau-go-tranh-duoc-cu-soc-thue-dau-nam-10402508.html