“Red mirage” changes US election results, Ms. Harris worries about mixed reactions from Mr. Trump

VOV.VN - The Democratic Party has prepared for the prospect of a "red mirage" on November election night that could lead to a series of strong reactions from former President Trump, as he did in 2020. Observers are also concerned about the possibility of another riot at the Capitol if Mr. Trump loses the election.

“Red mirage” in US election

Throughout American political history, most voters have cast ballots in person on Election Day, making the counting relatively simple. However, since 2000, the popularity of voting by mail and provisional ballots has increased, forcing election boards to extend their hours beyond Election Night. This trend has been especially strong in 2020, as more voters have turned to mail-in and absentee voting during the Covid-19 pandemic. The partisan divide over the adoption of these alternative voting methods has had a significant impact on election results.

The term “red mirage” was coined then, describing the phenomenon in which “red party” candidates appeared to have a large advantage on election night but this advantage gradually decreased as more mail-in ballots supporting the Democrats were counted.

Mr. Trump (left) and Ms. Harris (right). Photo: Getty

At this point, the US media is still “holding its breath” waiting for the prospect that former President Donald Trump will end the election early and declare victory before all the votes are counted, as he did in 2020. Putting his faith in the “red mirage” on election night, November 3, 2020, Mr. Trump claimed victory over his opponent Joe Biden, although the election results in the battleground states were still too close to predict. This move has been met with harsh criticism from Republicans who are with Mr. Trump. Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie called it “a bad political decision,” while former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum also disagreed with the statements of the former White House boss. Days later, after the results were confirmed in a Democratic victory, Trump immediately called on Georgia to “find 11,780 votes” to overturn the state’s results, claiming the election was “stolen.” With just two weeks to go until Election Day, Vice President Kamala Harris said she was preparing for Trump to use the same tactic this time around. She told NBC News that Democrats “have the resources and the expertise” to respond to the former president’s false belief in the “red mirage” on election night.

How does Trump's "red mirage" affect the US election results?

Bob Beatty, chair of the political science department at Washburn University, told Newsweek that the best way to predict Trump's next move is to look at "his past actions and words." "He will most likely declare the election over early regardless of the outcome. This could cast doubt on the vote count that comes after his declaration and even encourage some local officials to not continue counting ballots, since Trump has already declared victory," Beatty said. However, Sylvia Albert, a policy adviser to the Democratic Party and a representative of the organization Common Cause, said it would be fine for Trump to try to declare victory early because elections are decided by voters, not candidates. "We expect candidates to let the voters have their say and respect the will of the voters, whether they win or lose," she said. "The electoral system itself ensures that the will of the people is respected, regardless of what the candidates may say." Trump appears to have changed his stance on early voting this year, after he and his Republican allies had previously opposed it. In the final weeks of the campaign, he sought to expand early voting in the swing state of North Carolina and appeared in other battlegrounds to urge people to make up their minds early. "I think early voting is good, but people have different feelings about it. But the most important thing is you have to get out and vote, and I will," Trump said in a recent interview with Fox News. Early data suggests the Republican effort to encourage early voting is working. Nearly 25 million Americans have already cast ballots nationwide, according to a study by the University of Florida Election Lab. That includes a large number of registered Republicans who went to the polls ahead of Election Day; 1.1 million Republicans voted in person, more than 990,248 Democrats. The Trump campaign said the data showed Republicans had regained the lead over Democrats. "It's too early to declare victory, but our changes are very positive," said James Blair, Trump's political director.

Will the results be the same?

Schultz said there is little chance of a “red mirage” arising from Trump’s early voting efforts. With more Republicans voting earlier than usual, the former president could fall behind on Election Day, forcing him to change his calculations about how he declares victory early. But in any scenario, Schultz does not see the former president “conceding.” “If Trump falls behind on Election Day, he’ll say the election is rigged. If he’s ahead, he’ll declare victory and the new votes are fraudulent,” Schultz said. Beatty also warned that if Harris wins, Trump will begin “a steady stream of lawsuits to stop the certification of the Electoral College,” especially if Republicans retain their majority in the House.

Riot at the Capitol on January 6, 2021. Photo: Wisconsin Examiner

The riot at the Capitol on January 6, 2021, has led some observers to question whether Trump will accept defeat peacefully to Ms. Harris. According to David Schultz, a professor of political and legal science at Hamline University, the possibility that Mr. Trump will "jump the trigger" and declare victory early could create a similar political dynamic as in the previous election. The former President would not face any legal trouble for such a declaration; however, this action could be seen as a political move, "hitting directly at the psychology of standing up to protect the fairness of America" from supporters in case the final vote count turns in a direction that Mr. Trump does not expect. However, Ms. Karoline Leavitt, a spokeswoman for Mr. Trump's election campaign, quickly denied the speculation. "There was a peaceful transfer of power in 2020 and it will continue into 2024. Mr. Trump has been clear: We must have free and fair elections," Ms. Leavitt told reporters on October 23.

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