Questions about the prospects of FPT shares.

The constant fluctuations in FPT's share price raise many questions about the company's prospects in the context of a rapidly changing global and domestic technology market.

Prices dropped sharply.

The trading session on March 19, 2024, marked the strongest sell-off by foreign investors inFPT Corporation's shares. Foreign investors sold over 10 million shares while only buying over 2 million units, pushing the net selling value to over one trillion VND and making it the most heavily sold stock on the market.

This was the strongest net selling session by foreign investors in FPT in over a year. The most recent net selling session exceeding one trillion VND was on March 7, 2024, with a value of over 1,436 billion VND.

Under this intense pressure, FPT dropped more than 5.4 points, equivalent to -4.15%, becoming the stock that weighed down the VN-Index the most that day.

Previously, on March 14, 2025, foreign investors also sold a large quantity of FPT shares. Over 53.5 million FPT shares were dumped by foreign investors, while they only bought nearly 5 million shares. With this difference, the net selling value of FPT reached 646.4 billion VND in just one trading session.

FPT shares have been continuously sold by foreign investors since March 5th. The most recent net buying session was on March 4th, with a net buying value of over 27 billion VND. Meanwhile, from February 19th to March 18th, the net selling value reached 3,852 billion VND.

The foreign ownership limit at FPT also dropped to just 43.96% at the end of trading on March 18th, creating a large gap of up to 5%, the largest gap in many years. Previously, the foreign ownership limit was consistently filled to a maximum of 49%.

The withdrawal of foreign investors from this leading technology stock has created considerable concern about FPT's investment prospects, while domestic capital is insufficient to alleviate the pressure from the net selling by foreign investors.

The highest price for FPT shares to date was set on January 23, 2025, closing at VND 154,300 per share, an increase of 87% compared to the beginning of 2024. However, investors who bought FPT shares during this historic trading session are now suffering significant losses, as the stock price has since fallen continuously with no sign of stopping.

Immediately after the Lunar New Year holiday, in the first trading session of the Year of the Snake, FPT shares fell by 5.15%, wiping out over 11 trillion VND in market capitalization for this technology giant. This downward pressure occurred at FPT in particular, and technology stocks on the exchange in general, following the launch of China's low-cost artificial intelligence (AI) model, DeepSeek, raising concerns about fierce competition.

As of the close of trading on March 19th, after another day of decline, FPT's share price fell to 124,600 VND/share, a 19% decrease from its peak at the end of January 2025 and returning to the price range of July 2024.

Risks and opportunities

In fact, the wave of affordable AI is still putting pressure on the technology industry as a whole. Market sentiment is being affected by the emergence of low-cost AI models, raising concerns about the decline in the market value of AI – a field in which FPT is investing heavily.

Under that pressure, FPT's leadership affirmed that models like DeepSeek do not significantly affect the efficiency of FPT AI Factory. However, the sell-off by investors shows a fear of fierce competition and the potential for reduced profit margins for FPT in the future. Globally , many stocks of other tech giants like NVIDIA have also been significantly affected.

FPT can be considered a "rare find" on the Vietnamese stock market, as technology stocks still account for a low proportion and the market lacks the presence of major technology companies.

In 2024, FPT dominated the market, continuously reaching new price peaks, with each increase setting a new record. Despite experiencing periods of profit-taking, the upward trend at FPT lasted for quite a while, until the end of January 2025.

Affordable AI could create fierce competition, but it also presents opportunities for technology companies. FPT, which set records for revenue and profit in 2024, continues to set targets of VND 75,400 billion in revenue and VND 13,395 billion in pre-tax profit for 2025, equivalent to a growth rate of 20-21%. This target will be presented at FPT's 2025 Annual General Meeting of Shareholders.

Recently, KBSV has continued to offer positive assessments of FPT's prospects. The strong trend of using AI for innovation in businesses and organizations to improve business efficiency will drive global spending on software and IT services. According to Gartner, total global spending on software/IT services will grow by 14% and 9.4% respectively by 2025, as businesses accelerate digital transformation to adopt new technologies. Therefore, according to KBSV, FPT is expected to continue keeping pace with new trends, aiming to boost investment in key markets.

The AI ​​Factory project, with a total investment of $100 million, is expected to complete FPT's product ecosystem, helping the company seize opportunities to expand into the Japanese market. Estimated revenue in Japan for 2025-2026 is projected to reach VND 15,700 - VND 20,060 billion, equivalent to an annual growth rate of 27-29%.

In the US and European markets, the management service contracts that FPT has signed will secure work for FPT for the next 3-5 years and will be the driving force for sustained high revenue growth of 15-20%. Therefore, KBSV expects FPT's information technology segment to grow by over 24%.

Previously, SSI had reduced its revenue estimates for the FPT AI Factory Project and the education segment due to slower-than-expected project implementation progress and continued enrollment difficulties within the FPT education system in 2024. However, SSI still forecasts double-digit growth for FPT in 2025 (revenue increase of 19%), with the technology segment continuing to be the main growth driver.